NFL WEEK 14 2025

UPDATE:  👑 We have a winner in the 2025 award winning, famous REGJB Survivor Pool, and for the third (?) time, it is your humble blogger 👑 Rumpole. And we are a bit sad. Dan Tibbet played a very strategic game. He went 14 games deep into a difficult season, and he would have been a worthy champion. But maybe in what is shaping up to be Rumpole's swan song season in football/blog related activities, this was bound to happen. It was a good win against a deep field of experienced players. We hope the new blog operators continue what is now a twenty-plus year blog and REGJB tradition.  👑 We shut down our iconic email FBpool12@gmail.com for maybe the last time, and say maybe we will see you next year, and maybe we won't. Adventure beyond the confines of Miami and the REGJB awaits! 👑 

We are feeling very good this football Sunday. Early in 2024 someone whispered "Indiana" in our ear, and we have been riding the Hoosiers football team like our investment in Nvidia circa 2015. Last night we had the Hoosiers with the money line over Ohio State. While we still think the Buckeyes are the best college football tram in the nation, we cashed on the Hoosiers and ordered the king crab legs in a late-night repast. 

Survivor Pool: Ace Appellate Lawyer Dan Tibbett refuses to lose, as does Rumpole, so on we go into week 14. DT picks the Bucs at home, and Rumpole picks the Broncos to bounce back in Las Vegas. 

Today we like the Seahawks - 6.5 at the reeling Atlanta Falcons. 

We also like the J E T S Jets Jets Jets at home over your Miami Dolphins. We were at the Fins last week and watched them do just about everything they could to throw away the game to the Saints (and they costs us money, blowing a 4th Q 9 point lead, only to pull out a 4 point win when we were laying 5). The Jets are having a bit of resurgence, so we will take them, at a cold Meadowlands in New Jersey +2.5 over Miami. 

We are also going to do a $20 parlay Seattle & Jets. 

For our longshot today, Bengals +225 money line at Buffalo. Cincy is not out of the playoff race yet, and Joe Burrough is back with his two all pro wide receivers. Buffalo...? We cannot explain why they are up and down this year, when they should have run away with the AFC. But they are. So we are going with Who Dey? today.

The weather in Buffalo (snow ❄) and Jax (rain ⛆) has us taking Under 54.5 Bills/Bengals and under 45.5 Indy/Jax. 

For Monday night we are watching the Eagles /Chargers line. Philly is -2.5 on the road. We think the smart money will go on Philly, so if the line moves, we will start taking the Eagles. 

Who's traveling for the holidays? 

THE CARRY TRADE

 Our readers asked for more financial/investment content. You ask/we deliver.* 

To explain a Carry Trade, we need to define terms. 1) Selling short. A stock or bond goes up or down. An experienced investor who thinks the stock/bond is going to go down can sell it without owning it. Really. It's called selling short. If you think XYZ that has a price of 100 is going down, you sell it at 100 and get the hundred bucks. That's a good part. Let's say you're right and the stock falls to 90. You buy it at 90 and the ten dollars is your profit. Sold at 100 & bought at 90. The downside is let's say you're wrong and the stock goes to 110, then you have lost 10 dollars. The risk in this trade is that your potential loss is unlimited as the stock can just keep going up. Selling short is for experienced traders only. We do it very rarely. Global Crossing way back in the 90's. Snap about ten years ago. 

Okay, still with us? 

There's a group of traders controlling a large amount of money- as much as 100 billion dollars. For almost all of 2010-2025, the Bank Of Japan (BOJ- Japan's equivalent of our fed) kept Japan's interest rate very low- around 1%. During that time the rate of a standard US Treasury Bond was between 4-6%. 

SO, the traders SOLD the Japanese bond at 1% and got the cash. They BOUGHT the US Treasury at say 4% and the difference in the price (called arbitrage) was profit. For example. Sell a thousand-dollar Japanese bond at 1% and pay ten dollars a year in 1% interest. Buy a US Treasury bond for the thousand dollars you got from the Japanese bond at 4% and collect 4% interest/ forty dollars a year. A thirty dollar a year profit!  Now do that for 50 billion dollars and you are making some Rumpole type money.  This is called The Carry Trade. 

