MONDAY MARCH 2 2026 THOUGHTS

 Good Monday morning. We start a new week in the REGJB, with trials set, and the State announcing "victim wants max." 

However international events are intruding on everyone's thoughts. So let's dive in. 

Oil. There is plenty of oil in the world that has been delivered or is being delivered and is out of the Mid East. Oil companies however use any excuse to raise prices. Today we will see prices rise to the mid 70's a barrel, and we could see 100 a barrel in the future. But most of that will be a non-supply/demand response, with news driving the price. 

Iran. Iran has suffered under a religious theocracy for nearly fifty years. Women are beaten, degraded, and imprisoned for not following rules designed to make them second class citizens;  intellectuals are  scorned and prosecuted (and this doesn't just occur in Muslim religious theocracies, as the battle in Texas and Alabama to force the display of biblical quotes in public places continues unabated), and minorities like the LGBTQ community are persecuted and murdered. In recent months the Ayatollahs have ordered the wholesale murder of people protesting their regimes. The Iranian people, who have a long history of a brilliant and vibrant culture have suffered too long. The religious/criminal leaders need to go. While they led chants of death to America and death to Israel, they are facing their own elimination, and rightfully so. 

Financial Markets. We went to 60% cash last week, buying short ETFs QID and SQQQ which are up nicely this morning. But the horse is out of the barn on those, so do not buy them today. As you consider your portfolio remember Warren Buffet's first rule of investing- when people panic, be greedy, and when people are greedy, panic.  

If you have assets to deploy, here are our thoughts. Historically, markets have fallen about 1.1% on the first trading day of an international event similar to this one, and 4.4% over the two weeks following the event, and risen well over 10% in the two months following the end of the incident. We can expect those trends to continue. So today is not the day to buy, nor panic sell. There are issues unique to this event, as each event has unique possibilities. Here, the closing of the Straits of Hormuz for a longer period of time could inflict short term damage to world economies.  China is the wildcard here as they purchase about 80% of Iranian energy products that Iran exports. China's response is at this time not discernable. It would be extremely unlikely for China to provide military support to Iran. Rather, we expect them to watch the situation closely and quickly re-establish ties with whomever ends up leading Iran in the coming months. 

Any short-term Iranian military success will also cause a sharp drop in US equities. By that we mean the damage or sinking of a US naval vessel, or a more successful missile strike against US forces in the region than we have seen up to now.  More likely is that Iran will continue to target soft civilian targets of their neighbors, like they have recently done in attacking Dubai's airport (our all-time favourite airport). 

Many stocks will be attractive in the coming days, including the ETFs XLK, VOO and VOOG. 

We, of course love NVDA below 180, META below 650, APPL below 270, AVGO (Broadcom, which reports this week) below 350 (it's around 320 now. Because it reports this week, this will be our first buy, either late today or tomorrow), and TESLA below 400. 

TESLA is the most intriguing company. If you have been listening to Elon carefully, as we have, TESLA is transitioning from a car company to a robotics company where the market to sell or lease a personal robot is literally in the billions.  If you're a 30ish ASA/PD/Young lawyer, we would advise to start picking up a few shares every month, as well as buying an ETF with a large exposure to TESLA. If you're older, there is still a near-term horizon which could pay off nicely, as many analysts view 2028-2030 as the time frame when robotic sales will begin to show up in the company's financial reports. TESLA at 400 could be akin to NVDA at 50, or AMZN at 20. 

While it takes a significant amount of time, attention, and financial sophistication (like the ability to quicky read and comprehend a company's annual report or the 10K) to safely pick individual stocks (eliminating most of our robed readers) picking a good ETF with a great track record is a safer and easier way to make a smart investment. XLK, a tech ETF, has been our best performing ETF since 2020. Always keep an eye on the expense ratio. A price below .5 is a must. A good ratio is < .25% for a stock ETF and < .10% for a bond ETF.

Final thoughts. Regime change is hard. See, Iraq, 2000-2015. But sometimes it is needed. See Germany and Japan, 1930-1945. The leaders of Iran need to go. The Iranian people have waited too long for the world to step up to the plight. 

