SWING STATE PREDICTIONS

 Here's what we see.

First, the shock is that over the weekend a very well respected Iowa pollster published a poll  showing Harris in the lead in Iowa of all places. If those six electoral votes are in play, then things become better for Harris, but not a lot. 

Here are our toss up states:  Nevada (6); Iowa (6); Wisconsin (10); Michigan (15); Pennsylvania(19); Georgia(16); North Carolina(16) and New Mexico (5). 

With those as toss ups,  and counting the safe states for each candidate (like California for Harris and Texas for Trump) Trump leads 246-205. 

If we lean Wisconsin and Michigan to Harris and Iowa and Pennsylvania to Trump, its 265-230 Trump, and he is five votes away from regaining the presidency. 

If we then add Nevada for Harris, New Mexico for Trump, and Georgia and North Carolina for Harris Trump wins 270-268. 

So it all comes down to Pennsylvania unless Harris wins New Mexico.  Based on polling showing that people making up their minds in the last week have broken 60-40 Harris, and that people voting on the economy are 52-48 Trump - which is a drastic change from when Biden was running and it was 60-40- Harris has closed the gap. \

Which means it comes down to New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina. We are fairly confident Harris wins Georgia and North Carolina.   

Which means if she take New Mexico, she wins 273-265. If she pulls out Pennsylvania and wins North Carolina and/or Georgia, its game over. 

But we really don't have confidence she will win New Mexico or Pennsylvania.  It’s verrrrrrrry close. 

And consider this- Maine splits it two electoral votes- we have both going to Harris, but Trump can split the state. Nebraska also splits its three votes and we have Trump winning two of three. If he could take the third vote and one from Maine, that's four of the five he needs based on the scenario where he is at 265. 

Trump has the clearer path to the presidency assuming he takes Pennsylvania. He can lose Georgia and North Carolina and still win because he is taking back Arizona which he lost in 2020. 

Harris has momentum. And she needs to hope that the female vote in Nevada, Pennsylvania and New Mexico were undercounted in polling data. If that is the case, this will not be close and we can move on to the riots,  meritless lawsuits, and claims that dead dictators rigged voting machines. 

Here is what Iowa means to us. Pollsters are picking up momentum for her. If that translates beyond Iowa, whoopee! If not, it doesn’t mean a whole lot. 

If the recent (non-Iowa)  polls got it right, then this thing- and perhaps American Democracy- is right on the edge of a precipice staring into a bleak dark hole of fascism and anti-intellectualism.

The world is watching. 

We will have a post later today about American Exceptionalism.