FOOTBALL WEEK THREE

UPDATE: FINS WIN!!-  The Dolphins put to rest today any comparison between their undefeated team the the cheaters, when the evil genius  proved he cannot win without his precious Quarterback. A few numbers, actually one number jumps out: 21. The Cheaters had won 21 straight regular season games; the Fins were 1-21 in their last 22 regular season games. And number 21 for the 72 Fins? Jim Kiick, as the Dolphins KIICKED the Patriots today but good. 

We're up $507.50 for the year, and now things are tough. 

Some nice games this weekend, including Cowpokes at Green Bay and Steelers at Eagles. 

The Monday night game is the J..E...T...S  at San Diego. Lots of things to worry about in this game, including the health of LT. The over is 43, and Brett Favre on Monday night lights it up. Over +50. 

The Steelers drive down the Pike to Philly, and it won't be many times this year the men in Black and Gold are underdogs. The Eagles are coming off a short week, and a barn burner on Monday night. Can keep up the high level of play? Maybe. But take a flyer on the Steelers for +3.5 and +75.

The Bungles play the Gints in NJ. We blew it last week on the under as the high flying Giant Offense surprised us. No more. The Bengals have a few weapons, the Giants have a lot. Over 43  +100. 

Dallas goes to Green Bay with an awesome performance Monday night. They are a road team on a short week. The Pack loses their starting safety, and that's not good when you have to cover TO. However, we said Dallas is not as good as everyone thought they were, and the Pack would be better.  Home Dogs have bought many a bettor a mansion. The Pack +3 +50. 

Suicide Pool:

David Over Markus: The Bills. 

Rick Freedman: Giants

Steel Curtain: Patriots

Rumpole: Bills- Sunday morning change.

Feiler: Denver

Surph- Seattle (late pick but got it in.)

Stat of the week: For the two weeks after the Republican Convention, Dem VP Candidate Joe Biden gave 54 interviews or press conferences. Sarah Palin in the same time gave....ZERO. What are the Republicans afraid of? Thanks to the New Yorker Magazine for that stat. 

Obama had his first good week since the Republican Convention and he appears to be back on message.  The Good News for McCain is that the Rasmussen poll has McCain taking a slight lead (48-46) in Colorado this week. Colorado has become a battle ground state and both campaigns are spending time and money in the state. A week ago is was Obama 49-47. 

But Colorado aside, right now we have Obama at 263 with the close states Virginia and Michigan in his camp. We have McCain at  246 with Colorado and Florida and Pennsylvania in his camp, and Nevada and Minnesota about to be placed in his column. Ohio is still too close to call but we are watching some polls this weekend which may trend well towards Obama as his message on the economy has gained steam this week. Only 27% of Americans polled agreed with the statement that "John McCain was correct when he said the economy was fundamentally sound." 

If this was a football game this would be the start of the third quarter with McCain kicking off to Obama who is leading 7-3. McCain needs to hold and then score when he gets the ball to get back in the game.  One of this guys is going to have a "Dolphins" week soon, and that won't be pretty. 

NFL PREDICTIONS

EMAIL US YOUR PICKS FOR THE SUICIDE POOL. READ YESTERDAY'S POST FOR RULES AND DETAILS. 

Before we start with the important stuff, we love this line, from the Broward Blog, applauding the establishment of a permanent Judge to handle bond hearings (denied) and first appearances North Of the Border: "The blank, scared stares of the civil division judges will now be confined to weekends only."

Are you ready for some football? We are. And after the usual slow summer, we could use some flow. 

Tonight: The World Champion NY Giants take on the Washington Redskins in New Jersey.  The Gints are favorites -4. Take the Giants. The o/u is 40. We like the Under, just a little.  

New Feature: we'll put units on our picks, and keep score!

100 units on the Gints. 25 on the under. Remember if we lose we pay a 10% vig, just like in real life. 

This won't make you any money, but if you read closely you will see the early season trends we have identified. And if you remember our tips from last year, the number one tip we have for making money on football is identifying the early season trends that differ from the the trends at the end of last season. What do we mean? Last year we could have bought a Porsche (ok, a used one, but low mileage) on the money we made betting against everyone's darling team- The San Diego Chargers- at the beginning of the season. 

This year- a few quick thoughts- BET AGAINST DALLAS. Could we be any more clear? Also the Browns (which is a problem because the Brownies play the Cowpokes on opening day). Take the Dolphins under until you go broke or can't find enough places to store the cash.  Go with the Vikes and against the Eagles in the NFC. In the AFC we like the Jags, but we're not sure their QB is for real. Ditto the Brownies. The Chargers should start a lot faster than last year, and the Steelers have a good team but the hardest schedule in the league, so don't go near them. 

