JUDICIAL ELECTIONS 2026 ... INCUMBENT VULNERABILITY QUOTIENT .....

THE CAPTAIN REPORTS:

ELECTION CENTRAL 2026 - PART ONE

The Qualifying period is fast approaching, and several new candidates have recently filed paperwork indicating their intent to run for judicial office. Qualifying Week is set for April 20-24, 2026, with the primary election scheduled for August 18.

COUNTY COURT

There are 11 incumbent judges up for election this cycle. Only one currently faces opposition. 

The headline: on April 1, perennial candidate Renier Diaz de la Portilla, filed to run in Group 38 of the County Court, challenging  incumbent Judge Gordon Murray, Sr.

You may recall that the last time we wrote about Diaz de la Portilla, he was challenging another County Court Judge - Fred Seraphin - in the 2022 election cycle. 

THE HISTORY OF CANDIDATE RENIER DIAZ DE LA PORTILLA

It’s a long one, so buckle up:

... 1996: Elected to the Miami-Dade School Board at the age of 25; served two years.

... 2000: Elected in a special election to the Florida House in District 115; served two years. 

... 2002: Lost re-election in the Republican primary to J.C. Planas, 45%-43%.

... 2006-2012: Returned to and served again on the School Board. 

... 2012: Ran in House District 103; lost to Manny Diaz Jr., 55%-39%.

... 2014: Ran for Circuit Court Judge; lost to Veronica Diaz 57%-43%.

... 2020: Ran for Miami-Dade County Commission, District 5; lost to Eileen Higgins, 53%-47%.

... 2022: Challenged incumbent Judge Fred Seraphin; lost 56%-44%.

In addition to these campaigns, Diaz de la Portilla has repeatedly sought appointment to the bench through the Judicial Nominating Commission (JNC),  without success:

... 2016 (early): Applied for an open County Court seat.

... 2016 (later): Again applied when two additional County Court seats became available.

... 2019: Applied and interviewed for one of four open County Court seats; the JNC forwarded 23 names to the Governor - his was not one of them. 

... 2020: Applied again for three open seats on the County Court; he was not appointed. 

In 2022, The Captain published several critical pieces regarding Diaz de la Portilla's campaign for his actions in his campaign against Judge Seraphin. The Daily Business Review subsequently reported on those issues quoted from our posts. For those interested, we encourage revisiting:

SHAME ON YOU RENIER DIAZ DE LA PORTILLA, posted on July 28, 2022, which can be found here

RENIER DIAZ DE LA PORTILLA - YOU ARE OUT OF ORDER, posted on August 9, 2022, which can be found here

GET OUT THE HANDCUFFS ??? HAVE THE DIAZ DE LA PORTILLA BROTHERS BROKEN THE LAW ???, posted on August 13, 2022, which can be found here

INCUMBENT VULNERABILITY QUOTIENT 

Back in 2022, we questioned why Diaz de la Portilla chose to challenge Judge Seraphin. Of the 15 Countyy Court Groups up for election, 12 incumbents went unopposed. Seraphin was one of four black judges running on the ballot that year, along with Miesha Darrough, Chiaka Ihekwaba, and Julie Harris Nelson. 

In the 2026 cycle, Murray is the only black judge of the 11 incumbents. We have no evidence that Diaz de la Portilla choices - either in 2022 or now -  were motivated by race.

To analyze competitiveness, we developed a metric: the Incumbent Vulnerability Quotient (IVQ), © 2026. The IVQ considers three factors:

1. Total contributions from donors (excluding candidate loans)

2. Number of individual contributors

3. Amount of money loaned by the candidate 

The higher the score, the more vulnerable the incumbent.

As of March 31, 2026, the most vulnerable incumbents are:

Natalie Moore (26)
Ritamaria Cuervo (25)
Luis Perez Medina (24)

Judge Moore, for example, ranked tenth of the eleven incumbents in both total contributions and number of contributors, and sixth in personal loans to her campaign - resulting in the highest IVQ score of 26. 

At the other end of the spectrum, the least vulnerable incumbents are:

Kevin Hellman (7)
Donald Cannava (9)
Stephanie Silver (11)

Where does incumbent Judge Gordon Murray, Sr. fall?

He ranked fourth - just behind Judge Silver - with an IVQ score of 11. In other words, there are seven incumbent judges statistically more vulnerable than Murray. 

Yet Murray is the one Diaz de la Portilla chose to challenge. 

Why? 

We asked Diaz de la Portilla that very question. If he responds, we will let you know.

