NFL 2010 CHAMPIONSHIP SUNDAY!!

FIRST, IMPORTANT BUSINESS: we received this important comment:

Rumpole: There have been several inquiries on where to give to assist the children of the slain officers. Here is one way, through the Dade County PBA, you can donate to their "Love Fund" by making your check payable to: The Dade County PBA Love Fund, with `Officers Castillo and Haworth' in the memo section. The mailing address is 10680 NW 25 Street, Miami, Fl 33172. The Dade County PBA Love Fund is a federally recognized charitable organization established in 1984 to aid law enforcement officers and their families in their time of need, including assisting the families of officers killed in the line of duty. RF

Rumpole says: Right now, before you do anything else, close the computer, go get your chequebook and go write a cheque and put it with your work for Monday so you don't forget it when you leave the house tomorrow. Nothing is more important than this. Sending even twenty dollars sends a message to the children of these officers far beyond the money...."we care and honor your father and mother far beyond what this money buys."

Please do it now.

CHAMPIONSHIP SUNDAY.

We wait all year for this. A great day of important football.

Mr. Markus takes the over 38 in the Steeler game. We will explain afterwards why he is mistaken (we don't want him to change his mind). But make no mistake about this: all is on the line- he wraps it up and a free dinner at Joes for him and his lovely wife if he wins today. Pressure is on.

Packers v. Da Bears: Hard to imagine this is the second meeting in the playoffs between these two storied franchises who have the longest rivalry in the NFL. They meet for only the second time in the playoffs in 70 years. To put it in prospective, the Steelers have played their division rivals in the playoffs many times (twice against the Ravens in the last three years, once against the Bengals in the last four years.).

Da Bears are getting 3.5 at home. A home dog in the NFC Championship Game??!!! How can you overlook that? Meet Jay Cutler. Bumbler. Stumbler. Can be great. Can be awful. Now compare him to the QB with the highest ever QB rating in the playoffs. The gambler in us says pick the Bears, forgo the points and take the money line. A hundred Ditkas on Da Bears gets you between 165-170 back. We may just do that when we speak to 52nd Street Irwin today, but for our purposes we take the Pack -3.5 for 500.

J...E...T..S...JETS JETS JETS!!!! Gang Green invades The Steel City for a great AFC Championship game.

But just like we told you last week in the Steeler game, it won't be close. Sorry big fella (Rex) but the train stops here. Great run. Amazing victory over the Cheaters for which that alone you deserve your own parade for getting in their heads and out coaching the biggest cheater of them all. BUT....

#1 defense. #1 fewest points given up. #1 Third down efficiency; #1 against the run (something crazy like 62 yds per game). The Steeler Defense is just superb. Add to that an explosive offensive; perhaps the best big game QB playing right now; speed burners in second year WR Mike Wallace and rookies Emanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown; experience in Hines Ward and Heath Miller. And don't forget a two time super bowl winning QB who engineered a last minute "school-boys-dream-of-this" 80 yard drive to win the Super Bowl two years ago. This is a championship team in its prime. All that adds up to a win in a big game.

Steelers -3 for 500 Polomalus in our contest against DOM for all the marbles!!!

What we considered:

Packers-Bears: The Packers could barely beat the Bears a few weeks ago when the Bears played a basic defense while the Packers needed a win. But Cutler is something like 1-4 against the Pack, plus he is most likely to implode while the Pack has the hottest QB in the game. The Bears started mediocre and are peaking at the right time, while the Pack has a minimal running game and is riding the arm of Rodgers. The Bears need to run and stop the pass and they can easily win this game. In the coaching matchup remember this- Bears coach Lovie Smith might well have been fired if he didn't get his team to this game. We like the Bears, but until Cutler shows us more in a big game.....

