WHEN YOU'RE RIGHT YOU'RE RIGHT

 Feb 2015 When you are right you are right!

WE AGREE 

NO EXCUSES! 

And when you're right- you are right. "Tariffs are a sure road to doom and disaster." 

Well said Mitt. 

WHAT TO DO? 

We do not love giving investment advice on this platform. But here's a few things to keep in mind. The greatest stock investor of our generation- Warren Buffet said this: "When people are fearful be greedy. When people are greedy be fearful."  The VIX- known as the "fear index" went from mid-teens during the bull market last month to over 30 on Friday. People are fearful.  So do with Warren Buffet said to do. Be greedy. 

Amazon is, after Friday, trading at 15 times cash flow- the lowest in its entire history. Free cash flow is expected to grow 33% a year for the next five years. Its forward PE is similar to 2009. They are building their own chips. They currently deploy 750,000 robots. They have the 3rd largest digital ad business. $amzn is a Rumpole buy. 

So is Nvidia. It is the leader in AI chips and its moat is at least five years wide. There are 300 Billion with a B commitments to new data center spending for FY 2026 and that is firm. and 95% of that spending will include putting Nvidia's new generation of chips in those data centers. Nvidia is the only AI chip game in town for the next five years. If you have ANY worries (and Nvidia has literally doubled our own considerable wealth in the last 18 months) then Taiwan Semi Conductor is a solid second choice. Semiconductors are exempt from the tariffs and $TSM has committed to investing 100 Billion with B dollars in US manufacturing plants over the next four years. #TSM is playing the game and the current administration the way it needs to be played. 

Final thought. The 20 worst days in stock market history since 1970 have been followed by ten of the best days over the next month. 

Look at it another way. There is not one time- NOT ONE- that a stock market correction has not been followed by a larger rally, Not one time. True- the 2007 downturn took five years to recover. But that was an anomaly. Usually a large downturn is followed by a larger rally within six months. Think of what happened during Covid. The shutdown caused a massive selloff (we began our third serious accumulation of Amazon at that point- our first was 1999) which was followed by a sustained rally. If you do not need the money today, tomorrow, or next week, the time to buy is coming up. 

The market has not hit a bottom. The bottom occurs when everyone who is afraid has sold all they have. There are technical indicators we use to find a bottom- and it is near. But if you do not care to time the market, and have a 1-5 year horizon on investing, then just start buying. 10 share of Amazon and Nvidia every day until you've spent your nest egg. Then relax, have a beer and watch some baseball.  

If you have ANY concerns- just reread what Warren Buffet said to do- then do it. 

NO FOOLIN

 From DOM's blog: 

The Henry Latimer Center for Professionalism and the Standing Committee on Professionalism have named Chief Judge Cecilia M. Altonaga of the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Florida and Judge Miguel de la O of the 11th Judicial Circuit as co-winners of the 2025 William M. Hoeveler Judicial Professionalism Award.

The annual award recognizes active judges who exemplify strength of character, service, and competence as a jurist, lawyer, and public servant.

Chief Judge Altonaga and Judge de la O “demonstrate the ideals of professionalism and justice while inspiring others to do the same,” according to the Center for Professionalism.

Rumpole says: Well done to both judges. As to our milieu, Judge De La O has now long been known as the go-to judge for fairness and decency in the REGJB. No DeSantis drone he. 

As to our post on April 1, the sad thing is that some readers thought the press release from the SAO no longer cowering to the victim's wishes was true. Would that it were so. But we do not live in a time of heroes. We live in a time of cowards. 

Which brings us to the president's tariffs. 

You will be glad to know that Bangladesh won't be pushing the US around anymore. The President has slapped that economic powerhouse with double digit tariffs. And the good news for South Floridians is that if you want to make a reservation for a weekend at a beach motel in Dania, you can now do so, as Canadians are staying away from the US in droves. 

Can you blame them? 

And on and on it goes, because we live in a time of cowards and not heroes, as large law firms and universities are demonstrating in droves. 