5 DAYS IN MAY- PROLOGUE

 May 24-28, 1940, London, were arguably the five most important days for Western Civilization. The decisions made by England's new Prime Minister- Winston Spencer Churchill -saved democracy and freedom from Nazi oppression. It is our intention to examine those days, at times hour by hour, drawing on a detailed history from multiple sources that we have spent a good deal of our life reading and studying. England from 1930-1945 is our passion, and the hours we have spent learning about the lives of those who lived in those times, and the decisions they made, has been our joy. So now that football is over, you can expect these posts on the weekends to come. Let's dive in. 

May 24, 1940. Winston Churchill has been Prime Minister for exactly fourteen days. On this Friday things never looked bleaker for England. The decisions Churchill and his war cabinet would make would not win World War II, but they would prevent Hitler from winning the war, as Germany was never closer to winning the war than on Friday, May 24. 

There are three prime characters we must study, and a fourth outside their orbit. You can think of this as a triangle of men, with one other hoovering outside the three interconnecting lines. Those men were Churchill, former Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain, and Lord Edward Fredrick Lindley Wood Halifax, often referred to as the "Reverend Holy Fox" by Churchill behind Halifax's back. 

What we first must understand is that Halifax was the King's choice to replace Chamberlain when he resigned. But Halifax was not a member of Parliament. He was a member of the House of Lords, and as such, he could not appear in Parliament and lead Parliament as a Prime Minister.  When asked, Halifax deferred to Churchill being chosen, believing that he could be the power behind the throne. He was wrong. Churchill was always a step ahead of him. Or, as we will see, almost always. 

The fourth member of this triangle plus one was...surprisingly, Benito Mussolini. It was not, as you might expect, Hitler, although his actions, and inactions were crucial to Churchill's and England's success. 

The stage in Europe was bleak. France was nearly defeated. The Germans were marching on Paris. The British Expeditionary Force, over three hundred thousand men, were trapped and retreating to the French coast. England was facing the near total loss of her army. And there was more. 

King Leopold III, the monarch of Belgium, was about to surrender his army and country to the Germans. When France and Belgium fell, England would truly be standing alone. Europe would be lost under the grip of the "odious Nazi' regime", and without her army, only the RAF and the navy would be left to protect England from invasion. The United States was eighteen months away from entering the war. President Roosevelt did not trust Churchill, and was hesitant to extend himself, especially while facing re-election for an unprecedented third term. Churchill and Roosevelt would not form their close friendship and trust for more than two years hence, and in the interim, Roosevelt plotted to take England's navy and many of her overseas bases because he and his advisors did not think England would survive. 

Halifax moved steadily and stealthily, with the support of the King and a large contingent of the Conservative party, for a peace agreement with Hitler to be brokered by Mussolini, who had not yet brought Italy into the war. Some members of the Conservative Party (of whom Churchill was also a member) did not agree with seeking peace, nor did most of the Liberal Party, whose strong support was the only reason why Churchill was chosen as Prime Minister- making him a shaky, compromise PM. 

For reasons we will discuss later, regarding some disastrous decisions Churchill made in the First World War, Churchill was not trusted. He was thought to be impetuous, stubborn to a fault; an unstable alcoholic who was not fit to lead England at this dark hour. 

So we begin our study of these five days with Churchill being undermined by his own war cabinet, with shaky support at best from Parliament, facing the loss of France, Belgium, and England's army. 

As we will see, Hitler was never closer to winning World War II than on Friday May 24, 1940. What Churchill and England did and did not do, and what Hitler did not do, shaped future events and sealed Germany's fate in a way that could not been seen nor understood during that fateful weekend. Had England fallen, the world would have been a much different place for the rest of the 20th century. And facing the loss of her army, England was about to fall. 

But one man would not let that happen, and we will be examining in the days and weeks ahead on this blog his responses to the rapidly unfolding events during those five days in May, 1940, that would test him like no other leader has ever been tested. 

The man was about to meet the moment.  

SHAWN ABUHOFF & 31 OTHERS APPLY TO JNC .....

THE CAPTAIN REPORTS:

SCROLL DOWN TO THE BOTTOM FOR OUR ADDENDUM REGARDING THE 3RD DCA.

SO, YOU WANT TO BE A CIRCUIT/COUNTY COURT JUDGE .....

The Judicial Nominating Commission (JNC) for the Eleventh Judicial Circuit of Florida is entering a busy stretch following the expansion of the bench in Miami-Dade County.