BUT what happens when the BOJ decides to raise rates? As Scooby Doo would say "ruup ro!"  The sharp traders bopping along making their 3% arbitrage profit while sipping margaritas in Cabo and looking for their next Lambo have a problem. They need to raise cash to unwind the trade. They have to buy back those billions in Japanese bonds they have sold short. So they SELL their US stocks where they have put their profits (it's complicated why they can't sell their US bonds- they can, but the price will be falling, and they don't want to take another loss) so what happens when a few large firms start dumping billions of US equities? The stock market falls. No Santa Claus rally. 😢

This last happened in January of this year, causing the stock market to rapidly fall for no discernable reason after the Yen strengthened in December 2024.  And it may happen again as Japan's new prime minister (their first female PM) takes bold steps to energize the Japanese economy. 

What to do? Not much. What you need to understand is that there is an external force (unwinding the Japanese Carry Trade) causing stocks to fall. Nothing is wrong with the companies whose stock is being sold by the traders who need to close out their positions in Japan. An external and unrelated issue is causing their price to fall. But people who have their money in those stocks get scared and they start selling as well, and the price falls even more. It usually takes about a week for everything to stabilize. 

So what to do(2)? Remember the wise words of the best investor our generation -Warren Buffet. When people are greedy, be fearful. When people are fearful, be greedy. 

Will all of this happen? Maybe. Watch what the BOJ does on interest rates in December. And then watch the market, and if possible, channel your inner Warren Buffet and be greedy.

We may call these our "Financial Thursdays" because "Financial Fridays" is just too obvious. 

*Except when we don't feel like it. 

LEADING BY EXAMPLE

 President Lincoln signed the Emancipation Proclamation on January 1, 1863 in the President's Office. 

President Truman signed Executive Order 9981 on July 26, 1948, which integrated the US Armed Forces. 

President Eisenhower sent the 101st Airborne to Little Rock Arkansas to enforce Brown v. Board of Education and integrate Central High School over Governor Faubus's refusal to comply with Brown. 

President Kennedy proposed a Civil Rights Bill which President Johnson signed into law as the 1964 Civil Rights Act. 

Martin Luther King dreamed of a world where his children were judged by the content of their character and not the color of their skin. 

President Reagan said "Our nation is a nation of immigrants. More than any other country, our strength comes from our own immigrant heritage and our capacity to welcome those from other lands."

On December 2, 2025, the current president of the United States, during a Cabinet Meeting, called US Representative Ilhan Omar "Garbage" (she is of Somali descent) and then said about the Somali population: "They contribute nothing. I don't want them in our country. Their country is no good for a reason, and I don't want them in our country." 

So much for judging a person as an individual instead of as a class of people. 

Somalis are garbage. 

Irish are drunks. 

Italians are thieves. 

Jews are money hungry. 

Asians are sneaky.

Civil lawyers are pernicious, and people from Hialeah are weird. (Ok, some depictions are truer than not). 

We have a president who is spouting racist tropes as his way of leading by example. America 2025. 

FIRST MONDAY IN DECEMBER AND APPELLATE LAW

 Nothing unusual about the first Monday in December, other than it starts a month of holidays, holiday parties, and a general feeling that work can wait. Which means, for Rumpole, this is the perfect time to try that pesky case that has hung around all year. So take our advice, announce ready, and pick six (or twelve in fed court).

Speaking of federal court, those pesky judges of the Third Circuit ruled today that Alina Habba, the putative US Attorney for New Jersey (Motto: "Yes Mr. President, Of Course Mr. President, Anything You Say Mr. President") was in fact not lawfully appointed and is NOT the US Attorney for New Jersey. The opinion is here.

Habba was appointed an interim US Attorney. Then the term expired. Then the Judges of New Jersey appointed a well-respected and experienced prosecutor in the Office. Then Bondi fired the attorney the Judges appointed. Then Bondi appointed Habba first assistant, making her the de facto (Latin for what Trump wants) US Attorney and also appointed her a Special Attorney For New Jersey. We always knew Habba was special, and this confirmed it. Yuk Yuk Yuk. 

