NFL WEEK 5 2025

 Thank you Georgia for getting us back in the black this week, although we took a bit of a hit on Vandy +9.5 at Ole Miss. 

This week already are flush with the Falcons big win on Thursday night, which knocked a few players out of the Survivor Pool, but not the crazy Romanian's tribute player, as Fake Alex Michaels risked it all with the Falcons, and won! Maybe this is finally his year. 

This week there is not a lot we love. But we will reluctantly give 6.5 and take the Bengals here, in Miami (sort of) over our hapless (feckless?) Fins. The Fins played KC close at home two weeks ago, and held the Vikes to 15 points last week. So you know what? We are going to change and take the Fins plus the points to keep it close.

Lots of sports radio touts like the Steelers at home giving 2.5 instead of the normal three for home field advantage. Indy is coming off a long travel home from Europe, and Steelers are on ten days rest and are up and down all year and this is their week to be up. We don't love it. 

We are going to hop on the NY Bandwagon and take the Giants +3.5 over DC in in DC. The Giants are 3=1 and atop the NFC East because good coaching makes a difference and they have solid coaching. (WIN)

The Jets don't have solid coaching, but they have pluck. The Browns are getting +2.5 visiting NY (Jersey really) and are coming off of ten days rest, but what the heck? It's only money.  (WIN)

The remnants of the big gulf storm are hitting the Northeast here today, so take the under 39.5 in the Jets game.  ( WIN) 

We will roll with the OVER in Vikes/Saints 42.5; and Texas/Titans 39.5. (loss :(    ) 

Survivor will be posted shortly. A few people went out Thursday with the Cowboys. The lesson being never trust the Cowboys. 

 

NAME	WEEK 1	WEEK 2	WEEK 3	WEEK 4	WEEK 5	WEEK 6
RUMPOLE FINS WEEK 4 (VIKES)	CHARGERS LOSS
CLAY KAEISER FINS WEEK 1	SEATTLE	49ers	KC	Vikes	Jags
DUSTIN TISCHLER FINS WEEK 1	CHARGERS LOSS
FAKE FREDDY MOLDOVAN FINS WEEK NEVER- 0-17	LIONS	PACKERS loss
FAKE ALEX MICHAELS FINS WEEK 9	JAGS	49ers	Vikes	Ravens	Falcons!
IFTIKHAR MEMON	JAX	49ers	KC	Vikes	Broncos
JUAN GONZALEZ FINS WEEK 1	JAX	49ers	KC	Vikes	Texans
JASON IRELAND FINS WEEK 6	JAX	49ers	KC	Vikes	Cincy
LUCY LEW FINS WEEK 6	LIONS	49ers	Eagles
MICHAEL FEILER	SEATTLE	TAMPA LOSS
MIGUEL DE LA OVER FINS WEEK 7	JAX	49ers	KC	Ravens	Bengals
ND IRISH FINS WEEK 1	STEELERS	TAMPA LOSS
PETER SAUTTER FINS WEEK 7	JAX	49ers	Bills (whew!)	Seattle	Texans
PUBLIC PRETENDER	JAX	49ers	KC	Ravens	Cowboys
RICK FREEDMAN FINS WEEK 12	JAX	49ers	KC	Vikes	Cowboys
JCKW FINS WEEK 5	JETS	Panthers	KC	Vikes	PASS using Bye Week

 

ISN'T IT GRAND

 Before we begin, apologies for not giving you our lock of the week- Bucs +9.5 over Cowboys. If there is one constant in the NFL, it's the Cowpokes playing down as soon as everyone jumps on their bandwagon.

How is that Grand Conspiracy investigation run by top level DOJ lawyers out of our own SDFL office doing? The Failing NY Times has a report Friday.  

Let us summarize: 

DOJ Legend Joseph diGenova, 81, was dragged out of retirement and sent to Miami (like many retirees) to run this investigation. Now, MAGA minions thought. "we will get to the bottom of this!"  Then the contretemps began. Frustrated with his slow movement (some might call it careful prosecutorial analysis) AG Blanche (motto: "When POTUS says JUMP! I say how high?") brought in two DC DOJ flunkies to push matters along. Joey D then threatened to have US Marshals remove those lawyers forcibly if they tried to enter the grand jury room. Enraged, Blanche called diGenova and ordered him to DC. In response, diGenova quit. Soon after his deputy quit. 

