For you robed readers out there, calling balls and strikes and struggling to find ways to deny motions to suppress ("While it's true the defendant was beaten to confess, he is guilty, the crime is bad, and the court must balance that against ethereal "rights" in the Constitution which was written at a time when hanging and flogging were accepted.") we will guide you through the situation in Russia.
Russia has two armies. The Russian army, which has proven as effective as the French Army against Germans, and the Wagner Group, a mercery army run by Yvgeny Prigozhin (YP), a cook and restauranteur. It's sort of like if the guys who run Prime 112 raised an army and invaded Hialeah. ("They are lobbing baked potatoes and truffle butter and the people are taking shelter and eating pastellitos... It's chaos....")
For a few weeks now YP has been feuding with the Russian Army generals. YP accused the Russian military of treason for not adequately supplying Wagner troops with supplies needed to fight Ukraine. It may have peaked Friday night when YP claimed a Russian military strike on a Wagner military camp. This has led to a very warm (but not yet hot) conflict. There's a lot to consider here.
First, how much civilian support does Putin have? Will it take a little or a lot for YP to get the support of the people?
Second, YP needs access to media beyond social media to get his word out. Watch for Putin to shut down his access to television and radio.
Third, How tightly will Putin hang on to power? Will he order the Russian Military to engage the Wagner group and will the military follow those orders while Ukranian missiles, drones and artillery are falling on them?
Fourth- can YP make an alliance with Ukraine? Should he? What will that do?
Fifth- the control of nuclear forces. Watch this closely.
Sixth- the market will fall Monday so hang on Sloopy, hang on...
CRISIS IN NYC
We will be updating you as needed. But for now we bring to your attention a more immediate crisis unfolding in NYC where we are currently staying for a short period of time until our EDNY judge issues the order "and therefore the defense motion to dismiss is GRANTED."
4 comments:
I know nothing about international politics.But it seems to me this might be all about money that Putin owes YP for the use of his army. And a few minutes ago, problem solved, YP got his money wired to some off shore bank account. I don't quite get the Belarus part of the deal however. Also, don't see YP lasting until 2024. Very brutal cast of characters.
Can't wait for the NetFlix series.
Rump, from another view YP’s move could be a diversion ( see The Art of War) . The amnesty by Belarus is part of a movement of YP and Wagner to relocate in southern Belarus just above the Ukrainian norther border . Afterwards Putin renews the attack in eastern Ukrainian regions while Wagner does a blitz crossing the Bela Rus/ Ukrainian border and travels a hour south to take Kiev .
In the traditional Russian view,
So what if a few dozen Russian soldiers died on this diversion/ trick , that is a small price. Remember Napoleon and the Russian winter or Stalingrad , how many Russians were scarified to defeat an enemy.
YP has explained that he is not a cook, only a restaurateur.
The markets held and Snap was up 3 percent - purchased it last week. Buy Airbnb and hold.
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