A NEW DAY

 Some positive news from the SAO today in a news release: 

“As of today the Miami Dade State attorney’s office will no longer make plea offers based on the victim wanting the max.  We will now evaluate a case based on principles of justice and individual facts and not let the understandable emotions of a victim dictate how we proceed.” 

Rumpole says : long overdue. 

Did you know ? Apple 🍎was founded today on April 1 1976? 

Rumors of a state of Florida Doge- like committee are circulating.  Things being considered - 1) eliminating bathrooms for judicial chambers; 2) eliminating diversity training for all state employees; 3) implementing minimum mandatory prison sentences for being homeless ; 4) eliminating drug court and veterans court as wasteful efforts that embrace DEI ; 5) criminalizing the use of transgender pronouns; 6)criminalizing the existence of charitable food banks in communities; 7) mandating all state employees receive two hours of training in the science that there is no such thing as global warming; 8) requiring all state agencies to begin every meeting with a prayer recognizing that Jesus Christ is the lord and savior. 9) Any state employee with a degree from Colombia University between 2010-2025 will be summarily dismissed  

Sounds good to us. 

SUNNY MONDAY

 It's a new week and the sun is out. Here's our thoughts.

Need a continuance in federal court? Here's a quick out. Become of counsel to one of those firms that the Idiot has attacked. Part of his executive order bars their employees from entering federal buildings. 

"Dear Judge Altonaga- I must inform you that I cannot try the case set next week. The President has barred employees from Wilmer Hale from entering the premises of federal buildings, and I recently became of counsel to Wilmer Hale. I'd be happy to see if Judge Sayfie can lend us one of the State Courtrooms for this case."

El Herald reports that Canadians are canceling their vacation plans to South Florida. Guess MAGA doesn't mean MFLGA. 

Meanwhile the SAO just keeps trying to hide from their malfeasance: "if we ignore it, it will go away"  which is not far removed from George Costanza's famous idiom "It's not a lie Jerry if you believe it".  No real remedial actions. They've done NOTHING to restore the Bench and Bar's confidence in their office. So call them out on it. If they make a promise in Court, remind the Judge what they have done and why you cannot take them at their word.

How's the economy treating you? Price of eggs dropped? Price of new cars dropped.? How's your 401K doing? Market have any confidence in The Idiot? Just asking. 

As for that third term? Just look at what Putin did and you'll understand what is in his feeble mind. 

Watch the special election for the seat vacated by ace National Security Advisor Mike Waltz in Florida's Sixth. A reliably R seat, the Dem has raised ten million and is making it a competitive race in a district The Idiot won by 30. It's a mostly older district. Hope they are enjoying themselves if they need to contact social security. Things are so bad at the agency the Idiot's henchman is gutting that supervisors are answering the receptionist's phones. The website was down four of the last ten days. MAGA so long as you're not a retiree who has paid their money into the system and now is a victim of a Government sponsored "Rug Pull". If you don't know what a RP is, Google it- or ask a 20 something.  

Meanwhile, it turns out Waltz friended a bunch of North Korean spies on Facebook and added them on his Snap and Tik Tok accounts. His Tik Tok is racking up some serious views as he posts our attack plans before they occur. The Idiot has mused about paying for military strikes by posting them first on Tik Tok and monetarizing social media to pay for the military. Can't argue with that reasoning. 

*NB: When we refer to him as The Idiot, it is an ironic play on the novel by Dostoevsky- a book we assure you he has never read.  

*NB is latin for Note Bene which means "note well" or "take note". 

NB our country is being run by amateurish fools. 

RAINY SUNDAY

 Let's talk about something different. 

We contend there are no more poetic words in any rock song than these from Thunder Road: 

So you're scared and you're thinking
That maybe we ain't that young anymore
Show a little faith, there's magic in the night
You ain't a beauty, but hey, you're alright
Oh, and that's alright with me

You can hide 'neath your covers and study your pain
Make crosses from your lovers, throw roses in the rain
Waste your summer praying in vain
For a savior to rise from these streets

Well now, I'm no hero, that's understood
All the redemption I can offer, girl, is beneath this dirty hood
With a chance to make it good somehow
Hey, what else can we do now?