Jets-Steelers: Pretty Boy Sanchez hasn't thrown a ball in the air over 9 yards in the playoffs. That is bad news for the Jets except that the short passing game gives the Steelers fits in their pressure defense. Santonio Holmes can be a game changer as he was for years for the Steelers. The Jets were the last team to run against the Steelers for over 100 yards, but don't look for that to happen again. The Steelers will shut the run down, (they have always been able to stop LT-including the last time he was in Pittsburgh in the playoffs two years ago for the Chargers) take away the deep ball and challenge Sanchez not to make a mistake in the dink/dunk passing game. Special teams- they were the difference last time for the Jets (opening KO return for TD), don't look for the Steelers to make the same mistake today. Steeler TE Heath Miller- while the Jets won the last game, Steeler TE Matt Spath dropped 2 (count em-two) game winning TDS in the end zone in the last minute of the last game. The Jets will be motivated, but so will the Steelers. Coach Mike Tomlin has done a fantastic job getting his team to this point. Bringing them to 3-1 with their 3rd string QB and then getting his team on a 7-1 run after the blowout by the cheaters shows that Tomlin may well be the best coach in the game today. The Jets are the fun pick, the Steelers will get it done by 10-20 points as Sanchez makes a mistake in the 4th Q and the Steeler D blows the game open.

WILDCARD WEEKEND 2011

SUNDAY'S PICKS UPDATED BELOW.

Here we go...the NFL Playoffs are here, but remember:

Alles mit Maß und Ziel

Saturday's games:

Defending Champs New Orleans Saints are at Seattle. The Saints are favoured by 10.5. We would love to predict a Seattle upset- the first team in NFL history to make the playoffs with a losing record beating the Super Bowl Champs. We just can't do it. The over/under is 45. Take the over 45 for 400. If you have to, take the Saints and lay the points.

The J...E...T...S....travel to Indy to play the Colts. Very simple analysis to pick this game. Which team has the better QB? Hmm....Peyton Manning.....Mark Sanchez.....Peyton Manning....Mark Sanchez. A QB can carry a team for a game in the playoffs. The Colts are at home, inside, on turf, and Peyton Manning is their QB. Take the Colts -2.5 for 500.

WHY CAN'T THE DOLPHINS FIND A COACH?

Jason Cole eviscerates the Fins and their weird owner Stephen Ross here.

Where have you gone Wayne Huizinga? South Florida turns its lonely eyes to you.

SUNDAY' S GAMES:

Philly -2.5 at home for our pick versus DOM and for 750 Vicks. Gonna ride this Vick train for all the Cheese steaks in Philly.

Mr. Markus has already bit the dust with the Peyton "break my heart again in the playoffs" Colts. FYI- Manning is something like one and done eight times in the playoffs.

The Chiefs are three point home dogs against the Raven's. The Raven's are the best road playoff team this decade and of course they have a punishing defense. We're kicking ourselves for yesterday's picks because we really liked the Seahawks at home but couldn't pull the trigger. When you examine the metrics of this game, the teams are fairly well matched. The Chiefs are about three-four points better on offense and the Ravens are about three to four points better on defense. We think the Ravens should pull this one out, but the Chiefs are not a bad pick at +155 to forego the line, lay a hundred KC Barbecue ribs to get back 155.

We're pulling for the Chiefs but we're just not sure. So when in doubt, take the over 40.5 for 250 Cassels.

NFL WEEK 17 2010

Here we go, the last day of the regular season and Mr. Markus and I are in a virtual tie. Indeed last week he nosed a half game ahead, but we still have this week to play.

Mr. Markus is taking the Giants on the road at DC -4 against the resurgent Rex Grossman led Redskins. DOM believes the Giants have the more pressing need to win. We think the Giants get the nod because they are not as bad as their last two games indicate and they will nip this one out at the end as they regress to the mean. But that does not mean they will cover. Interesting pick. Go Skins!

We kinda like the Redskins and are sorely tempted to go the other way on this one, but we're also looking at the Rams at the Seahawks with the battle for the NFC West up for grabs. Both teams have a losing record but the Rams are the better team, especially on defense and at the QB position where Seattle is starting backup Charlie Whitehurst against Slingin Sam Bradford. As we heard one NFL commentator say this week: "If Charlie Whitehurst is the answer, what is the question?" Indeed.

Rumpole picks the Rams -3 for 300.