In 2025, Governor Ron DeSantis signed Senate Bill 2508 into law, creating four additional County Court seats and three additional Circuit Court seats. Last year, the Governor filled two of the County Court seats and one Circuit Court seat. The JNC is now tasked with interviewing applicants for the remaining two County Court and two Circuit Court vacancies.

THE APPLICANT POOL .....

The JNC received 32 applications, divided as follows:

10 applicants for County Court only

11 applicants for both County and Circuit Court

11 applicants for Circuit Court only

The Commission will conduct interviews on March 13 and may nominate up to 12 candidates for County Court and 12 for Circuit Court.

A NOTABLE APPLICANT: ASA Shawn Abuhoff .....

One name that immediately stands out is Assistant State Attorney Shawn Abuhoff (and not because he is listed first). Abuhoff has applied for a seat on the County Court.

Many in the legal community will recall the high-profile disputes in 2024 and 2025 between the Miami-Dade State Attorney’s Office and members of the criminal defense bar. Abuhoff was at the center of one such controversy in the case of State v. Pratt.

In that case, the defendant was charged with second-degree murder and represented by Assistant Public Defenders Natalie Ender and Lauren Dawson. During the proceedings, the Public Defender’s Office filed a motion seeking Abuhoff’s removal, alleging that he attempted to intimidate a key witness. Specifically, Ender claimed that Abuhoff and a police officer appeared near the home of witness Bridet Lampley and banged on the window of a car in which she was seated.

The presiding judge, Judge Wolfson, denied the motion.

Shortly thereafter, Abuhoff filed a motion seeking to disqualify Ender and Dawson, Abuhoff wrote in his complaint as to Ender and Dawson that “Their actions of tampering with a witness have made them witnesses themselves and created conflicts that this court can not ignore,” His office also publicly announced that both attorneys were under criminal investigation and that it was “in the process” of determining whether charges would be filed.*

Judge Wolfson denied that motion as well.

*No charges were ever filed against either Ender or Dawson.

FACDL-MIAMI ENTERS THE FRAY .....

The dispute drew the attention of the local chapter of the Florida Association of Criminal Defense Lawyers (FACDL-Miami), which alleged a broader pattern of prosecutorial misconduct.

FACDL cited several incidents, including the removal of ASA Michael Von Zamft from the case of State v. Corey Smith by Judge Wolfson. The organization also publicly commented on actions taken by the State Attorney’s Office in the murder prosecution of OnlyFans model Courtney Clenney and the related charges against her parents.

Regarding the Ender and Dawson matter, FACDL’s Board of Directors issued a statement asserting that the State Attorney’s Office “continues to engage in a pattern of unethical misconduct” in cases where defense attorneys have “done nothing more than uphold their constitutional obligation and duty to defend their client.” The Board further criticized what it described as the unjustified public accusation of criminal conduct against defense counsel and their investigator.

The Miami Herald covered it in July of 2024 in two stories you can read here and here.

Here is a list of the 32 applicants:

COUNTY COURT ONLY

Shawn Abuhoff 
Yaneth Baez  
Johanna Benedi  
Madelin D’Arce** 
Kimberly Hillery 
Yvette Lavelle  
Gustavo Losa 
Marlin Muller  
Jeffrey Pierce  
Patricia Salman 

COUNTY & CIRCUIT COURT

Natalia Costea 
Yenly Dominguez  
Christian Dunham 
Aaron Feuer 
Scott Janowitz  
Jose Martinez 
Andrew McGinley 
Michelle Roth 
Monica Segura  
Alexander Shear 
Annette Strauch 

CIRCUIT COURT ONLY

(All are County Court Judges except for Mrs. Alvarez)

Destiny Goede Alvarez**
Rita Cuervo 
Miesha Darrough  
Elisabeth Espinosa  
Christopher Green  
Chiaka Ihekwaba  
Alicia Garcia Priovolos  
Jorge Perez Santiago 
Stephanie Silver 
Eleane Sosa-Bruzon 
Michelle Urbistondo  

**Destiny Goede Alvarez has been a member of The Florida Bar for five years (the minimum necessary to qualify to be a judge). She has two degrees from the University of Florida, she was President of Florida Blue Key, and she was inducted into their Hall of Fame. She is a member of the Federalist Society.