CAPTAIN OUT .......
Captain4Justice@gmail.com

SO, YOU WANT TO BE A JUDGE ..... THEN THANK YOUR CAPTAIN JUSTICE .....

THE CAPTAIN REPORTS:

SOMETHING VERY FISHY IS GOING ON HERE…

Let’s start with the backstory.

When a judge resigns in the State of Florida, the process for filling that vacancy is governed by the Florida Constitution, Article V (Judiciary), Section 11 (Vacancies), paragraph )(c):

“The nominations shall be made within thirty days from the occurrence of a vacancy unless the period is extended by the governor for a time not to exceed thirty days. The governor shall make the appointment within sixty days after the nominations have been certified.”

In practice, the process begins when the Governor receives a judge’s resignation letter. The Governor then directs the local Judicial Nominating Commission (JNC) to accept applications, conduct interviews, and submit a list of three to six nominees. Once certified, the Governor has sixty days to make the appointment.

Now, here’s where things get unusual.

Sometime prior to August 2025, two Miami-Dade County Court judges resigned from the bench:

... Judge Jason Reding Quinones, who left after being nominated as United States Attorney for the Southern District of Florida; and

... Judge Yara Klukas, who resigned to become First Assistant United States Attorney under Reding Quinones.

Reding Quinones was sworn in on August 18, 2025. Klukas followed on September 26, 2025.

Yet—despite those resignations occurring at least eight months ago, and possibly earlier—neither vacancy was filled.

Your Captain Justice began asking questions.

In March, I sent multiple emails to Ryan Newman, General Counsel to Governor DeSantis, and Eliot Pedrosa, Chair of the Eleventh Circuit JNC. I also checked the Governor’s Judicial Appointments website, where resignation letters are typically posted as a matter of public record.

Nothing.

No resignation letters for either judge.

In seven years of tracking Governor DeSantis’ judicial appointments, I have never seen anything like this. Whether this was a clerical oversight or something more remains unclear.

Here is an abbreviated copy of my email to General Counsel Ryan Newman:

Captain Justice <captain4justice@gmail.com>
Wed, Mar 25, 1:38 PM 
to ryan.newman

Mr. Newman:

I would like to bring your attention to something very unusual regarding the judicial nominating process.

I am writing to inquire about an open seat on the County Court in Miami-Dade County. More than six months ago, County Court Judge Jason Reding Quinones resigned from the bench so he could be appointed as the United States Attorney for the Southern District of Florida.

There is no record of his resignation letter on the Judicial Appointments website. There is no record of the Governor requesting the 11th Circuit JNC to open the interview process. The JNC here in Miami did not conduct any interviews for the open seat. This is true even though the Florida Constitution requires all of this to happen within thirty days of the resignation. (See Article V, Section 11).

I have been following Governor DeSantis' judicial appointments for the entirety of his two terms. I cannot recall the above situation having happened ever before.

Can you please tell me why the "process" was never begun to replace Judge Reding Quinones? And when you expect the "process" to begin?

Thank you.

Captain Justice

Within an hour of me sending my email, the General Counsel’s office for Governor DeSantis sent a letter to the Chair of the JNC for the Eleventh Judicial Circuit, Eliot Pedrosa:

Office of the Governor
THE CAPITOL
TALLAHASSEE, FLORIDA 32399-0001
www.flgov.com
RON DESANTIS 850-717-9418
GOVERNOR

March 25, 2026

Dear Mr. Pedrosa:

On behalf of Governor DeSantis, I am requesting that you convene the Eleventh Judicial Circuit Judicial Nominating Commission for the purpose of selecting and submitting to the Governor the names of highly qualified lawyers for appointment to the Eleventh Judicial Circuit Court (two) and to the Miami-Dade County Court (two). 

These appointments are to fill the vacancies on the Eleventh Judicial Circuit Court created by the resignations of Judge Caballero and Judge Rodriguez and to fill the vacancies on the Miami-Dade County Court created by the resignations of Judge Klukas and Judge Quinones. 

.....

The Commission's handling of this matter is most appreciated.

Sincerely,
David Axelman
General Counsel

cc: The Honorable Ariana Fajardo Orshan
Chief Judge

Then, just as suddenly—as if the Red Sea had parted—on March 29, 2026, the JNC issued an announcement.

The Commission is now accepting applications for vacancies “created by the resignations of Judges Yara Klukas and Jason Reding Quinones”. The announcement also includes vacancies resulting from the retirements of Circuit Court Judges Jose Rodriguez and Marcia Caballero. The application deadline is May 1, 2026.