Both the Saints and the Falcons need to win tomorrow and we like them both. The Saints are 7.5 favourites at home over the Tampa Bay Bucs, and that's worth a fiver spot for us. The Falcons are smarting after a home loss to the Saints and seek to bounce back and end the season by trouncing the hapless Panthers. The Falcons are 14.5 favourites and that's worth a flyer for 200 "Matty Ice creams".

So which is it for our pick against DOM? We initially were going with the Rams but we decided to take the home town Saints to march us home to victory!

Good luck DOM. It's been a fun season.

MNF/TNF

We're not going to even bother to do the math. Suffice to say that we feel like the last time we picked a game right Neil Rogers (RIP) was on the radio saying

UN-BELIEVABLE.

MNF: The Saints are better than the Falcons. Simple as that. Saints 500 +2.

PLUS a 200 Parlay Saints-Eagles.

TNF: The snow is cleared and the Eagles are primed for the first NFL game canceled for snow since 1923. Lay the two TDs. Eagles -14 ....lets see if we can win the MNF game and then we'll pick a number.

UPDATE: 150 on the Eagles.

ps- to paraphrase Neil, if these dumb-asses on TV call the Falcons QB "matty-ice" one more time, I won't know whether to scream or eat a banana. Puhleeese. The last time I saw this putz he was throwing a pick in OT against the Steelers on opening day.

NFL WEEK 16 2010

Things could not be any closer as the season winds down in our pick-em contest with David Markus. With two games left in the regular season, and although we didn't discuss it we are willing to extend this to the super bowl, Mr. Markus is at 8-5-1 while we are at 9-6.

The Cheaters go Buffalo today and the visiting team needs to keep winning to lock down the number one seed in the AFC and get home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Over/Under is 45 and we'll pick the over in our contest with DOM and for 300 Fitzes today.

Time to get back on the winning track after two losing weeks, and we don't know any better or bettor way to do that then...a teaser!!! In a teaser bet the bettor can adjust the line 6 points and the odds are dependent upon how many teams are in the teaser bet. Today we like The Eagles at home over the Vikes with the line teased from Philly -14 to Philly -8; Giants at Packers with the over/under teased from 43 to 49 and we'll take the under 49 and the Bucs over the Seahawks at home with the line teased down from 6.5 t0 0.5 .

With a three team teaser the odds are 16-10 so we win 160 for every 100 bet. We'll lay 300 on this teaser, just for fun.

The game of the week (outside of the titanic Lions-Dolphins) is the Saints at Atlanta Monday night. The line favours the home team Falcons by 2.5. Too much is made over the Falcons home field run this year. We'll take the Saints but we'll announce the figure tomorrow.

NFL WEEK 15 2010

We're going to try and get back on track with some old favourites, specifically the Eagles, in New Jersey, getting 3 points playing the Giants. Risking 300 Andy Reids on this game.

We also like the Saints at the Ravens. The Ravens barely squeaked out an OT win last Monday night, while the Super Bowl Champs are peaking at the right time and are fighting for the division with the Falcons. The Saints have more to lose here and are the better team. We'll take the Saints getting 1.5 in our battle with Mr. Markus and we'll also risk 300 Brees to boot.

Houston at Tennessee. The number here is 47.5 and that seems high so we'll take the under for 300 as well.

It's been another tough week at the REGJB so forgive us if we are lacking in the normal Joie de Vivre. The year can't end quickly enough and hopefully good times and healing times are ahead in the new year.

NFL WEEK 13 2010

First the numbers- 1-2 last week, 24-17-1 for the season, +1880 for the year. Both DOM (7-5-1) and Rumpole (9-3) lost last week. This week Mr. Markus hops on the struggling Colts -5 at home against the resurgent Cowboys.

Tough week, not a lot of games look good with our metrics.

The Redskins travel to New Jersey to play the New York Giants. The o/u is 43. The history in this matchup is that the over has consistently paid off for the last 5 years. It is something like 9-1. Somehow we are leaning towards the under. However, we'll go with the numbers and take the over 43 for 300 and in our titanic struggle with Mr. Markus with a K.

Atlanta at Tampa Bay. Who has Tampa beaten with a winning record? No one. The Falcons -3 are the pick for 300.