Except roll down the window
And let the wind blow back your hair
Well, the night's busting open
These two lanes will take us anywhere
We got one last chance to make it real
To trade in these wings on some wheels
Climb in back, heaven's waiting down on the tracks

DUMB AND DUMBER

 Hillary Clinton called Trump dumb and his administration dumber in an op ed piece for the NY Times here. 

The Trump administration wanted to reply, but no one in the administration reads the Times. 

This was the opening line: 

It’s not the hypocrisy that bothers me; it’s the stupidity. 

Then it got worse.

Firing hundreds of federal workers charged with protecting our nation’s nuclear weapons is also dumb. So is shutting down efforts to fight pandemics just as a deadly Ebola outbreak is spreading in Africa. It makes no sense to purge talented generals, diplomats and spies at a time when rivals like China and Russia are trying to expand their global reach.

And then this: 

The Trump approach is dumb power. Instead of a strong America using all our strengths to lead the world and confront our adversaries, Mr. Trump’s America will be increasingly blind and blundering, feeble and friendless.

And this: 

Does anyone really think deleting tributes to the Tuskegee Airmen makes us more safe? The Trump Pentagon purged images of the plane that dropped the atomic bomb that ended World War II because its name is the Enola Gay. Dumb

(The answer is yes. The idiots Trump appointed to run the Pentagon think its more important to remove pictures of the Enola Gay then keep tight security on impending military action) 

All of this is both dumb and dangerous. And I haven’t even gotten to the damage Mr. Trump is doing by cozying up to dictators like Russia’s Vladimir Putin, blowing up our alliances — force multipliers that extend our reach and share our burdens — and trashing our moral influence by undermining the rule of law at home. 

And this gem: 

Diplomacy is cost-effective, especially compared with military action. Preventing wars is cheaper than fighting them. Mr. Trump’s own former secretary of defense Jim Mattis, a retired Marine Corps four-star general, told Congress, “If you don’t fund the State Department fully, then I need to buy more ammunition.”

And she ended with this:

If America is ruled like a banana republic, with flagrant corruption and a leader who puts himself above the law, we lose that argument. We also lose the qualities that have made America exceptional and indispensable.

BASEBALL OPENING DAY 2025

March 27, 2025 Legal Update: 

David O Markus. Lauren Krasnoff. Month plus trial. 

Wait for it....

NOT GUILTY!!!!  Congrats!!! 

IT'S OPENING DAY!
For legions of die-hard fans who closed out the fall of last year stating "wait till next year!", next year is here. 

Just to hit the ball and touch 'em all –
a moment in the sun; It's gone and you can tell that one goodbye!
John Fogerty, Centerfield.
  
This is a blog tradition. We run this post most years. Baseball is important to us.

The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. America has rolled by like an army of steamrollers. It has been erased like a blackboard, rebuilt and erased again. But baseball has marked the time. This field, this game: it's a part of our past, Ray. It reminds of us of all that once was good and it could be again. Ohhh... people will come Ray. People will most definitely come. Terrance Mann, Field Of Dreams.



Baseball follows no time. It has a rhythm of it’s own. It’s the only major sport without a time clock.  But now it has a pitch clock and we are not a fan. The strategy is to control the man. Control the match-up.

No matter how you play it, its 3 men up and three men down for nine innings.

It’s a game of statistics- do you bring in your right-handed reliever to face the other teams big right-handed hitter? The stats say yes. And yet…

it’s a game of hunches. When Tommy Lasorda called an injured Kirk Gibson off the bench in Game 1 of the 1988 World Series in the 9th inning, one on, two out, the Dodgers behind 4-3, and the future Hall of Fame Pitcher Dennis Eckersley on the mound , he did so on a hunch. Announcer Jack Buck called the home run, and was moved to exclaim “I don’t believe what I just saw.”

