Today is 9/1. Take a moment. You know what to do.
This is the day we all wait for. Football. Food. Fun. Betting. Picks. Plays. Points. Totals. Teasers. Survivor Pool and Fantasy Football. Upsets. Overtimes. Pizza and beer and betting.
This is shaping up to be a great year despite the fact that as defending champ in the REGJB Fantasy Football league the draft occurred without us. Our carefully laid plans of a breakout rookie running back that we have used to win our league multiple times (last year it was Najee Harris, a few years ago it was Saquon Barkley the same year a second year QB named Mahomes had his breakout year and we had him) were dashed. So was our sleeper defense pick- The Chargers.
Speaking of which, Your 2023 Super Bowl will see your San Diego Chargers playing and beating the boys from Philly- Fly Eagles Fly. Want an underdog sleeper to ride to the playoffs? Try your Indianapolis Colts. Want a bust? Tampa looks in disarray and those cheaters from NE are due for their QB to have a second-year slump. Today's Cowboy-Bucs and Fins-Cheaters games will tell us a lot. We are also watching the Bengals to see how they re-bound, and the wheels are already off the bus on last year's Champs the Rams.
Our Super Bowl pick, the Chargers have a rough opening two games- a resurgent Raiders offense will test their newly revamped defense and our belief they got it right, and then they head to KC which is always a tough game in the Mahomes era. For SD to make good on our pick, they need to go 1-1 in the first two games.
Are the Jags on the right track? 9-8 would be a great season for them. Ditto the J...E...T....S. The NY Football Giants? They are on the clock for the number one pick in the 2023 NFL draft. Tough times are ahead for Big Blue. Same is true for the Seahawks, and count us out for a seat on the Broncos Bus. We don't see it.
The Cleveland Browns are going nowhere fast, while the Steelers still have offensive line problems from last year. A decent performance from QB Mitch Trubitsky could help Mike Tomlin avoid his first losing season, but their o-line will be the downfall from a team talented at just about every other position.
And then there are your Miami Dolphins. It is Tua Time. Make or break time. If Tua steps up, your Miami Dolphins could be headed to the playoffs, but they cannot beat the Bills. Alas, we do not see it. While we think they might win today, the Cheaters are not the team to be measured by-witness their blow-out by the Bills last year. A 9-8 season means yet another cleaning of the roster in Miami Gardens. And we will not soon forgive them for firing perhaps the best young coach in the league- Brian Flores, who Mike Tomlin immediately snapped up as an assistant D coordinator.
The NFL MVP? Chargers QB Justin Herbert with Bills QB right behind him, along with Bills Von Miller as the Defensive Player of the year.
Breakout rookie? Steeler WR George Pickens looks hot, but he has a few top WRs above him to break through. Ditto Chargers WR Palmer. Jets Rookie RB Hall looks good as well. All of these would be good picks in a fantasy legacy league.
Congrats to Robin Faber who was the only one to nail the Thursday night total of 41- he gets a second week pass in the Survivor Pool. No one hit the exact game score of Bills 31-10, so no one wins an extra life. We will post the Survivor Pool later- and this year we have a record number of players seeking to knock off Feet of Clay Kaeiser- last year's champ.
WEEK ONE PICKS
We are riding the Chargers to the SB, and that starts with -3 over the Raiders to start the season. We also like under 53.
We are also riding the Eagles on the road at Detroit giving 3.5. Some lines are 4, but enough money went on Detroit that the line is moving down. If you can find 3.5 grab a Cheesesteak and bet Philly. LOSS
Niners at Da Bears. A couple of new starting QBs (Lance and Fields) and the rain in Chicago make under 41 our pick. Last we checked it was POURING RAIN in Chicago. (hat tip- Overlay Ernie, the top Vegas totals guy for the last 20 years. The dude hasn't worked a day since we've known him, and all he does is point totals in NFL, NBA and MLB, and he lives in a mansion in the Vegas dessert and has a chalet in Staad, so he appears to know what he's doing. He's so good most books have banned him and he has to use runners). WIN
Browns at Panthers. Baker was traded from Cleveland to Carolina. Neither team inspires, but when in doubt bet against the Mistake On The Lake. Panthers at home -1.5. FYI Browns are 0-16-1 in last 17 openers. Talk about your slow starters.
Titans -5.5 at home over the Giants. Should be -7. The Giants are that bad.
Teasers for week one. In a teaser bet you can move the line 6 points or 6.5 or 7 and the payout changes with the number you tease and the number of teams you pick. Take a look.
Teaser One 6 Points-2 teams: Titans at home -tease -5.5 to +.5 (6 point swing) AND Ravens tease -7 over the Jets to Ravens -1. Bet a 110 to win 100 but both Titans and Ravens must win.
Teaser Two- 7 Points-2 teams. Bet 120 to win 100 and both teams must win. 49ers Bears tease the under from 41 to 48 AND Titans -5.5 to Titans +1.5 over Giants.
Teaser Three 7 points and 3 teams Bet 100 to win 150. Note how in teaser 2 when you tease seven points with two games you have to lay 120 to win 100 but when you tease seven points in three games you lay 100 to win 150. It's that hard, even with an extra seven points per game, to win all three bets. This is a sucker bet, but it's fun to play with, however if you want to really do this every week, email us and we will book it for you. We want a new Tesla.
Colts tease -8 over the Texans to -1; KC and Cardinals tease the over down from 54 to 47; and Panthers tease -1.5 to plus 5.5 over the Browns. Remember to win, we have to hit all three. Do not do this for real with anything other than Starbucks money.
Survivor Pool UPDATE TWO: 9 MORE PLAYERS WENT DOWN WHEN THE GIANTS UPSET THE TITANS- about half the survivor pool went down in week one. ce la vie.
UPDATE WE HAVE FOUR PLAYERS OUT - TWO WITH THE BENGALS on a wild OT loss where arguably the best kicker in the league missed the extra point to give the Bengals the win as time expired in the 4th quarter and then a 29 FG for the win in OT. The Steeler kicker then boinked a 55 yarder in OT off the left upright before winning it with a 54 yarder as time ran out. Two players also had the 49ers on week one.
Book1 SURVIVOR Week One by Anonymous PbHV4H on Scribd