J..E..T..S Jets Jets Jets. The Patriots are on a roll. Their dinky-dunky offense, revamped without the long ball when they sent Moss packing, is clicking. Give us a real team with a real defense and a real running game any day of the week. Forget the line. This game comes down to a point either way. So take Gang Green with no points and get +175 for every 100 you risk.

Jets- risking 200 to win 350.

NFL WEEK 12 2010

Good Sunday morning. The Dolphins are in Oakland and we're in a zone.

We won our Turkey Day pick when the Cowboys came storming back in the second half and lost by three while getting four at home against the Saints. We're 23-15-1 for the season, +2420 for the season and 9-2 against DOM (7-3-1).

Jacksonville Jags at NY Giants. The Giants are -7 at home and the o/u is 44.5. We like the Giants but we'll take the under, for 100 Elis.

The Colts are -3 at home against the now worst coached team in the league: The Chargers (Vanilla Phillips having finally been fired in Dallas). We like Indy as our pick in our battle against Mr. Markus, and we also like the Colts -3 for 200.

"Riding that pick....his name is Vick...." The soon to be NFC Champion Philadelphia Eagles are in Chicago where Da Bears are a home dog getting 3.5 points. Bears don't like dogs. The feeling is mutual. Eagles and Vick -3.5 for 400 Bruins.

NFL WEEK 11 2010

Good morning and welcome to week 11 in the NFL!

Here are the numbers: +2350 for the season; 21-14-1 in our picks.

DOM is 6-3-1 and Rumpole is 8-2.

Green Bay is at Minnesota. At 3-6 the Vikes are one loss away from being all but officially eliminated from the big dance and nobody more than the Packers would love to drive that stake through the heart of the ageless vampire Brett Favre. The over/under is 44 and we like the over for 300 Favres.

In out matchup against Mr. Markus we're going to ride that train called Vick until he pulls into the station marked "Dallas-Superbowl." The Eagles are -3 at home over the big men from New Jersey, and we are taking the Eagles, and also 300 of Pat's Cheesesteaks as well. Because we're hungry. DOM is hitching up his six shooter and putting on his ten gallon hat and taking the Texans +6.5 on the road in the big city against the JETS who btw set an NFL record for winning consecutive overtime games on the road.

We had to make our picks earlier in the week because Sunday is a travel day for us. We may update this as events, and our access to the internet, warrant.

NFL WEEK 9 2010

Good Sunday morning football fans and investors!

It was 54 degrees at 4 AM this morning, with the winds out of the NW at 9mph. The winds will swing to the north and increase to a breezy 20 MPH while the high is expected to be a very comfortable 72 degrees. The week will warm up: by Friday the lows will be in the low 70's and the highs in the low 80's as the winds, while staying out of the north, moderate.

Congratulations again to your Blog 2010 Suicide Pool winner, Miguel De La O.

The game we like today is Indy at Philly. Eagles coach Andy Reid is 11-0 coming off a bye week. Mike Vick starts again today for the Eagles, and the line is Eagles -3 at home.

Some other games we are looking at are San Diego at Houston: look for the Chargers to revert to their normal, poorly coached team; Cowpokes at GreenBay: The secret is out-the Cowboys have quit on their coach and the bidding war for Bill Cowher has begun; we think our Dolphins on the road at Baltimore have a shot to keep it close; and we like the Bucs getting 9 in Atlanta and the Cheaters giving 4 at the mistake by the lake (Cleveland).

Our season total is 18-12-1; our campaign war chest stands at +1660; and DOM is 4-3-1 versus Rumpole who is 6-2. All in all things feel nice.

In our matchup against the dauntless defender of desperate Federal defendants, we will go with the Pack -7 over the cowboys (they don't deserve to have a capital in their name) and we'll risk 200 blocks of cheese as well. DOM doesn't think much of our hot streak, he is taking the Colts, on the road in Philly +3.

