Monday, November 05, 2012

ELECTION DAY! ....almost

UPDATE: THE OHIO BALLOT "NIGHTMARE".  For those of you playing our pick the winner and time game, this one fact may also move you to pick the day a winner is declared. 

We all know the conventional wisdom is that Ohio will provide the winning margin for either candidate, as it did in 2004 when the late Tim Russet famously announced in the early morning hours after election day "As Ohio goes, so goes the nation."

For the first time ever, every voter in Ohio was mailed an absentee ballot application. Any voter who filled out and returned the application must vote by absentee ballot.  If the voter changed their mind and attempts to vote on election day, their ballot will be accepted as a provisional ballot, which under Ohio law cannot be counted until ten days after the election. 

Which means in a very close election, Ohio may not decide the contest until November 16, 2012. And that's what you call an election nightmare. Sleep well tonight blog denizens. 

UPDATE: CONTEST TOMORROW: Send us your pick of the winner and the time he is declared the winner. Person closest gets a special blog prize. For example: "Mitt Romney at 11:21 pm." Don't post your picks in the comments section until tomorrow's special election day post.

Tomorrow we elect a president.
Tomorrow we elect 435 members of Congress and (approximately) thirty three members of the Senate. 

Nobody in China can write what we just wrote and have it be true. Or North Korea, or Cuba or even Russia. Tomorrow we elect school board members, and city councils and mayors and state legislatures. 

Tomorrow is democracy in action. Democracy fought for at Lexington and Concorde, and preserved in places like Chateau-Thiery in June 1918, Guadalcanal in 1942, the Kasserine Pass in 1943, Normandy in 1944, and Bastogne in a hellish winter in December 1944 and the Chosin Reservoir six years later in weather that was just as bad.  A justice building legend- Sy Gaer, (Tuesday  is his birthday) fought in Korea at the Chosin Reservoir during 17 freezing days in November and December 1950, and he rarely if ever talked about it. Fighting for democracy is just something Americans have done, and will continue to do. 

If you haven't voted yet, you should. You owe it to those who fought for your right to vote. It may take many hours on Tuesday. But that shouldn't matter.  What are hours compared to a life sacrificed for your right to vote?  That is why you should stand in line Tuesday.  Stand there happily. Stand in line proud and with reverence for what was sacrificed for that line you are standing in. 

 This is  why you should vote, and if you don't, then shame on you:


Anonymous said...

Republicans trying to suppress the vote again. So gross.



Every election since begining my contributing to this BLOG, I say the same thing:

VOTE ......

Regardless of whether you are a Democrat or a Republican, lib or conservative, whether you bleed blue or red, or even a Green party lover, please VOTE.

Yes, Florida is once again the laughing stock of the country. And if you really care about the right to vote, you should be putting pen to paper this morning and sending a letter to the Speaker of the House and the Senate President and the Governor himself, Rick Scott, and asking him why you had to wait in line until 1:00 AM on Saturday night/Sunday morning to exercise your right to vote.

You should be asking whether he, Rick Scott, really cares about your right to vote, and whether he cares whether the citizens of his Great State of Florida were not able to early vote on the Sunday before the election. And then ask him why?

Rick, is it because the pollsters have told you that Republicans overwhelming outnumber Dems in Absentee ballots while Dems far outnumber Republicans in Early voting. Is that why you cut the amount of days of early voting.?

Was it because on the Sunday before the election, black churches historically packed up their buses and drove everyone from church to their voting precints to early vote?

Is it because Dems outnumber Republicans registered in Florida?

Maybe you should have your legislature pass a bill to return absentee balloting to the old way: you remember; that is when you could only get an absentee ballot if you showed good cause for needing it. Now, you don't need a reason - you just ask for one.

What an absolute embarrasment that so many of us had to stand in lines 5, 6, and 7 hours long, from South Dade to Aventura, from Miramar to Deerfield Beach.

Don't let the long lines deter you from exercising your fundamental right to VOTE.

Our mothers and fathers were part of that "Greatest Generation" that fought to preserve this fundamental right. Today, guys and gals that you went to high school with and college with are overseas in Afghanistan and other places defending freedom.

VOTE and proudly wear that sticker on Tuesday that proclaims:

I VOTED!!!!!


Anonymous said...

"I own a home, and no one can take it away as long as I live." That is something that people in China can say that no one here can say. In China you "buy" your home for a 100 year lease (or life estate, I forget right now). No real estate taxes. The house is yours. Done.

Here, when you "buy" a home, you have to pay rent (i.e. real estate tax) to the government every year. Fail to pay that rent and you lose your home.



Three weeks ago, we spoke about an election that was getting tighter by the day. Barack Obama's 6-7 point lead had dwindled down to zero and Romney was starting to have pollsters tell him that he could win this thing.

But, in the past 18 days, the momentum came to a grinding halt for Romney and his Grand Ole Party (GOP). Obama righted the ship and the numbers leveled off.

The popular vote will no doubt be very close. Right now Obama is projected to win the popoular vote by around one point. Romney could still pull out the popular vote. With the damage in the Northeast as a result of Hurricane Sandy, many people in Democrat rich New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, etc will not end up voting and as a result, the popular vote will see an effect.