 Then the Judges of New Jersey challenged Bondi to Rock-Paper-Scissors to settle the dispute. Then the score being 2-2, Bondi chose Rock while the Judges went with paper. Then Bondi said Rock can be thrown through paper and "I win. Habba stays." Then there was an appeal in which the 3rd Circuit held that Bondi's actions were designed to thwart the law Congress enacted. The Court further held that "as long as anyone can remember, paper covers rock, and the Judges won fairly and squarely. Habba is out." 

As Bruce sings about New Jersey, "In the day we sweat it out on the streets of a runaway American dream. At night we ride through the mansions of glory in suicide machines. Sprung from cages on highway 9, chrome wheeled, fuel injected and steeping out over the line." 

"The Trump Administration stepped out over the line.  Affirmed. See Born To Run, Bruce Springsteen, August 25, 1975. "

Fun facts: All three members of the panel of the 3rd Circuit have their first name as an initial, which will give rise to conspiracy theorists. The opinion was written by Judge D. Michael Fisher, and was joined by Judges D. Brooks Smith and L. Felipe Restrepo. What do you make of that? VERY VERY suspicious. And has ICE checked on Judge Felipe's immigration status? Just asking. 

Also, we kid you not, one of the Appellees goes by the Nom- de New Jersey as ....wait for it....

"Flipping NJ".

Gotta love appellate law. 

NFL WEEK 13 2025 THANKSGIVING SUNDAY POETRY EDITION

Rumpole Dolphis Adventure Update:

 A client called us on Saturday and invited us to the game this Sunday. Here is our review. 

We should have stayed home. First, our driver is off this weekend, so we ventured into an Uber to Hard Rock Stadium. Apparently the official Uber drop-off point is in Homestead, or at least it felt like it- after we walked for what seemed like forever, only to find our seats with Hoi Polloi around the twenty-yard line. How do you people fly commercial? The food options looked like they were created and executed by cooks fired by Taco Bell. Granted there were plenty of cold beer options, but then, there wasn't enough beer in the stadium to make any of the food options palatable. Even our clients at FDC would have declined the food. 

The seats felt like they were designed for Ms. Fishbone's first grade class.  Well, maybe not as roomy as the first graders have. And the patrons reminded us of the REGJB jury pool on Thursdays when most of the jurors who have a GED have already been selected and what is left is well, like Dolphin fans during a meaningless game. 

And then the final insult was the wandering in the wilderness, like a modern-day diaspora, searching for a place, like Moses looking for an oasis in the Sinai, where an Uber could get to us. 

In the final analysis the criminal justice system could make use of the conditions at Hard Rock: "Judge, the State's offer is six months' probation, special condition they attend a Dolphins game via Uber and must order twenty dollars of food." 

Defense Attorney: How about probation, special condition ten weekends of jail as our counter offer?

This may be the best football weekend of the year. Four great Turkey Day games, followed by great college football rivalry games on Friday and Saturday, and now we have our Sunday lineup. 

We lost our Ohio State/over parlay on Saturday, but got even and then some with the Under in the Alabama/Auburn Iron Bowl, which we sweated out until the final play. Overall, we had a very profitable$ Thanksgiving Holiday. 

In our world-famous Survivor Pool, Rumpole has the Patriots, and Dan Tibbet has the Chargers. The battle goes on. 

Our best bet is Indy at home -3 over the Texans. Load up on the sweet line and pay for that Rolex or Channel Bag for Xmas. Now don't go crazy here. The Texans have the best D in the league this year. But we think the Colts have more to lose today, and have the motivation to win by a TD. 

You know what else we like? YOUR Miami Dolphins, at home, -5 over a beat-up New Orleans team without their star RB Kamara. Miami is coming off a bye, and the team is tanned and well rested and ready to try and save their beleaguered coach's job. Very quietly Fins RD Achane is putting together an All-Pro year. He is a spectacular offensive weapon (that we just happen to have in our FF league, eschewing the overrated WR Justin Jefferson of the Vikes that an unnamed Judge drafted which is why his team is a basement dweller.) 