She was an Intern for Federal Magistrate Judge Amanda Arnold Sansone; spent a year working in the DeSantis Administration for the Department of Transportation; was an Associate at Gray Robinson for two years (is there any law firm more connected to the DeSantis Administration?!); and she is currently is a Partner at Goede, DeBoest, & Cross (the Goede is John Goede - her father we surmise)

Another interesting note: Attorney Madelin D’Arce, who applied for County Court, is also a Partner at Goede, DeBoest, & Cross. 

THIRD DCA JNC

The 3rd DCA JNC has announced that they will be conducting interviews of seven applicants to replace Judge Kevin Emas, who is retiring from the bench on March 31. The applicants are:

Jeffrey DeSousa

Judge Javier Enriquez

Judge Spencer Multack***

Judge Joseph Perkins

Judge Thomas Rebull

Thomas Ward

Judge Robert Watson

Interviews will take place on March 17, and the JNC will nominate up to six of the seven applicants to the Governor's office.

***Judge Multack could have an uphill battle to get the call from Gov. DeSantis. Multack sits in Family Court and, until last week, sat over a paternity case between Arlene Delgado and Jason Miller. The case has already gone through nine judges, and, at one point in the litigation, Delgado moved to recuse Multack from the case, arguing that he was biased for Miller. But recently, Miller decided he didn't like Multack either. 

Miller, according to a post from Above The Law, was all set to be the White House communications director for the first Trump administration when news circulated that he’d had an affair with fellow campaign staffer, Arlene “AJ” Delgado. Delgado has a 7-year-old son that she contends belongs to Miller. 

Last week, Miller went onto X (formerly Twitter) and tweeted (is that still a word), 

"I am actively opposing Florida Judge Spencer Multack's application to get a promotion to Florida's Third District Court of Appeal, and I will be activating EVERYONE I know and EVERY resource I have to stop his bid". 

Multack recused himself four hours later. You can read the story from Above The Law here. Florida Bulldog covered it here.

CAPTAIN OUT .....
Captain4Justice@gmail.com

SNOWDAY

 Good morning. Monday is a rare snow day for NYC public schools as nor'easter blizzard slams the eastern seaboard. 

Here in South Florida the nation holds its collective breath as we struggle with temps that are dipping into the low 60s-high 50's. But we are resilient. 

People who don't know a blue line from a blue moon are celebrating the USA Hockey Team's overtime gold medal win over Canada. If you were watching the game Sunday morning, that group of fans arriving late in the third period with American flags draped over them was the Miami contingent. 

Stocks are mostly flat in pre-morning activity as the world digests the new tantrum-tariffs and China announced the awarding of their nation's highest medal (The People's Hunter-Biden Laptop Medal) to Justices Roberts, Gorsuch and Coney-Barrett for service to the People above and beyond the call of duty.  

Next up on the High Court's docket- the decision on whether the President can lawfully order the deportation of  Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook to South Sudan; whether the president can rename the Washington Monument, the Library Of Congress, Central Park and the Grand Canyon after himself; and whether the president can force Greenland to reimburse the tariffs the US illegally collected? 

Miami Practice Tip Reminder: Include those certifications about whether you've used AI or not in your pleadings. Query: does this apply to the SAO's discovery responses? And if they don't include the certification can you move to strike their witness list? 

OT

 The Canada -USA gold medal hockey match just went into overtime at 1-1 as we write this. Sorta pulling for Canada as our wonderful neighbors to the North have endured so much BS from us, they deserve this win as a feel-good experience for a great nation that is North America's new bastion of Democracy and liberty. Plus their Jersey's are much cooler. Sign us up for one. 

Knicks had a great come from behind win at the Garden last night over the Rockets. Getting ready for playoff basketball. '

Speaking of New York. Bundle up and settle down with a hot soup and good book. A 24 hour nor-easter is set to hit today- a massive blizzard with up to two feet of snow and 50+ MPH winds that will create 5 and 6 foot snow drifts. 

Here is Washington Square Park after the great 47 blizzard.

And here is Wall Street after the 1888 Blizzard. 

Back then there was much less available on Netflix and Hulu. Times have changed.

Our prescription for a blizzard day: 1 whole chicken; a whole diced onion; whole diced apple; 4-5 carrots thickly chopped; whole plum tomato diced; place all in a slow cooker for four hours; add Italian spice mix or Goya Sazon. When done, roughly shred chicken with two forks, keeping in bones for flavor. Cook your fav noodles in a sperate pot adding a 1/4 cup of broth for flavour. 

