Feb 2015 When you are right you are right!
WE AGREE
NO EXCUSES!
And when you're right- you are right. "Tariffs are a sure road to doom and disaster."
Well said Mitt.
WHAT TO DO?
We do not love giving investment advice on this platform. But here's a few things to keep in mind. The greatest stock investor of our generation- Warren Buffet said this: "When people are fearful be greedy. When people are greedy be fearful." The VIX- known as the "fear index" went from mid-teens during the bull market last month to over 30 on Friday. People are fearful. So do with Warren Buffet said to do. Be greedy.
Amazon is, after Friday, trading at 15 times cash flow- the lowest in its entire history. Free cash flow is expected to grow 33% a year for the next five years. Its forward PE is similar to 2009. They are building their own chips. They currently deploy 750,000 robots. They have the 3rd largest digital ad business. $amzn is a Rumpole buy.
So is Nvidia. It is the leader in AI chips and its moat is at least five years wide. There are 300 Billion with a B commitments to new data center spending for FY 2026 and that is firm. and 95% of that spending will include putting Nvidia's new generation of chips in those data centers. Nvidia is the only AI chip game in town for the next five years. If you have ANY worries (and Nvidia has literally doubled our own considerable wealth in the last 18 months) then Taiwan Semi Conductor is a solid second choice. Semiconductors are exempt from the tariffs and $TSM has committed to investing 100 Billion with B dollars in US manufacturing plants over the next four years. #TSM is playing the game and the current administration the way it needs to be played.
Final thought. The 20 worst days in stock market history since 1970 have been followed by ten of the best days over the next month.
Look at it another way. There is not one time- NOT ONE- that a stock market correction has not been followed by a larger rally, Not one time. True- the 2007 downturn took five years to recover. But that was an anomaly. Usually a large downturn is followed by a larger rally within six months. Think of what happened during Covid. The shutdown caused a massive selloff (we began our third serious accumulation of Amazon at that point- our first was 1999) which was followed by a sustained rally. If you do not need the money today, tomorrow, or next week, the time to buy is coming up.
The market has not hit a bottom. The bottom occurs when everyone who is afraid has sold all they have. There are technical indicators we use to find a bottom- and it is near. But if you do not care to time the market, and have a 1-5 year horizon on investing, then just start buying. 10 share of Amazon and Nvidia every day until you've spent your nest egg. Then relax, have a beer and watch some baseball.
If you have ANY concerns- just reread what Warren Buffet said to do- then do it.
22 comments:
I believe you are correct. I have followed your stock advice over the years. You have been right every time.
I will follow you on Monday and buy buy buy.
What about selling my bonds and buying equities ?
Buy slowly. If you have enough to buy let’s say 100 shares of nividia. About 9500. Watch the open. If the market tanks wait. If it goes sideways buy 10 and see what it does. You have some time here. Nvidia below 130 is an absolute steal.
invest in commodities.
Stock market buying implies faith in society holding relatively stable in whatever is coming politically. Hope so.
I’m more concerned with the abuse and corruption at the SAO!
Invest in canned foods.
RUMPOLE. Could the US be in the midst of a civil war?
Could the judiciary as it relates to District Judges be extinguished by congress by legislative act? After all, the constitution leaves that level of the judiciary to congress.
Could congress not reach agreement on permanent tax cuts resulting in our largest tax increase in US history?
Could Trump decide cryptocurrency is our new reserve and wipe out dollar spending?
Will America one day have a Red Square type of environment in which the great leader Trump has his picture on every square and every school?
Do you recommend buying crypto now to prepare?
I’m in fear RUMPOLE. Never have been before. I feel for others who may lose their rights and their savings.
Can you comment on this?
Liberal elitist criminal lawyers pontificating on the economy. It was Rumpole who just before the tariffs said to buy apple - made in china. 🇨🇳 your out of the money on that trade. Now go to Europe and count the American cars on the road. 100 percent tariffs to protect their own manufacturers. Buy ford stock.
Dehydrated emergency meals
and ammunition
“What to do?”
Build back better
You liberals are very funny and entertaining
Wake up people ! POTUS Donald J. Trump was chosen by God to MAGA ! Own only one stock; Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (ticker: $DJT). You're welcome.
There’s politics at the SAO I’m not familiar with.
I only care about how pork bellies are doing.
I have not read The Blog in a few weeks, and I realize now that it is time to remove it from my Bookmarks. While I am ready to march in the next anti-Trump demonstration, Rumpole's ongoing political commentary is neither helpful nor relevant. It's also not witty or original. And now giving investment advice?
Beating up on the SAO has also been overdone. It is well settled that well over 90% of those arrested are guilty of the highest crime charged. While some attorneys and cases will attract press, it will be mostly because of some high-dollar attorney or the pre-crime notoriety of some "influencer" facing charges.
The willingness of defense counsel to let their clients rot in pre-trial detention for years and years, rather than taking the case to trial promptly, is seen as the inaction of lazy lawyers who hope to win on a speedy trial motion. Perhaps it is time for the press to have a look at that ongoing problem. You can count on the fingers of one hand the number of defense counsel who actually file a Demand for Speedy Trial.
My mom said I still have some baseball cards in the attic. I'll go check them out.
It's a good thing that baseball cards are recession proof, even when faced with a senile president seeking to tank the market.
Dear 11:31;
You Trumpanistas are fascist authoritarians, not conservatives. If you were conservative, you would have read Adam Smith, but, Trumpanistas, like their leader, struggle to read. Here's the pull quote.
"It is the maxim of a every prudent master of a family, never to attempt to make at home what it will cost him more to make than to buy. The taylor does not attempt to make his own shoes, but buys them of the shoemaker. The shoemaker does not attempt to [183] make his own cloaths, but employs a tailor. The farmer attempts to make neither the one nor the other, but employs those different artificers. All of them find it for their interest to employ their whole industry in a way in which they have some advantage over their neighbours, and to purchase with a part of its produce, or what is the same thing, with the price of a part of it, whatever else they have occasion for. What is prudence in the conduct of every private family, can scarce be folly in that of a great kingdom. If a foreign country can supply us with a commodity cheaper than we ourselves can make it, better buy it of them with some part of the produce of our own industry, employed in a way in which we have some advantage. The general industry of the country, being always in proportion to the capital which employs it, will not thereby be diminished, no more than that of the above‐mentioned artificers; but only left to find out the way in which it can be employed with the greatest advantage. It is certainly not employed to the greatest advantage, when it is thus directed towards an object which it can buy cheaper than it can make."
True then; true now.
Trump wins again in USSC.
18 USC section 1983 habius corpus
Any magistrate clerk knows DC courts lacked jurisdiction. First question I was taught; Does the court have jurisdiction to hear the case before them? Stop the liberal forum shopping.
Watching Handmaids Tale.
Ford hasn’t moved in years. And considering Henry Ford was a raging antisemite, my Jewish friends and I will pass. Most importantly, never bet against Apple.
Excellent quote, thanks Kid.
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