Worry not MAGA minions, SDFL US Attorney Jason Reding Quinones was on the case! His office would bring home the tocino iberico.

But wait! Isn't the SDFL understaffed- there used to be 200 lawyers and now there's about 100? No worries, Reding recruited military lawyers to lend a hand. (More about the pending public execution of a member of the military next week).  

From the failing NY Times about our SDFL US Attorney's Office: "The chief of the office's criminal division has been sidelined. The office's health care fraud section has been decimated (adversely affecting the income of Rumpole and many defense attorneys in our fair city). Many prosecutors say the office feels leaderless and are worried that a place once known for big drug cases and white-collar cases (funding our retirement) has pivoted to politics." 

How does the AG feel about Miami US Attorney Reding Quinones? As per the Times: "Reding Quinones [is viewed] as feckless and [an] inexperienced manager not capable of running the day to day operations of his office, let alone the grand conspiracy case...they felt Mr. Reding Quinones spent too much time in Washington and too little in Florida."

Feckless? Ouch. We've been called many things, but never feckless. That has to hurt. 

Long time Miami AUSA Maria Medetis Long had the case. After her review, she wrote a thoughtful memo indicating there were no crimes to indict. Naturally, she was removed from the case, spurning Joseph diGenova's entreaties to come back on the case when it was given to him. 

This is quite frankly disappointing. We had high hopes for the investigation. The Grand Conspiracy case had the ability to answer questions that have troubled us for decades, including 

Why was the Kennedy Center not originally named " The Future President Trump Center?"; Just how did the 69 Mets manage to win it all within nine years of bring the historically worst team in the history of baseball?; Just who profited from the designated hitter rule anyway" Just exactly where is Obama's birth certificate?; Why is there no new cafe in the REGJB?; And why can't the Yankees do better in the post-season?

In any event, this much is clear. The SDFL US Attorneys Office has not just become a laughingstock amongst Miami Judges and lawyers, but the DOJ powers that be view it as incompetent, and even worse...

Feckless. 

SMH 

  

...IN OCTOBER

MONDAY NIGHT GET EVEN GAME 

 This is one of those weeks we need a big get even game or it will be back to wine in those cardboard containers and the Five Guys Lettuce Wrap Burger instead of the filet and king crab.  

Saints - 1.5. The o/u is a tough 48.5 as we saw when our 49ers over pick just fell short.  48.5 requires a combined 7 TDs and that's above average. Better we like our combo of over 220 passing yards for each of the QBs 

Also over 6.5 Yanks at Rays. We like the Yanks but we don't want to lay the 1.5 runs, but other than the first game against the Rays when they were shut down 1-0, they are pretty reliable in hitting the over. 

Well, here it is! What legal nerds the world over wait for. 

The First Monday in October, when the US Supreme Court (motto: "Trump does what he wants and who are we to stop him?") meets for the new session, and county and circuit judges throughout Florida dream their DeSantis Drone dreams: "If I just deny all the defense motions and tell counsel that it's up to the legislature to change the law, I'm sure to catch the eye of the governor and president..."*sigh*

Not gonna mess with you know who

Do you ever wonder why jurists who believe in originalism use computers to do research and write their opinions? If originalism is the right way to interpret the Constitution, then why isn't it the right way to live their lives?

The article is behind a paywall, but Justice Alito has a piece in the Wall Street Journal about originalism, which is sort of weird because the framers didn't read the WSJ. Other than that glaring inconsistency, the article is worth a read- especially if you're having trouble sleeping if all your football picks bombed this weekend like ours did. 

Anyway, new week and new Supreme Court term. Enjoy. 

WEEK FOUR NFL 2026

 Bad beat story. After cashing with the Georgia Bulldogs the first three weeks of the season we naturally took them -25.5 over Vandy Saturday.  Up 38-14 late in the fourth quarter,  and us needing one more Georgia Bulldog score to cover, a Georgia RB broke free and was running towards the endzone when he was brought down from behind at the 11. With less than a minute left Georgia kneeled twice and took the win while Rumpole took the loss. 

Time to win that back today. 

We start with a prop bet. The Giants have a weak passing game. The visiting Cardinals have a weak run defense. That equals to a prop bet on Giant RB Cam Scatebo +170 over 70 yards. 

