CIVIL WAR IN RUSSIA? AND FREE THE OCTOPUS!

For you robed readers out there, calling balls and strikes and struggling to find ways to deny motions to suppress ("While it's true the defendant was beaten to confess, he is guilty, the crime is bad, and the court must balance that against ethereal "rights" in the Constitution which was written at a time when hanging and flogging were accepted.")  we will guide you through the situation in Russia. 

Russia has two armies. The Russian army, which has proven as effective as the French Army against Germans, and the Wagner Group, a mercery army run by Yvgeny Prigozhin (YP), a cook and restauranteur.  It's sort of like if the guys who run Prime 112 raised an army and invaded Hialeah. ("They are lobbing baked potatoes and truffle butter and the people are taking shelter and eating pastellitos... It's chaos....")

For a few weeks now YP has been feuding with the Russian Army generals. YP accused the Russian military of treason for not adequately supplying Wagner troops with supplies needed to fight Ukraine.  It may have peaked Friday night when YP claimed a Russian military strike on a Wagner military camp.  This has led to a very warm (but not yet hot) conflict. There's a lot to consider here. 

First, how much civilian support does Putin have? Will it take a little or a lot for YP to get the support of the people? 

Second, YP needs access to media beyond social media to get his word out. Watch for Putin to shut down his access to television and radio. 

Third, How tightly will Putin hang on to power? Will he order the Russian Military to engage the Wagner group and will the military follow those orders while Ukranian missiles, drones and artillery are falling on them?   

Fourth- can YP make an alliance with Ukraine? Should he?  What will that do? 

Fifth- the control of nuclear forces. Watch this closely. 

Sixth- the market will fall Monday so hang on Sloopy, hang on...

CRISIS IN NYC 

We will be updating you as needed. But for now we bring to your attention a more immediate crisis unfolding in NYC where we are currently staying for a short period of time until our EDNY judge issues the order "and therefore the defense motion to dismiss is GRANTED." 

WAR

UPDATE:

Many of the comments have asked, correctly, what would Rumpole have done and do now? Of course we have the solutions. 

John Von Neuman along with Oskar Morgenstern in their ground-breaking Game Theory book decided that Poker was the best example of a game subject to game theory analysis because like many real-life scenarios, Poker involved a game of incomplete information in a zero sum game (only one player takes the pot 99% of the time). 

Poker has been subject to millions of hours of simulations and analysis. And the result is the emergence of a near optimum strategy. That strategy involves heightened aggression. Being the lead in a hand. Raising not calling. Dictating the terms. When raised, fold or re-raise. Rarely call. Place the decision back to the opponent. 

Biden and the West have ignored those lessons. Having developed the (incomplete) information that Russia was probably going to attack Ukraine- call that the bet by Putin, Biden and the West called. They threatened sanctions. They formed coalitions. And then they waited for Putin to make the next move. He did. First sending troops into the breakaway republics- call it another raise, and again the West called- imposing more sanctions. The calls didn't work. The sanctions and threats of sanctions did not stop Russia. 

The strategy of responding to aggression with measured responses never works with nation states. We are seeing it now. We saw it in 1938 and 1939. What we saw that worked was what England did in 1940. Having just barely rescued its Army from France, England did not surrender. England did not threaten sanctions. England attacked. They sent bombers to Germany and it's Army to North Africa, handling the Germans their first defeat in Egypt at El-Alamein. 

So what should have been done here for Ukraine? NATO should have immediately admitted Ukraine. NATO troops should have been moved to the borders as trip wires. And Ukraine should have preemptively attacked the massing Russian forces. Tanks were on railroads. Troops were being flown into airports. The railroads should have been disabled with air and missile attacks. Airport runways should have been bombed. In short, Ukraine, protected by NATO, should have raised. Attacked Russian transportation structure and put the onus on Putin and Russia to respond. 

Sun Tzu advised to choose the battlefield. We do that all the time as defense attorneys. The state has DNA? Defend the crime as consensual- choosing the battlefield of consent and not DNA as the area to fight on. 

Crimea's airfields and train depots and its electronic infrastructure should have been attacked and shut down. Make Putin call the raise. He didn't need casus belli- he showed that last night when he invaded Ukraine without provocation- unless you believe his Trumpian claim that he is interested in outing Nazis from the Ukrainian government (whose president is Jewish). 

That's what POTUS Rumpole would have done. 

WAR. What is it good for? 

Absolutely nothing. 

Say it again. 

War has begun. 

Russia has invaded Ukraine, a peaceful and sovereign and democratic country. 

The Western countries and alliances have promised ....brace yourself....SANCTIONS!

Oh boy. Talk about getting tough. 

See our prior post. 

"Democracies have failed again to protect a small democratic nation from aggressors." 

Shame on us. 

All those politicians who belittled British appeasement of the 1930s towards Germany....where are they now? 

All those people who would smugly say that those who fail to learn the lessons of history are doomed to repeat them...where are they now? 

You do not...repeat...you do not defeat dictators with sanctions. 

Sanctions will never work. 

Dictators who use force, only understand force. When your neighbor's house is on fire you do not offer to sell her a hose. You put out the fire. 

The world has been watching for some time. 

So is history.