The fun game of the day is the KC Chiefs against your Oakland Raiders, in Oakland, for first place in the AFC west. We have been kicking ourself all year against not seeing he reemergence of the Chiefs. With Romeo Crennel (a former head coach out of the Bill Beichick tree) running the defense and Charlie Weis (ditto) running the offense, this team was poised to take off. While we liked the Raiders at the start of the season, we like the Chiefs now. KC -1 +200 Cassell's.

And lets put our money where our mouth is- Eagles -3 over Indy for 300 Pat's Cheesesteaks, "wit" of course.

NFL WEEK 8 2010

UPDATE: LADIES AND GENTLEMEN....YOUR 2010 SUICIDE POOL CHAMPION.....

MIGUEL DE LA O(over). CONGRATULATIONS!!

Rocky Balboa said "You wanna dance, you pay the band. You wanna play, you pay the man."

Rumpole says: not so fast to that second line. If you followed us today, you went a stellar 4-0, giving you two bounce back winners, San Diego and our home town Fins, for a plus 200 Henne's. Our season total is now 560, and we won our second straight teaser bet for a plus 550. We are plus 750 for the day, but for the second week in a row, that two team teaser is riding on MNF.

Our season total is now a respectable 17-12-1. DOM and Rumpole both won today, so the totals are 4-3-1 for the erstwhile defender of Reggae stars, and 6-2 for Rumpole.

The man is paying you if you follow us....and that's the way it should be.

Good Sunday Morning.

After Monday Night's disaster, we're done with the Cowpokes and you can put a fork in them because they are done for the season.

Rumpole is 13-12-1 for the season after losing the last part of our IF bet on MNF.

Our winnings for the year as we approach the half way point to the season stand at 360 cupcakes.

The Suicide Pool winds down to two:

Plea D goes with gang green coming off the bye- the J..E..T...S, while Miguel De La Over is going to Kansas City (great bar-b-que) and the surprising Chiefs.

Having done so well on the teaser last week, we're going to do one again.

The troubled Vikes and their troubled QB literally limp into New England to play the cheaters. The over/under is 44, and we're taking the over and teasing that down 6 to 38. The line is somewhere between Cheaters -4 and -6, and Irwin in Vegas says 5 is where it seems to be settling, so we will complete out two bet teaser by taking the Cheaters and teasing that to +1 NE. We'll risk 500 Bundchen's on this bet.

IF we win the teaser (remember they pay 11-10), we'll roll our 550 onto the Colts at home -5 to get revenge over the Texans in the MNF game.

You want a bounce back game? We got one. No, not the Cowpokes. But the Chargers, at home, against the Titans. SD -4 over Tennessee for 100 Rivers.

DOM (3-3-1) v. Rumpole (5-2). Mr. Markus, having obviously perused our blog, goes with the Bolts in SD-4. We like the Fins getting one henne in Cincy. (Miami +1). And how about 100 Newmans on the Fins to win as well.

Happy Halloween.

NFL 2010 WEEK SEVEN

UPDATE! WHAT A DAY! Rick F and BDTD are out of the suicide pool as the Browns stun the Saints and Miguel De La Over and Plea D were down to the wire as the Ravens squeaked out a win in OT. With two people left, this is a good time for us to announce.....

SUICIDE POOL 2.0!! Week Eight till the end of the season. Anyone game?

Mr. Markus took the Jags +9.5 at KC and lets see....KC won by about 200, so DOM takes a loss while we romp with the Falcons over the Bengals and add 300 to our kitty as well.

Rumpole is 5-2 while DOM is a pedestrian 3-3-1. We we're up 360 for the year and we won our two team teaser, so we're up 600 for the day, but 300 of that is committed to the IF bet on the Cowpokes. Either way we're well in the black for the week, and 13-11-1 for the season.

It's a beautiful day here high in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, especially when we're winning.

Suicide pool: Miguel De La Over and Plea D have taken the Ravens and then nevermore;

Rick Freedman and BTDT march with the Saints.

We're at the Starbucks here in Truckee, on the Donner pass (stop by and see us, the latte is on us!) , and internet is spotty up here at best. We are writing this Saturday night and may not be able to get anything else up for Sunday before evening your time.

Rumpole v. DOM: Falcons -3.5 over Bengals, and put us down for 300 Matt Ryans as well.