In order of our predicted finish:

AFC EAST:

NE Cheaters (somebody needs to stop them. How do they have such an easy schedule?); JETS (Mangini for real. Favre has a few good years left) ; Bills (Don't buy the hype, 7-9 again); Dolphins (Best 6-10 team in the NFL).

AFC West: Chargers (real deal), Broncos (Jay Cutler is the real deal, but O-line in flux), Raiders (Good coach, bad management), Chiefs (Worst team in football this year. Herm should have stayed in NY).

AFC North. Steelers (Perennial contenders-tough schedule may do them in); Brownies (Remember, they're Cleveland. They need to prove to us they can overcome their heritage); Ravens (Cam baby.); Bungles (Also the worst team in football this year. Last year for head coach Marvin Lewis.).

AFC South: Jaguars (QB suspect. Defense real deal); Colts!!! (Peyton is 32);  Titans (Vince Young has very good year and they might just surpass the Colts); Texans. 

JAGS and Cheaters in AFC Championship game.

NFC East. Giants (SB Champs); Cowpokes (Way overrated. Could fall to third); Skins; Eagles (Things won't be pretty in Philly this year. Load up on the cheese steaks. We like Pats over Genos)

NFC West: Cardinals !!!; Seahawks (the end has begun); Niners (going nowhere fast) ; Rams (ditto).

NFC North: Packers (Aaron Rodgers is the real deal) Vikes (need a QB); Lions (on the rise); Da Bears (da blues).

NFC South: Saints (Because the Bucs aren't good enough to contend) ; Bucs; Panthers (going nowhere fast); Falcons (woof woof). 

Packers and Saints in NFC Championship game.

ARE YOU READY FOR SOME

FOOTBALL? We are!  

THE SUICIDE POOL, YEAR II:

Remember the excitement of last year's suicide pool, won by your humble blogger Rumpole? We defeated CK deep into the season and we look forward to a rematch. Just shoot us an email and you are in. The rules are you need to pick one team, no point spread, to win each week, and once you use that team you cannot use it any longer for the rest of the year. So choose wisely and join in.  It's free, and unless you're anonymous like us, if you win  you get bragging rights, a Starbucks Card, and some sort of trophy suitable for display. 

OUR PREDICATIONS: 

Longtime and careful readers will remember we had another fantastic season last year, going something like 197-10 in our picks. Real careful readers will remember we were on fire for the first month. Our philosophy was and is to identify a trend against popular opinion and then bet the heck out of it. Last year it was that San Diego was way over rated and it paid off big time in the first 6 weeks or so. 

This year? We're working on a few theories, running complicated computer simulations and while we're not ready to release any information, lets just say we have a suspicion that the happiest moments of the upcoming season for Cowboys QB Tony Romo will be at home with Jessica Simpson and not on the football field. We think the Cowpokes may be headed for a big let down. Conversely we still like the Pack and (as much as it pains us to say it) the J..E...T...S  to rebound and have a good season. 

Can anyone tell us why the 18-0 New England Cheaters have one of the easiest schedules in the NFL this year? 

Some more quick thoughts- The Cleveland Browns are overrated until they show us otherwise. Avoid putting any rent money on the Brownies.  The Chargers who came on strong late in the season will win the AFC West by default. Every other team in the NFL's weakest division will probably have a losing record, and the Broncos may well implode into a Dolphins like season of misery and woe.  The NFC West is another disaster of a division and if Cardinal QB Matt Leinart can stay out of hot tubs with ASU  Co-eds long enough to practice, this may be the year the Cards break through and end Seattle's long dominance of the division.  

The division to watch is the NFC East, where at least on paper the Cowpokes and the Gints are legitimate SB contenders. The Redskins and the Eagles, while not legitimate contenders have the ability to force season splits in their series with the boyz from NY and Dallas. Every game in this division this year will be a good one. 

And finally our lovable losers, the Miami Dolphins. While we don't expect a winning season, 8-8 is not out of the realm of possibility. They won't make the playoffs, but Parcells has turned this team around. He builds from the bottom up,  spending high draft choices on men in the trenches. The O Line and D Line are solid, and if Ricky can "Run Ricky Run" this year, then the Fins will keep it close. Watch the under on these games, as a good D and a conservative offense will keep the Fins in close, low scoring games. 

Enjoy the weekend.