We loved the over 47 in the Broncos at 49ers game this week. Alas, the number has climbed to 48.5, which we could also get behind, if we hadn't locked in the lower number earlier this week,

We do not often post a MNF pick this far in advance. But we are very happy to jump on New Orleans at home -2.5 over the not for real Atlanta Falcons     

Not much we love this week. 

Don't forget to geek-out tomorrow with the first Monday in October, 

MISTAKES AND WHAT IS COMING

 We all make mistakes. Your blogger has made 7 this year. Last year- 9. 

Senator Eric Schmitt (Clown, Missouri) made one on national TV during the testimony of former DOJ prosecutor Jack Smith.  Schmitt was trying to draw a connection between Smith and Atlanta prosecutor Fanni Willis, who indicted Trump.  Asked directly if he had met her, Smith denied it.  Ah, thought Schmitt, “I’m fixing to spring mah trap.” He then asked Smith if he had been to an Atlanta Hawks game on February 3,2024.  Puzzled, Smith thought for a moment and then denied it  “Now ah got em!” Schmitt thought to himself.  He told Smith he had his texts  and Smith and his team talked about Smith attending the Hawks game.  The Senator told Smith he had committed perjury and that he would be remembered as a “dirtbag”.   Visions of congressman Nixon and communist spies and microfilm in a pumpkin patch which propelled Nixon to the Senate and then the Vice Presidency danced in Schmidtt’s small brain.  

Just one teeny tiny problem.  The Senator is apparently no sports fan.  Quick research by senate staffers and media during the hearing showed that on February 3, 2024 Iowa women’s basketball team played Maryland.   The failing NY Times quickly found a picture of Mr Smith at the game.  Atlanta has the Hawks- an NBA team.  Iowa has the Hawkeyes and on that night Smith went to the game to see  Caitlin Clark the women’s college phenom.  No perjury.  No Nixon like advancement to becoming Vice President.  Just a doofus with his foot in his mouth and no Hawkeye  eyesight.  The Senator quickly left the hearing and was quoted muttering “he’s still a dirtbag.”  

Monday is a big day. Why? Legal nerds the world over will quickly shout that It’s the First Monday in October.  And what does that mean? Maybe a robed reader knows  

OVERREACTION MONDAY

 It is overreaction Monday, time to overreact about last week's events...Or Not. 

The Chinese came to the White House last weekend and were served Mexican take-out. Overreaction? What's your Miami go-to Mex take out? Taco Rico on US1 for us. 

The first-floor cafe at the hollowed-out REGJB remains closed. It used to be the place to schmooze and network and find your judge and prosecutor sharing a colada and strike a plea. Now, we barely talk -rejecting plea offers by text. The future of our (somewhat) beloved criminal courthouse looks bleak. Overreaction or a fair comment on current events? 

The Straits of Hormuz remain closed. The war drags on. Republicans are going to pay the price in the midterm elections. Overreaction or just the lay of the political landscape? 

The Dolphins lost again. Their future is as bleak or bleaker than the REGJB. Overreaction because the Fins hung tough with KC for most of four quarters, or just recognizing another several years of Miami losing football? 

But your Miami Hurricanes are looking good. Overreaction because their schedule has been weakish?

High bond rates are threating stock equities. Overreaction because the market has mostly shrugged off the high rates, or just recognizing what Wall Street has not come to terms with yet?

The Nor'easter slammed the north-east coast of the US. Overreaction because this was no Hurricane Sandy or fair comment because lots of towns are flooded with no electricity. 

Got a topic for overreaction Monday? Post it. 

Enjoy the week in Miami where we assure you it is much drier than where we are. 

WEEK THREE FOOTBALL AND BEARS 2026

UPDATE- SURVIVOR POSTED BELOW  And we had a very profitable $unday with our picks. 

We are going to post our football picks early this weekend as an intensifying Nor'easter has us mildly concerned about internet access Sunday. But before football, Fat Bears! 

Yes, it's the Fat Bears of Katmai National Park, Alaska, and our all time favourite nature cam- the cam of the bears at the falls catching salmon swimming upstream as they put on weight and prepare for winter. No vegan diets here, as these big bruins add weight until they can't fit in their lululemons.  And every year thousands of fans of the chunky salmon chasers vote for the politically incorrect, but coveted title of Fat Bear. 🐻 And this year, amongst the favourites, we have some nepo-bear-baby- contenders!

