WSC

 

Success is not final

Failure is not fatal

It is the courage to continue that counts

SWING STATE PREDICTIONS

UPDATE: 

Ground Game: A good ground game to get out the vote can move the needle .5 to 1%.  Harris volunteers knocked on THREE MILLION DOORS in Pennsylvania this past weekend and ONE HUNDRED THOUSAND DOORS in Philadelphia election morning. Impressive. 

Speaking of PA-  There was a problem this morning with the voter machines in Escambia County, PA. The supervisor of elections stepped in (after conferencing with Kim Jung Un). The votes are being preserved and the type of voting changed and the polls in that county, which trends Republican, will be kept open until TEN PM, which means Pennsylvania cannot be called until after 10 PM tonight (assuming Venezuela finishes with their access of the voting data in the machines by then). 

There was also a problem in a Wisconsin county which will delay reporting until around Midnight Eastern Standard Time. 

What all this means is a long night. 

Rumors- turnout is high. Turnout for women is off the charts high. Trump called them all B#tches who belong in the kitchen. We are feeling marginally better about PA after exit polls are showing the number one concern of voters was not immigration or the economy but "preservation of democracy" which is quite revealing. 

First polls close at 7pm and then 730 and then we are off to the races. Check back often for breaking news.  

Here's what we see.

First, the shock is that over the weekend a very well respected Iowa pollster published a poll  showing Harris in the lead in Iowa of all places. If those six electoral votes are in play, then things become better for Harris, but not a lot. 

Here are our toss up states:  Nevada (6); Iowa (6); Wisconsin (10); Michigan (15); Pennsylvania(19); Georgia(16); North Carolina(16) and New Mexico (5). 

With those as toss ups,  and counting the safe states for each candidate (like California for Harris and Texas for Trump) Trump leads 246-205. 

If we lean Wisconsin and Michigan to Harris and Iowa and Pennsylvania to Trump, its 265-230 Trump, and he is five votes away from regaining the presidency. 

If we then add Nevada for Harris, New Mexico for Trump, and Georgia and North Carolina for Harris Trump wins 270-268. 

So it all comes down to Pennsylvania unless Harris wins New Mexico.  Based on polling showing that people making up their minds in the last week have broken 60-40 Harris, and that people voting on the economy are 52-48 Trump - which is a drastic change from when Biden was running and it was 60-40- Harris has closed the gap. \

Which means it comes down to New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina. We are fairly confident Harris wins Georgia and North Carolina.   

Which means if she take New Mexico, she wins 273-265. If she pulls out Pennsylvania and wins North Carolina and/or Georgia, its game over. 

But we really don't have confidence she will win New Mexico or Pennsylvania.  It’s verrrrrrrry close. 

And consider this- Maine splits it two electoral votes- we have both going to Harris, but Trump can split the state. Nebraska also splits its three votes and we have Trump winning two of three. If he could take the third vote and one from Maine, that's four of the five he needs based on the scenario where he is at 265. 

Trump has the clearer path to the presidency assuming he takes Pennsylvania. He can lose Georgia and North Carolina and still win because he is taking back Arizona which he lost in 2020. 

Harris has momentum. And she needs to hope that the female vote in Nevada, Pennsylvania and New Mexico were undercounted in polling data. If that is the case, this will not be close and we can move on to the riots,  meritless lawsuits, and claims that dead dictators rigged voting machines. 

Here is what Iowa means to us. Pollsters are picking up momentum for her. If that translates beyond Iowa, whoopee! If not, it doesn’t mean a whole lot. 

If the recent (non-Iowa)  polls got it right, then this thing- and perhaps American Democracy- is right on the edge of a precipice staring into a bleak dark hole of fascism and anti-intellectualism.

The world is watching. 

We will have a post later today about American Exceptionalism.   

NFL Week 8 2024

 Before we make you some money, don’t forget to read our election special on Monday. Rumpole will tell you who is going to win every swing state with a few surprises.  And if you know who is going to win the swing states you will know who will be POTUS 47. And if you want a hint, Jackie Roosevelt Robinson who had some notable firsts broke the MLB color line in ….1947 when he won the rookie of the year. He played …wait for it… 47 games with the Montreal Monarchs before playing for the Dodgers that year. 

Very quickly 

Commanders +4 in New Jersey as maybe we see Daniel Jones final game as a Giant. 

Tampa with 9 points at KC.  And maybe even the money line +375. We smell an upset like xxxxxxx in Georgia. 

Bo Nix over 219 passing against the Ravens. 

Kinda like the under 52 Cowpokes at Atlanta sort of the way we like the under 250 electoral votes for XXXXX. Speaking of unders, thank you Ohio State / Penn State going under yesterday and winning back all the money we lost on the Yankees  

Josh Allen over 243 yards passing and Tua under 242. In fact we are going to parlay that sucker.  

Maybe more later after we get out of MDC Brooklyn   Yuck  🤢 

INFINITE JUDGE THEOREM

 Two Australians have disproven the well-known theorem that given an infinite amount of time, a monkey pressing keys on a keyboard would eventually write the complete works of Shakespeare. 

A peer reviewed study now has proven that the time it would take for the monkey to replicate the works of Shakespeare would exceed the lifespan of our universe. 