It’s a game of senses.

The glimpse of the green grass in Centerfield when you first walk into Yankee Stadium.
The smell of cut grass and fresh dirt.
The sting of a foul ball off a wood bat on a cold March morning.
The sound of the pop of the ball in the catcher's glove.

Little boys and girls  learn that when they hurt themselves in the game, to rub some dirt on it. Is there any more valuable lesson in life?

The moments are magical, yet simple. It's why memories remain so clear in the rheumy eyes of old men who once played the game.

To take the wide turn past second, stretch a double into a triple, dive in head first, stand up, and dust yourself off.

To move to your own rhythm while you crouch with your glove off of third base, (the hot corner) each hand on a knee, eyes wide as the ball comes off the bat. You scoop up the one hopper and make the throw to first.

Roberto Clemente in game 7 against the Orioles catching the ball in deep right field, whirling and firing a strike to third base- the best throw in the history of the game. 

Willie Mays stalking center field, gliding under a fly ball. 

Hammerin Hank Aaron hitting another one out.

Pudge Fisk hopping and jumping and waving that ball fair.

Mets/ Red Sox. Game six, 1986. Do we need to say anything more?

October 13, 1960. A fading fall light in Pittsburgh. Seventh game of the world series. Ralph Terry on the mound for the Yanks for the bottom of the ninth. The game impossibly tied at 9-9. Bill Mazeroski, the Bucs light-hitting second baseman  takes the first pitch for a ball. The second pitch sails over a dejected Yogi Berra in left field as the city explodes and Maz dances around the bases in the only seventh game-9th inning walk off home run.

Young Dwight Gooden throwing heat, and then snapping off a curve (uncle Charlie, or Lord Charles) for a called third strike. Close your eyes and you can almost see Bob Gibson, standing on the mound in 1968, glaring, before throwing a hard high one inside.

Reggie hitting one out with his first swing on a cold October evening against the Dodgers in the 77 Series. And then another one with his first swing. And then, impossibly, another one with his first swing. Three swings, three home runs. In the World Series. 

Cleon Jones waiting under a fly ball hovering in an ice-blue New York October sky. The ball lands softly into his glove, and Jones falls to one knee for a minute as a man, and stands up as an immortal member of the 1969 Miracle Mets- the fly ball being the last out in the world series that the improbable Mets won. 

Any three guys turning a 4-6-3  double play, but Tinkers to Evans to Chance being the best.

There comes a time in a boy’s life when he stands there at home plate. It's hardball in an organized league. His first real “at bat.” The pitcher is a year older, and maybe thirty pounds heavier. The first pitch comes in so fast he can barely see it. It’s hard to believe anyone can throw that hard. And yet the boy stands there, rubbing some dirt on his hands as he re-grips his bat, kicks his cleats into the ground, and waves his bat. Hopefully menacingly. Just like he's seen it done on TV.

The pitch comes, and suddenly it's in slow motion. He can see the seams on the ball rotating. He can almost smell the ball as he swings. The bat glides across his hips and the plate. It all seems so simple, as a line drive bounces safely in the alley. He turns at first, saunters back, takes off his batting helmet and glove, and puts his foot on the bag, feeling it crunch beneath his foot. He may not know it, but his father is crying in the stands, and he has given himself a memory for life.

Young boys grow up and then grow old. They do their life's work and the game begins to fade away.
But every now and then, right around this time of year, they rummage through their closet and pull out a glove. Or maybe they go to the sporting goods store and buy one for themselves and one for their son or daughter. Then they sit  with their new glove that first night, showing their kid how to oil it up and put a ball in the pocket. And maybe it’s a family tradition to fold that oiled glove over a ball in the pocket and put that glove under your pillow.

And you smell the oil, and the rawhide, and you dream.

Just to hit the ball.
And touch them all.
A moment in sun.
It’s gone and you can kiss that one goodbye.

This is our favoutire post.