But, what Romney will be unable to do on election day is win the Electoral College. And, whether you like the EC or not, it takes 270 electors to win, President Obama seems clearly on his way to a second term.

The NY Times 538 has the numbers at Obama 307 to Romney 231.

From three weeks ago until today, the so called swing states are not so much anymore:

Colorado, which was a tossup 18 days ago, Leans Obama

Florida, which was leaning Romney 18 days ago, is now a tossup. Our State is projected to be the closest state of the 50 in the popular vote.

Iowa has gone from Leaning Obama to Likely Obama.

New Hampshire has gone from Leaning Obama to Likely Obama.

Nevada has gone from Leaning Obama to Likely Obama.

Ohio has gone from Leaning Obama to Likely Obama.

Virginia has gone from Leaning Romney to Leaning Obama.

Wisconsin ahs gone from Leaning Obama to Likely Obama.

The road to the White House for Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan does not look good.

We can say one thing with 100% certainty on the Monday before the election. Two days from now, on Wednesday, November 7, 2012 ....

Election campaigning for 2016 will begin .....


Rumpole said...

Asking how many doughnuts someone eats is a no no. although I agree the individual has gained some weight. Similarly calling somone
"little" to make fun of their height won't make the blog.

Rumpole said...

9:22. Ayn Rand wrote that property rights are the foundation of all other rights. In the US you own your home. You can rent it out, sell it, emcumber it with mortgages, tear it down, add to it, do whatever you want. Your taxes pay for the road to your home, the hookup for the sewer and perhaps water, and all other incidentials we agree to pay as citizens that live together. Want to pay less taxes? Go live in a rural area where there are no roads, hospitals, police, fire services. My belief is that in china your ability to buy, sell, mortgage, and tear down and re-build property is very limited. Property belongs to the state, not the individual.

Rumpole said...

FYI- over a thousand views of the PD memo according to the service we used to post it. Not bad.

Anonymous said...

On the topic of property rights: this isn't about amount of taxes, but about a direct question of property rights. How many times must you pay for your house before it is yours? In the US, it is never truly yours as you must, year in and year out, pay again for the privilege to use it. The tax structure could be different (sales tax, income tax, one time property tax when you buy the house, improvement tax, mortgage tax). Any of the taxes I just mentioned do not impact your right to continued use of what you claim to "own."

Anonymous said...

Also, who cares what Ayn Rand wrote?

prognosticator said...

Captain and Rumpole. Care to wager on the popular vote and electoral college vote.

Here are my predictions. Obama 332 electoral college votes. And Obama with 49.3 and Romney wih 48.2 or Obama with a 1.1% win.

Ok Cap and Rumpole, your turn.

Anonymous said...

Happy Guy Fawkes Day Rumpole. Any truth to the rumour that Paul Ryan is part of a Papist Plot to take over the U.S. Government? Check out the Adam Gopnik article in a recent New Yorker pointing out how Ryan has refused put any barriers between religious beliefs and government policies and comparing this with JFK (a war hero and hardly anyone's model for a good Catholic), who had to publicly renounce his religion in order to prove his fitness to be POTUS.

Rumpole said...

11:55 am. Most people don't care what Ms. Rand wrote. And she knew that. But for the small, intelligent segment of the population that understands the importance of things like epistomology, philosophy, and ethics, what she wrote has some significance. But not for you, so no worries mate.

Anonymous said...

Obama with 303 EC votes. Winner declared at 10:00pm.

Anonymous said...

FYI - Rump, the President said that Ayn Rand is for misunderstood teenagers. So you can add him to the majority that have evolved past Rand's views and work.

Since you're an honorary Randian, what do you think about what Obama said? Do you feel you're a misunderstood teenager?


Anonymous said...

What? Rumpole stooping to personal attack rather than arguing the merits? Never...LOL

Rumpole said...

I think the president is being drawn into the controversy over Ms Rand because of Paul Ryan's prior expressions of support for her views until he was confronted with her anti-religious writings. Then Ryan had to beat a hasty retreat. Ryan is, as Rand would call him, an altruist-collectivist. It's just different issues (religious and social) that gore his ox.

I think that if I was having a beer with the president and we discussed the non-fictional essays of Ms. Rand like "Philosophy, who needs it?" or "An introduction to Objectvist Epistemology" he (Obama) would have something more to say rather than the ten second sound bite tested and approved by the campaign.
Ayn Rand's fictional writings appeal to teenagers because of the way she frames issues in black and white. It appeals to them when confronted in a world of gray. It certainly appealed to me as a teenager for the same reason. But what I get out of her writings today is a world of difference as to what I got out of her writings at age 14.

Rumpole said...

It wasn't a personal attack. I was merely repeating and summarizing Ms. Rand's thoughts as expressed in her introduction to the 25th anniversary of the publication of Atlas Shrugged. I cannot find it online but I will post the part I was referring to tonight when i arrive at home.

Anonymous said...

Happy Birthday Sy old friend. Rest in peace.