FIRST TEASER OF THE SEASON! Remember that teasers pay 11-10 and you get an extra six points per team:

Bucs -3 (teased to +3) over Rams for 200 and...

Philly at Tennessee over 43 (teased to over 37)....laying 330 to win 300. And while we're at it, lets play an IF. IF the teaser, then

Cowpokes -3 over Giants.... so if our teaser wins, then we are laying 300 on the Cowpokes.

We called our favourite guy, known to you readers as 52nd Street Irwin, who currently and permanently makes the lines out in the sands of the desert of Vegas for a legal book, and he said we could actually parlay the teaser bet on the cowpokes but for complicated reasons it's better to play the IF bet.

Next week: IF and REVERSE bets.

Have fun.

NFL WEEK SIX

UPDATE: Lost the KC/Houston game by half a point. Let's push the JETS game to 500 and we'll take the Colts -3 for 400. DOM won his game handily as the Eagles pounded the Falcons. Can't get the metrics to work on the Cowpokes/Vikes game although we like the Vikes.

This week we see the return of Big Ben, the injury (physical and otherwise) to Brett Favre, and the questionable status of opposing Fin QB Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay. Call this week the week of the QBs.

We're 9-10 and -110 for the season after our come back week last week.

KC at Houston. KC is the type of team we have picked up on in pre-season in the past. We missed this one this year. A QB in his second year in the system. Romeo Crenel is their D coordinator while Charlie Weiss is the O Coordinator. What do they have in common? They were both coordinators under the evil genius/cheater Belichick in the early part of the decade when the Pats began their run. Re-united under the Chiefs they have given the team the coaching to win.

The line is Texans -4.5 and we like the Texans for 300 Schaubs. After building up the Chiefs we pick the Texans? Yup. Regression to the mean. The Texans are not as bad as they looked against the Giants last week, while the Chiefs are playing in their second tough road game in a week.

For the 4 O'clock games we're looking long and hard at the Vikings and the Colts. Check back.

Suicide Pool. And then there were five.

Miguel De La Over and Rick Freedman: riding the return of #7 in Steel town with Roethlisberger and the Steelers. If the Steelers light it up today, you have to consider them a serious Super Bowl contender. We will be watching this game closely as they are in Miami next week.

Plea D and Michael Feiller and BTDT : the big guys....the Giants.

DOM (2-1-1) v. Rumpole (3-2) :

Mr. Marcus has the Eagles -2.5. We were going to make it a real bet and take the visiting Falcons +2.5 but Atlanta does not play well on the road against a tough defense (see, week one, Atlanta at Pittsburgh) so we're going with one of our early season trends and bet against the Broncos and take the J...E...T..S, JETS JETS JETS on the road at Denver. Jets -3 and 300 Santonio Holmes as well.

NFL WEEK 5 2010

Update: The Dallas game was low hanging fruit, while we squeaked out an over in the Ravens game. We finish the week 2-2 which included a flyer on an upset special for 50 wings on the Bills who jumped out to an early lead, but lost. We also lost the over bet in the Atlanta/Cleveland game, which leaves us up 415 for the week but still in the red 110 for the season. Four winning weeks out of five and still down. This is a tough business.

9-10 for the total of picks for the season. And we won our side bet with Mr. Markus, as the Giants whuped his Texans, while our Ravens/Over pick slipped through.

Rumple 3-2; DOM 2-2-1.

Update: trying to get something going here with the 4 o'clock games. 400 Salads on Tennessee at Dallas over 43. Really sweated out the over in the Ravens game.

Good Sunday Morning.

Today is October 10, 2010, or 10/10/10. What will you be doing this morning at 10:10 am? We will be out for our run.

Special Rumpole quiz: we will email you a private hint for the first five people who email us the digital equivalent of the binary number of today's date.

Suicide Pool:

Cary Clennon: Bengals; Nick Basco: Saints; Juan Gonzalez: 49ers; Plea D, Miguel De La Over, Rick Freeman, and Michael Feiler (who was cheering his Noles yesterday) Colts.

BTDT also picks the Colts. and a word here about BTDT: he sent in his entire picks for the season on week one. He's still alive in week five, and that alone is a remarkable accomplishment.