Which raises the obvious question: what happened during the preceding eight months?

You can thank your own Captain Justice for jump-starting the process. To the two eventual appointees, don't forget to thank me on the day of your investiture.

If we get any more information as to why this appointment process was delayed by more than eight months, we will let you know.

A QUICK REMINDER: THE “NAME GAME”

We previously wrote about Jason Reding Quinones in a December 19, 2023 post titled:

“THE NAME GAME: HERE WE GO AGAIN?!”

You can revisit it here:

We invite you to reread the post and the accompanying Comments.

In that post, we examined the troubling practice of candidates changing their names shortly before applying for judicial office:

Attorney Jason A. Reding—now Jason A. Reding Quinones, according to The Florida Bar—changed his name on December 1, 2023.

He had practiced for more than 15 years as “Jason Reding.” Then he applied to the JNC for an open County Court seat. Not coincidentally, December 1, 2023 was also the deadline to apply for multiple open judicial seats in Miami-Dade County.

A NEW LAW ENTERS THE PICTURE

On April 1, 2026, Governor DeSantis signed CS/HB 91 – Candidate Qualification into law.

The statute now provides, in relevant part (F.S. 99.021(4)(c)):

A candidate with no party affiliation must certify that he or she has not legally changed his or her name pursuant to section 68.07 within the 365 days preceding the qualifying period.

Which leads to an interesting hypothetical:

Would the attorney formerly known as Jason Reding have been permitted to run for judicial office under the name “Jason Reding Quinones” under this new law—had he remained on the bench?

CAPTAIN OUT .......
Captain4Justice@gmail.com

TLI

CORRECTION: The below referenced post on Mr. Markus's blog was authored by Guest Blogger Lindsey Lazopoulous Friedman and not Mr. Markus, who apparently didn't take any time off from his trial prep. 

UPDATE: BANNON "WINS" AT SUPREME COURT

The Supreme Court (Motto: NOT Trump Judges...well maybe NO LONGER Trump Judges) has agreed to send Stephen Bannon's contempt of Congress case back to the district court (he lost on the initial appeal and served four months) so the government can "exercise prosecutorial discretion" and move to vacate the conviction and dismiss the case. Prosecutorial discretion huh? Meanwhile in Miami Victim Wants Max!

 Around 1PM Monday the crew of the Artemis II spacecraft will become the humans who have traveled farthest from Earth (literally and physically. Hypothetically we've read some judicial rulings that are farther out there), surpassing the record of Apollo 13, who had to alter their flight plan to a free trajectory return because of the damage to their spacecraft after an explosion. 

Whenever we get a prosecutor to curse at us we know we are winning. Do you think the Iranian leadership has the same views after the president's curse laden post this weekend  screaming at them to "open the Fuckin Strait of Hormuz..."  It's not like he ever screamed at Mexico to "pay for the fuckin wall..." which of course they haven't done. 

Mr. Markus took a quick break from his trial      A guest blogger (see above)  posted this weekend  about the ceremonial robbing of    Judge Yeney Hernandez, our newest Federal Magistrate. She is a child of immigrants whose both parents worked to give her a chance of a better life.  It's a uniquely American success story played out, especially in Miami, over and over during these last few decades. Based on our current polices, to paraphrase Clemenza in the Godfather, "Won't see that no more."  

We've got less than 90 days of blogging left. Anybody want to run a popular legal blog? We recently turned down a discrete inquiry from the attorney general of the United States who was planning for a life after the DOJ.  Anybody else want to dip their toe into the literary waters of Miami's state court legal dramas? 

TLI means Trans-Lunar Insertion. It is a term of art for space travel to the moon when the spacecraft executes a burn to leave earth orbit and transit space to be captured by the moon's gravity and enter a lunar orbit.  The term was first used for Apollo 8 in 1969 and marked (another) historic first for humans in space- leaving the confines of the earth for outer space. After it was last uttered in 1972 for Apollo 17, it was said again last week. 

EASTER 2026

 In the quiet of this Easter morning, as we step away from the noise of our daily struggles and the complexities of the world, we are reminded that the deepest promise of this season is the arrival of a peace that transcends understanding. Whether you find solace in the spiritual renewal of the holiday or simply in the steady, hopeful rhythm of the earth waking up for spring, there is a profound beauty in the idea that light can emerge from the darkest of places. 

May this day offer you a moment of genuine stillness, a chance to mend what is broken within, and the grace to extend that same spirit of reconciliation and kindness to everyone you encounter. 