Just for fun: Jets +3 at home over the Falcons, Denver -6 (riding a 9 game winning streak) over the DC Commies, and maybe the Giants +7 just to keep is close in New England. 

How many of you fought for parking on Friday and went to a mall? You know what we did? We read poetry.  Try this. 

Dover Beach, by Matthew Arnold. Those last lines we highlighted. We've just been saying that to ourselves over and over all weekend. 

The sea is calm tonight.

The tide is full, the moon lies fair

Upon the straits; on the French coast the light

Gleams and is gone; the cliffs of England stand,

Glimmering and vast, out in the tranquil bay.

Come to the window, sweet is the night-air!

Only, from the long line of spray

Where the sea meets the moon-blanched land,

Listen! you hear the grating roar

Of pebbles which the waves draw back, and fling,

At their return, up the high strand,

Begin, and cease, and then again begin,

With tremulous cadence slow, and bring

The eternal note of sadness in.

Sophocles long ago

Heard it on the Ægean, and it brought

Into his mind the turbid ebb and flow

Of human misery; we

Find also in the sound a thought,

Hearing it by this distant northern sea.

The Sea of Faith

Was once, too, at the full, and round earth’s shore

Lay like the folds of a bright girdle furled.

But now I only hear

Its melancholy, long, withdrawing roar,

Retreating, to the breath

Of the night-wind, down the vast edges drear

And naked shingles of the world.

Ah, love, let us be true

To one another! for the world, which seems

To lie before us like a land of dreams,

So various, so beautiful, so new,

Hath really neither joy, nor love, nor light,

Nor certitude, nor peace, nor help for pain;

And we are here as on a darkling plain

Swept with confused alarms of struggle and flight,

Where ignorant armies clash by night.

BLACK FRIDAY 2025

 Happy day after Thanksgiving, when Article IV of the Constitution says "And Congress shall make no low prohibiting or interfering with every American's right on the day after the day of thanks to purchase items half off." So enjoy those rights 48% of the population thinks are in the Constitution.  

We gave you two of three winners in yesterday's games. And we told you that the big bet was Cincy over Baltimore, and as it turned out it was not even close. You're welcome.  Right now, computer AI projections have the 62 Mets as the statistical favourites to win the AFC North as no other team wants it. 

 And the neighborhood is still reverberating with the cheers from the last catch Cowboy George Pickens made at the end of the game- giving him six for the day- and filling in the last part of the three-way parlay, Cowboys +3.5, Dak over 270 yards passing and Pickens over 5.5 catches. That $1500 parlay where we had a few thanksgiving guest as partners paid off very nicely for all.  You never heard so many people chanting "throw it to George" with less than two minutes left in a game. 

For today and the 3PM game on Amazon: 

Take some of that newly won turkey-day cash and plunk it down on Da Bears plus 7 in Philly. 

And while parlays are sucker bets, they are fun, and Thanksgiving football is all about having fun with friends. So if you want to follow Rumpole, this is our parlay: Over 43.5, Over Caleb Williams 203 yards and Over Caleb 1.5 TD passes (so he has to throw two). 

Have fun and enjoy.  And don't forget to exercise your constitutional rights and go on Amazon and buy that slow cooker and the Romba Robot Vacuum you just must have. 

THANKSGIVING 2025 TURKEY AND FOOTBALL PICKS

We have some Thanksgiving chores to do, so let's get to it. 

First up, we continue our epic battle with Dan Tibbett in the prestigious Blog Survivor Pool. Our pick this week, made days before the game is being played on Sunday, is the Patriots over the struggling Giants in New England. Root for Rumpole because this is our exact same pick in a Vegas pool where first place is six figures ($$$!!!), and we are still alive with about 200 out of 3,500 still in it. 

TURKEY TIPS 

No altruists we, but we want you have an enjoyable Thanksgiving dinner, and that starts with Turkey. Querry: When do you and your family eat Thanksgiving dinner? 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8? Rumpole tends towards a later dinning time, usually 5:30. 