Anonymous said...

although Gaer served honorably in Korea, that is no excuse for the pithic representation he gave his clients. We know he got paid very little but thats no excuse. The clients would have been bette served with the PD. Gaer was a walking Rule 3 and the king of the bottom feeders. I hope Rump is not a bottom feeder as well, but I have my doubts.

Rumpole said...

I decided to publish your comment because it is so wrong. Sy more than likely won more felony jury trials than you ever tried. He had his method and it worked in a lot of cases, and didn't work in some. But he knew what he was doing and he was very very effective in trial and he provided a service to thousands of defendants who knew what they were getting with him. And as to fees, I would say that he charged more ten years ago than many lawyers are charging today. And he got paid and he earned it. I am not quite sure what the phrase bottom feeder exactly means. But Sy was honest, hard working, cared about his clients and did a very good job and that is more than I can say about most lawyers I see in court today who grab a fee while promising a client the moon with trials and motions and then grab the first plea tossed their way. Sy never ever surrendered when the client told him to fight.

Anonymous said...

Rump - take the Sy diss down, leave your response up. It is such bad form to talk ill of the dead, especially when you are wrong. If that was about one of my loved ones, I would be sick to my stomach.

Anonymous said...

Geeze enough already. Somebody call the shumie.

DS said...

Sy was great. He did Arthur Hearings for discovery, He knew more about the State's case then the ASA trying it. He new his audience , the Jury and was a bitbulll in trial. He was a good man and a great attorney. He had his style and flair.
He was a war hero, having been bayonetted in Korea.
I an a better person from knowing him.

Anonymous said...

First time I ever agreed with DS. Those of us lucky enough to have been exposed to him as a new attorney are all the better for having seen him in action.

Anonymous said...

What's a bitbull?

Anonymous said...

Mr. Gaer served a very good purpose. He kicked butt and didn't charge much.

He was polite and funny and I enjoyed knowing him.

He also served his country well and almost died doing so.

I knew Sy Gaer and you pal (the asshole who insulted him years after his death) are no Sy Gaer....

Anonymous said...

This blog is turning into a nursing home and funeral home. The posts and comments are always about someone that's dying or already dead.

RIP Justice Building Blog

Prognosticator said...

Rump. You may want to state which network as to the contest. CNN, FOX, CBS, NBC, ABC .???

Anonymous said...

I wish I new Sy the way DS new him!

Anonymous said...

@7:27, the south florida blog is filled with hotties, sex, cultural media....did I mention the hotties and sex?

DS said...

Sorry Pit Bull noy bitbull
or maybe Sy was a Mastiff

fake country dave said...

As hurricane Sandy formed and it became clear that it would hit the northeast and affect Pennsylvania and Ohio Obama quietly ordered the pentagon to put elements of the 82nd airborne division that is specially trained for urban street fighting on ready alert. The plan is that if the storm affects power for voting and turn out in NY, NJ, Pennsylvania and Ohio to the extent that exit polls show unusual results and unexpected leads for Romney, the pentagon will send the 82nd airborne into the affected areas to seize the ballots, secure the voting places, arrest any state or federal official that tries to interfere. Meanwhile the DOJ will file a lawsuit to extend voting hours or even voting days until, the Obama administration believes it can get enough turnout to put the state back into Obama's column. Meanwhile, Obama will appoint a presidential elections commission made up of six members: two appointed by the president, two by the senate (one each for the democrats and republicans) and two appointed by Congress (one each for the democrats and republicans) making the commission seem fair, and yet, 4 out of six members will be democrats who will either confirm the results for Obama or freeze the results if Romney is in the lead.

The sum total of all of this is that there is a military coup pending at the highest levels of the US government and we all need to be prepared.

Anonymous said...

The Republicans / conservatives would like to turn over everything to the states and here's why. They love the "power" .They would rather call each state a country, rather than states so that they can become the King / Governor of their own country / state and that way they can
dictate how everyone lives and how they will serve the King! The long lines and convoluted ballot in FL are blatant, passive-aggressive voter suppression techniques perpetrated by Republican state leadership. Unfortunately the constituents of this state don't seem to mind their elected officials being nothing more than disreputable national punch-lines, so we'll probably be having the same conversation in 2016.

Anonymous said...

512: Sorry, but you obviously have no idea what you're talking about. Sy was a very good lawyer as anyone who ever litigated against him could attest.

Like you, I was skeptical of his approach and ability to try cases. Unlike you, I actually went and watched one of his trials. The case was a dead bang loser (for him). But, the jury LOVED him and acquitted his client. I couldn't believe it. I talked to other lawyers and they shared similar experiences.

When I was a prosecutor, I handled many cases with Sy. He was always a pleasure (and fun) to work with. When we discussed our cases, it was clear that he knew the facts cold (he usually knew far more than I did). Just because he didn't do things the way you do, doesn't mean that he didn't know what he was doing.


PS---your backhanded stab at the PDs also is just plain ignorant. I know MANY dedicated and hard-working PDs who are just as good as the top private attorneys.

Anonymous said...

Happy birthday Sy. I miss you old friend. As for the person that spoke bad about you they really did not know you. Either as a lawyer or friend. Pity for them. You were a great person and will always be remembered that way.