  "I am the resurrection and the life. The one who believes in me will live, even though they die; and whoever lives by believing in me will never die."

John 11:25-26

REMAIN CALM ALL IS WELL

 Abraham Lincoln anguished over the frightening losses at the battle of Antietam. "What will the nation say?" he moaned when learning of what was to become the deadliest day in American history. 

Franklin Roosevelt sat stunned in the White House as reports came in, at a trickle at first, and then a flood, about the Japanese surprise attack at Pearl Harbor. Other than the carriers, most of the American fleet was at the bottom of Pearl Harbor. 

The tide of public opinion turned against Lyndon Johnson and the war in Vietnam after the Tet Offensive by the North Vietnamese in 1968. Walter Cronkite, America's most trusted newscaster went on the record during the CBS evening news and opined that the war was not winnable. Johnson later declined to seek re-election. 

What do all these presidents in times of trouble when a war was not going well have in common? 

Well, they all fired their Attorney General the next day, duh. 

NOT 

But that's what happened on Wednesday, the day after the current president gave a yawner of a speech telling the public that all is well and not to panic. He then fired Pam Bondi. 

Read this NY Times amazing article interviewing the shell-shocked Justice Department lawyers on their experiences in the days and weeks after the inauguration when the Justice Department was gutted. It's almost enough to make even a hard-core criminal defense attorney like Rumpole feel sorry for a Fed. Almost. 

The Unraveling Of the Justice Department is here. 

Just remember. Remain calm. All is well. 

COURT POSED TO STRIKE DOWN PROOF BEYOND REASONABLE DOUBT!

 A "source" shared this draft opinion poised to be released, possibly TODAY. It's a day we never thought we would see: your favourite appellate court striking down the proof beyond a reasonable doubt requirement in all criminal cases! 

In a 2-1 decision (and you pretty much know who is dissenting...)  that effectively sets fire to every law school criminal procedure textbook, the court has ruled that the "Proof Beyond a Reasonable Doubt" standard is—and I’m quoting here—"an antiquated burden that fails to meet the logistical demands of a modern, high-volume judiciary."

The court’s reasoning is a masterpiece of judicial gymnastics. They’ve introduced a new standard: "Clear and Articulable Suspicion of Guilt" (CASG).
Writing for the majority, the court noted that the "Beyond a Reasonable Doubt" standard was "never intended to be a shield for the guilty, but rather a hurdle that has become increasingly impassable in an era of complex forensic evidence and distracted jurors." From now on, if the State can show a "significant likelihood" that the defendant was "involved in the general vicinity of the alleged unpleasantness," the burden shifts to the defense to prove innocence by a "preponderance of the evidence."

The "Golden Thread" of English Common Law hasn't just been cut; it’s been shredded and used for confetti.

We suppose it makes our upcoming retirement on June 30th look less like a departure and more like a daring escape from a sinking ship. Only today could we post something like this. We fool you not!

MARCH MADNESS

 Good morning. It is time to start another week. Here's what we are thinking about. 

The US is in a pickle. No off ramp in Iran, and fighting an enemy who has identified victory as outlasting, outwitting, and surviving the attacks. Where have we seen that before? (Hint: Vietnam). Here's something fun: 

Nate Swanson spent nearly two decades in the U.S. government, including most recently as a State Department representative on the Trump administration’s Iran negotiating team and previously as the National Security Council’s director for Iran in the Biden administration. Days before the U.S. bombed Iran, Swanson published a piece predicting that Iran would do exactly what it has done should the U.S. attack. So he's our government expert, right, providing the President with much needed expert advice? Nope. He was forced out of government because some rightwing influencer nut attacked him and MAGA responded. Here's the Politico article.  This is what happens when you govern by a mob. 

The convicted founder of a Women's Orgasmic group is set to be sentenced in federal court today. 

First floor escalator in the REGJB working yet?  Your judge uses a private elevator, so they won't know of the tribulations of hoi polloi.  

March Madness. And in case you're like Mr. Markus, in the middle of a Venezuelan oil/50 million fraud trial and working all weekend, or a robed reader polishing your candy crush scores, you may have missed this ending to the Duke -Connecticut elite 8 matchup.  From 15 points down at the half, UConn came back to win on a last minute 3 from the logo. Two questions: 1) Duke should not have passed and instead held the ball to draw a foul, right? And 2) Is Braylon Mullin's shot better than Christian Laettner's shot in 1992 propelling #1 Duke over #2 Kentucky into the final four?  What a great debate. 

 

 Here is Laettner's shot :