Rumpole: Ravens ; 52nd Street Irvin: Bills(!!!??). DOM: Cowpokes.

At the moment it appears Clay Kaiser had feet of clay and defaulted last week. No motion to set aside the default, but faker former Judge Colby did file a motion to set aside his pick of the Eagles last week, citing to Blog ex rel Feiler. But the motion was neither timely filed, nor did arrive with the required supporting documents (a one hundred dollar bill, preferably in a stack of the same), so it was denied.

A word about anonymity. Writing a brilliant and funny blog is hard work. And many is the time we have sat in Au Bon Pain and over heard conversations about the blog, and how the lawyers love reading it. And this is entirely true: we once over heard a fetching PD intern say that she thought writers were sexy and did anyone know who wrote the blog?

But there are advantages to anonymity, and this week was one of them.

Can you imagine walking down the hallways this week and hearing people snicker "he lost all his picks last week" and having to deal with snooty federal bloggers who would be crowing "hey, I picked against you last week, bought my wife a new Rolex. Thanks!" and other such claptrap?

First the bad news: We point out that our unofficial picks on teams regressing to the mean did very well. And if we hadn't seen the weather report and bailed on the over in the Cincy/Browns game, we would have won that one. But the man must be paid: we were down 1430 for the week, and start today at -525. We are now 7-8 for the year.

Picks:

Atlanta at Cleveland. While we like the Browns to post a win today, we really like the over 41. This one will get us right back in it. 300 Mangini's over 41.

Denver at Baltimore. Again, we like the Ravens here, but we really like the

over 39 1/2. 400 Flacco's over 39 1/2. And this is our pick with Mr. Markus, while he goes with the Texans -3 over the Giants.

Upset Special: The Jaguars go to Buffalo to play the Bills. The Jags had a big win over the Colts last week, while the Bills are just not as bad as their 0-4 record indicates. This game regresses to the mean. Bills -1 over Jags, 50 Chan Galleys.

MNF DOLPHINS EDITION

First the bad news: Suicide deaths include Colby (and now we don't have to deal with that headache anymore) and Peter Sauter. Long time "pooler" Dan Lurvey really did commit suicide by picking the Bills over the Jets. BTDT stayed alive with the Jets, as did Nick Basso. Michael Feiler, still feeling lucky with his last minute pick of the Bruins last week, kept afloat with the Saints. 11 players remain heading into the second month of the season.

Our first losing week of the year, and it was a bad one. You know it's going to be bad when you cancel the only bet that would end up having won- the over in the Cleveland/Cincy game.

We went o-2 yesterday, bringing our season total to 7-6, and we lost 660, bringing our total down to a meager 245 Huizengas. And to make matters even worse, we lost out bet with Markus, and that standing is now Rumpole 2-2, Markus 2-1-1.

Monday night is get even night.

There is no way the Dolphins should lose this game. Furthermore, if they do lose it, they will have lost to the two division rivals at home in consecutive weeks. On that basis alone you can kiss the season goodbye.

The over/under is 49. Despite the Cheaters high powered offense, the Fins, Brandon Marshall not withstanding, don't have the firepower to run with them. Furthermore, we like the Fins D, and we expect the Fins to come out running and try and slow the game down. The more minutes the offense has the ball, the less time pretty boy Brady has to throw it to bad boy Moss.

Under 49 for 400. We also like the Fins -1, but instead of making that bet outright, we're going to parlay 300 under 49 and Dolphins -1.

Remember that a parlay pays 13-5.

Go Fins!!!!

NFL WEEK 4 2010

Good Sunday morning! Before we begin, there is an excellent comment in the previous post by someone who is well versed in the procedures of what occurs when a pregnant inmate gives birth while in custody. We are proud that we have such a diverse group of readers.

Week 4 presents as every week does, some problems and some opportunities. What we remind our readers who play along with us, is the topic we have often discussed on this blog: the regression to the mean. In plain english, what this means for those who wager a bob or two on the games, is that 95% of the teams in the NFL are neither as good as they seemed the week before, or as bad.