For a turkey to be done, it's internal temperature must be 165 degrees or you will poison your guests. But Rumpole's first turkey tip is to take it out of the oven when it's 155 degrees, and keep it under cover, tin foil will do (as long as you recycle) as the turkey will continue to cook and you should nail the internal temp. 

Heat your oven to 425 and when you put the bird in reduce the temp to 350. Time for cooking is 2 1/2 hours for a 9-11 pound bird. Then go up a half an hour for every three pounds. So 3 hours for 12-15, all the way up to 4 1/2 hours for a 21-23 pounds. Most important: stuff seasoned butter (mix softened butter with salt and fresh rosemary) under the skin of the legs and breast, and then an hour into the process...baste baste baste!

We highly recommend spatchcocking, and if you pass, then cover the breast in tin foil (recycled) at about halfway through the cooking process. 

You should also consider the upside down method of cooking, if you're not frying the whole thing- which we have found out to be a spectacular way of cooking that bird. You should also brine the bird, but you may be out of time if you're considering this now. 

Enjoy your thanksgiving, and we hope you took advantage of our prior posts and made a donation to the charities that help feed South Florida. Click the link, go to the prior post, and make a donation today in honor of all you're thankful for.  It's a feel-good thing to do on thanksgiving, and it makes a difference. 

FOOTBALL THANKSGIVING DAY 2025 

There are a few good games up today including Cowboys/Chiefs, Packers/Bears, and Bengals/Ravens. 

   We will start with the last game of the day: Bengals at Ravens. Bengals QB Joe Burrow returns after a long injury. Burrow may well be the first- or second-best QB in the AFC, along with Bills QB Josh Allen. The Ravens are 7-point favourites, and we think that is too much, so yesterday we locked in a hefty Bengals + 7 wager. 

The first game of the day is Green Bay at Detroit. The Lions are the standard -3 at home. We think Detroit is the better team in this otherwise unexciting, mid, game. Lions -3. 

The Cowboys are home dogs against the Chiefs in the middle game of the day- the time maybe you're having that ham sandwich and first cocktail (or gummy these days) of the day, as a warmup for dinner. Perhaps some spinach-artichoke dip as well, or those mini-cocktail franks which we think are on our menu today- but only with the deli mustard.   Where were we? Oh yeah, the pick. We are tired of picking the Chiefs saying that we won't bet against Mahomes in a must win game. You know what? The Chiefs are not winning the super bowl this year. They are not even going to the super bowl this year. And as much we never trust the Cowboys, maybe after their come from behind win against the Eagles last week they are on a roll (the crusty kind with rosemary). Take Dallas as a home dog +3 for a just a few slices of pie. Not too much, as the holiday gift season is approaching and you will never fund it with bets on the Cowboys. 

So there you have your 2025 Thanksgiving post. Maybe our last Turkey Day post, or maybe next year we will continue to do special holiday posts. We guess it all depends on how much satisfaction we get from our new endeavors. 

Enjoy today and the holiday weekend. 

GREATEST THANKSGIVING SHOW EVER

 This one is OG. Historic. There may be other funny thanksgiving episodes from a sit-com, but they all come in second place to WKRP's infamous and hysterical Turkey Drop. 

"God as my witness, I thought Turkeys could fly." 

Enjoy 

THANKSGIVING POLLS

 We have never done this before, so why not? Take our Thanksgiving polls and let everyone know your ideal feast. 

Ever since Blogger got rid of the poll widget, polls are such a pain to create. 

BEST THANKSGIVING SIDE

Stuffing

Green Beans made with cream of mushroom soup

Mashed Potatoes

Sweet Potato Pie

Cornbread

Mac And Cheese

Dinner Rolls

Cranberry Sauce

Created with Poll Maker

WHICH TYPE OF CRANBERRY SAUCE

Jelly Roll from the can

Fresh Cranberries

Created with PollMaker

FAVOURITE PIE FOR THANKSGIVING

Apple Pie Pecan Pie

Pumpkin Pie Sweet Potato Pie

Created with PollMaker

EE

THANKSGIVING MAIN DISH

TURKEY

SPIRAL SLICED HAM

Create your own Polls