89 Backpack is considered a "gentleman bear" who doesn't fight for space at the falls, but packs away the salmon and got his name from hanging on his mom Holly's back as a cub as she wadded across the falls and rivers. He's a nepo-baby, as his mom is a prior Fat Bear Chunky Champ.

32 Chunk is a big fella- over 1,200 pounds and back to defend his 2024 title. Go Chunk Go!

428 Studious is another nepo-baby contender. Her mom 128 Grazer is a former champ,  and this big gal got her name from the way as a cub she carefully studied her mom's hunting techniques. 

164 Bucky is a young up-and-comer, but he wants a win in the worst way, challenging other, older bears for the best feeding spots. The young buck can feel a Fat win coming. 

May the fattest bear win!  

PICKS

Because we are posting Saturday, we can share a team that is currently funding our lifestyle, allowing us to order the scoop of caviar on the filet and lobster tail at La Tete d'Or By Daniel.  (don't try getting a resy for the rest of the year unless, like us, you know someone). 

And that team is the Georgia Bulldogs. We had them -25 over Arkansas last week, and it was no sweat y'all (as they say in the Peach state).  Today we like them -14 over Oklahoma. 

The game of the day is Ole Miss at Florida.  Dolphin's fans take note- your next QB is slinging the rock for the Running Rebels. "With the first pick in the 2027 NFL Draft the Miami Dolphis select Max Pelham, Punter, South Dakota State Trinidad Chambliss, Quarterback, Ole Miss."   It will probably be Chambliss, but this being Miami don't count our Pelham.  Don't bet a lot here, but we loved Ole Miss's win over LSU last week, so roll with Ole Miss +4 at Florida.  This team and their QB have the type of moxie that took Indiana to the title last year (Indiana had an epic-two-year run that we were on early in 2025 that was legendary even for Rumpole. Ah, those were the days...)

SUNDAY 

Label us bandwagon jumpers.  The powerhouse New Orleans Saints 1-1 are home against the 2-0 Raiders. One team is for real, and one team is a bit lucky. Saints and the hottest QB in the league -3.  We didn't post it- but we had a big over bet here that hit- we lost on the pick we posted.  Go heavy on Saints next week to bounce back. 

Chiefs -63 at Miami. Nuff said.  If you're going, the fun is in player props.

Vikes -1 at Tampa. Inside scoop- Tampa QB Mayfield was battling a nasty cold this week. Minny's D coordinator Brian Flores (best D coordinator in the league and former Fins coach) has his Defense blitzing as they walk off the bus- something like 92% of the time last week. And now a QB with sniffles? We like the Vikes here.  NICE WIN FOR US

Speaking of Bears, we will take Chicago as a home bear +5 over the Eagles.  CANCEL THIS FOR MNF- no idea who is playing QB for Chicago. 

Bengals -3.5 at Pittsburgh.  Wanna see a team in disarray that doesn't play in Broward County? That's the Steelers. Their QB belongs at a South Florida retirement community. He can't run, move, and the Steelers can't protect him. LOSS- very surprising. 

Titans at Giants under 5 (lol). The O/U is 38. Lots of sharpies are saying the Giants -2.5 are the pick because their coach will right the ship and Jameis Winston has had a full week of practice.  We aren't sold. Maybe a 10-10 tie? Take the under.  UNDER WAS A WIN

Ravens at Cowboys in Brazil. The story here is the field, which, to use a technical term- sucks. Let's just hope no one gets injured.  No idea on this other than Ravens RB Henry to score a TD, which he always does.  THAT WAS A WIN

Just where won't the NFL take money to play a game? Maybe in 2030 the Fins will travel to Pyongyang and play a game before the Dear Leader.  Giants-Rams in Kuala Lumpur? Texans-Bears at Midway (the island in the Pacific, not the airport in Illinois).  And how about Seattle-Minnesota in Hialeah? Talk about exotic locales! 

Enjoy the weekend. We are trying to stay dry. 

SURVIVOR Saw Fake Freddy fall with Pack last week and most players hop on KC whose win against the Fins in Miami was a lot closer for much of the game than the final score indicates. On we go!