Pick an old favourite book to re-read. Something like 11/22/63 by Stephen King.   Or The Alieniest by Caleb Carr.; or The First Deadly Sin by Lawrence Sanders. 

Mr. Sanders has passed away, but his First Deadly Sin is the classic NYC serial killer novel. We first read it when it was serialized in the NY Daily News in 1977 because it had been published just before the Son of Sam murders and there was some thought the killer had read the novel. Although he was already an established author, The First Deadly Sin propelled Sanders to superstar-best-seller status, and this novel is worth all the hype. His characters are great- and Edward X. Delaney, the NY Captain who hunts down the killer outside the NYPD bureaucracy which was beset by local politics, is a great hero. Well written, accurate as to NYC and NYPD, and totally suspenseful. We just talked ourselves into re-reading it today. 

Enjoy your Sunday. AND LITERALLY AS WE WROTE THIS- The USA scored and the USA wins the Gold!

Jack Hughes of the NJ Devils scored 1:42 into OT. Outshot 42-28 by Canada, the 2026 USA team joins the 1960 Squaw Valley and 1980 Miracle On Ice teams as the only US team to win Olympic Gold.  

THE GREATEST

 There are many things that are given the apparition The Greatest. This, readers, as spring training games begin in baseball for the 2026 season, is simply the greatest home run of all time. 

It's the bottom of the 9th- game seven, 1960 world series. It is tied 9-9 as the upstart Pittsburgh Pirates come to bat. It is October 13, and the clock in Forbes Field has just ticked to 3:36 PM. The greatest game in baseball history is about to experience the greatest ending. 

Ralph Terry is on the mound for the Yankees. Second baseman Bill Mazeroski comes to bat. He is an exceptional fielder. Nobody turned the double play better. He is not a power hitter. He will end his career with 138 home runs and a .260 batting average. 

The Yankees were baseball's powerhouse. The Pirates had great pitching, great fielding, a few power hitters and a budding superstar with a gun for an arm in right field named Roberto Walker Clemente. 

By game seven the Pirates had won three games with the scores of 6-4; 3-2; and 5-2. The Yankees had blown out the Pirates in their three wins 16-3; 10-0; and 12-0. Game seven was a classic see-saw battle with strange things occurring like a pebble from a ground ball from Bill Virdon hitting Yankee shortstop Tony Kubeck in the throat allowing the Pirates, who were behind 7-4 in the bottom of the eighth inning to avoid a double play and go on to take the lead 9-7. The Yankees tied the game in the top of the ninth, and thus Maz walked to the plate in the bottom of the ninth about to make history. 

 

Bill Mazeroski, Hall of Famer, and who hit the greatest home run in baseball history, died yesterday. He once said he thought about the home run every day of his life. Rest In Peace. 

V-M=-C

UPDATE The Chinese-Venezuelan-Hunter Biden Laptop-Clinton Supreme Court (not our name, but the nomenclature used by Maga drones) has STRUCK DOWN most of the president's authority to impose tariff's based on countries that did not support his nomination for a Nobel Peace Prize. 

Justice Roberts, along with Gorsuch and Coney were in the majority. Roberts wrote the opinion. Kavanaugh, Alito and Thomas in dissent which we will summarize: "Today we strike down an act of the President, something we promised not to do at our last federalist society meeting. If the court cannot keep it's word, the public will lose confidence in our ability to roll over when the president holds out a biscuit and orders us to do so."  

Local effects; 1) A local lawyer "no pago esa tarriffs" has announced the first lawsuit to recover tariffs paid by consumers.  Check your local bus bench. 133 billion is at stake to be returned and law firms everywhere have their calculators out "hmmmm 1/3 of a billion is....and multiply that by 133 is ...$$$$). 

2) The eleventh judicial circuit (Miami-Dade) has issued an order to all Miami judges to NOT apply the decision of the Supreme Court as the court did not comply with the requirement to include the certification that no part of this decision was written by AI. The effects on the Homestead Branch Court (all tariff litigation all the time) is unknown but worrisome. 

Markets have digested the decision without much movement downward. Upcoming: The President State of the Union is scheduled- the White House is busy UNINVITING six Supreme Court Justices. 

 We have some Friday math coming. But at the moment at 9:50 am we are monitoring the Supreme Court to see if the Tariffs opinion will be released.  It is going to be a temporary market mover any way the decision goes.