We are 7-4 for the season and plus 905.

Dolphins vs. Cheaters. We've been running the metrics on this game all week, and some surprising numbers jump out: teams that pass with play action on the cheaters' defense are 16-19 for almost 200 yards and 3 TDs. Obversely, pretty boy QB is 17-20 for almost 200 yards and 2 tds when passing out of the shotgun. Meaning: the Fins have the better defense, but can they run with the cheaters? We'll make a pick on Monday. The game is MNF in Miami.

Eagles vs Redskins. Gonna ride this Vick train until it crashes. Eagles -5.5 for 300.

Cheesesteaks. Long time and careful blog readers will remember our fondness for Pat's Cheesesteaks and not Geno's. Any Philly guy knows they are both right across the street from each other. Of course we take our cheesesteaks "wit".

UPDATE: It's pouring rain in Cincy. Cancel the pick . Browns at Bengals. Something we've seen in examining statistics leads us to take the over for the second straight week in a Browns game. Last week we shocked the betting community by picking the over in the Browns/Ravens matchup. When we checked with 52nd street in Vegas, where he helps set lines for a sportsbook, Irving told us that the books were way out on the under- meaning they had a lot more money bet on the under than the over and were facing a substantial loss if the game went under. When I asked him why they weren't moving the line down to attract over bettors he just chuckled. The game went over and they made a pretty penny. (remember a book's goal is to have the same amount bet on each side so they risk nothing and just rake in the ten points on the losers).

Over 37 Browns/Bengals for 200 Pennington's.

Regressing to the mean: Giants(-3) over Bears, Houston over Oakland (+3) ,

Seattle over St Louis (+1.5). These are not official picks. We're merely putting these out there to se if our theory holds.

SUICIDE POOL: WEEK FOUR:

Never mind about the stupid stuff we posted yesterday, Feiller picked the Bears and they won. He's alive. Sorry, nipping at the Bourbon all day.

Week four picks:

Colby-fake or otherwise: Eagles; Plea D: Falcons; Peter Sauter: Titans.

SAINTS: Juan Gonzalez, Miguel De La Over, Rumpole. DOM.

CHARGERS: Cary Clennon, Rick Freedman.

RUMPLE (2-1) v. MARKUS (1-1-1).

DOM surprised us last week, getting in his pick while waiting out his jury. At the last minute we jumped on the Fins and took our first loss of the year. This week we take the Titans -7 at home over the Broncos. And for the season running total we'll put 300 Buju's on the Titans.

Mr. Markus picks Houston -3.

Update: if you read DOM's blog, you know he lost his cell phone on a flight back from NY (really David, it's time for NetJets.)

Well, we know someone who found it. Tomorrow: "The surprising phone numbers in David's Phone." Only on the JB blog.

NFL WEEK 3 2010

UPDATE: Landed and home and happy to see we are 2-1, plus 280 for the day and 7-4 for the season and plus 905 at week three. Not bad.

Mr. Markus emails us his Cincy -3 pick, and he picks up his first win of the season to go 1-1-1.

It's late, so we'll take the Fins -2. More importantly, we hope to be congratulating him Monday.

Suicide Update: every pick below survived, but some sad news for these stragglers:

Marshall Dore Louis goes down with the Redskins, Luvery survives with the Vikes and Peter Sautter stays alive with the Patriots as does 52nd street with the Eagles.

Fake Blecher going with the hometown Fins.

Sorry for the spotty post, but we're trying to fly home and internet access is dicey.

Our record is 5-3 and were plus 625 Bujus for the year.

We love the Eagles -3 at JAX +400 Vicks;

Washington -4 over Rams for +200 McNabbs.

Cleveland at Ravens...the line is 37, and under seems like a lock. +100 Flaccos OVER.

Preliminary Suicide Pool: remember your email must be dated and timed before the game you pick. We'll clean this up Sunday night, Monday the latest.

Plea D -Colby-Clay K- Patriots;

Juan Gonzalez and Nick Basso-Rick Freedman-BTDT-David Markus- Ravens;

Fake Blecher-Eagles.

Rumpole- Cheaters.