Even enlarging the theorem to include the total current chimp population of 200,000 and assuming they type one key per second, there would still not be enough time for any of them to type out the works of the Bard. 

The work that has disproved the theorem is based on the current assumption that the universe continues to expand until it becomes a vast cold dark wasteland where nothing exists with the exception of a few Maga supporters in Oklahoma who don't believe in the universe because they cannot see all of it. 

The work disproving the Monkey Theorem brings us to ponder this as we head into the weekend: 

What are the chances a finite number of Miami Judges, pounding on a keyboard, grant a motion to suppress based on the fourth amendment before the universe cools and dies? 

The answer, like the Monkey Theorem, appears unsurprisingly grim. 

Have a good weekend. 

Here is the article on the Monkey Theorem. 

DEFENSE MATTERS

 The Los Angeles Dodgers are the 2024 World Champions of Baseball.

Did you know that the Dodgers name goes back to when they were the Brooklyn Dodgers and patrons had to "dodge" trolley cars on the way into the ballpark in Brooklyn? 

Defense wins - championships and trials. 

In the fifth inning Wednesday night the Yankees were up 5-0 when the Dodgers came to bat. The end was near. The better baseball team was about to show why they are better and the worse team was about to unequivocally show why they were the inferior team.  

The Yankees made a string of errors that a little league baseball should not make. 

Pitcher Gerritt Cole, pitching the game of his life, failed to cover first base on a grounder to first, allowing the Dodgers to score and keep the inning alive. Yankee superstar Aaron Judge, who  in the first inning broke out of his slump and hit a massive home run, and later made a spectacular catch in center field, allowed a routine fly ball to go over his head in the fifth inning. No Willie Mays he.  Somewhere Vic Wertz is smiling. 

Here is the whole firth inning in its inglorious Yankee ineptitude. 

Defense wins championships. 

The Yankees have superstar hitters and pitchers. But they do not have a team of fundamentally sound baseball players. And it showed in this series. 

The better team won. 

How many days until pitchers and catchers report? 

ON AN REGJB NOTE: 

What's the deal with election day next week? 

Trials occurring? 

Riot gear required? 

TIME TO REMEMBER

 There are certain people who spent their life in our little corner of the legal world, and we do well to remember them when they are gone. 

Thus, we remember on 10/28/2024 the passing of REGJB legendary Judge Gerald Klein, who passed away on this date in 2012. 

For you young judges, prosecutors, PDs, and REGJB staff members, you would do well to ask a colleague about "Fast Gerry."

Here's our original post. 

Here's a report on his passing. 

THE POLLS ARE OPEN - ELECTION CENTRAL - COUNTY COURT - RUNOFF

THE CAPTAIN REPORTS:

ELECTION CENTRAL - COUNTY COURT - RUNOFF

The polls open today for EARLY VOTING. Over the next 14 days, you can cast your ballot at any of the 33 locations open daily from 7am until 7pm. To find a polling location, you can go to this link.  If you pass on this opportunity, you must have ordered your Absentee ballot from the Department of Elections, or, you will need to show up to your own precinct on Election Day, Tuesday, November 5, 2024.

The only judicial race facing voters in Miami-Dade County is a runoff in County Court.

Group 29 (Judge Myriam Lehr retiring)

Christopher Benjamin v. Alina Salcines Restrepo

In the August primary, this was a three-person race. Christopher Benjamin received the most votes garnering 98,108 (39%) of the 253,299 votes cast. Alina Salcines Restrepo received 91,044 (36%). Former Judge Scott Janowitz was eliminated from the three-person race after collecting 64,147 (25%).

Christopher Benjamin has been a member of The Florida Bar for 22 years. He is Of Counsel with International Law Partners, LLP., and a panelist with the ADR firm of Salmon & Dulberg. He works in the areas of general litigation and serves as an arbitrator, mediator, and special magistrate. He has been a certified mediator and arbitrator for 15 years and in 2010 he was appointed as a Hearing Officer in the 11th Judicial Circuit’s Traffic Division where he served until 2020. In 2020 (and again in 2022), he was elected to the Florida House of Representatives to represent the people of  District 107.

Benjamin has raised $111,096. Benjamin did not loan his campaign any money. Of note, in his Financial Disclosure, Benjamin lists his Net Worth at NEGATIVE -$292,937.

Alina Salcines Restrepo has been a member of The Florida Bar for 24 years. She has worked in a law firm with her brother who is also a lawyer and she has been a solo practitioner as well. She concentrates her practice in the areas of real estate, probate, criminal, civil, traffic, estate planning, and bankruptcy law.

Salcines Restrepo has raised only $35,014, but she has added $40,000 to her campaign in the form of a loan. She lists her Net Worth at $1,170,733.

The winner earns a six-year term and an annual salary of $186,034.

IN OTHER ELECTION NEWS .....

It looks like a dead heat heading into the final two weeks of the presidential campaign. Seven states will decide the election between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada are the only states polling too close to call. In Florida, Rick Scott continues to hold a healthy lead in the polls over his opponent, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. 

What are your predictions on the outcome of the Presidential race? Regardless of who is declared the winner, will there be endless court battles in some of these key states? Will any of those cases end up before SCOTUS?

CAPTAIN OUT .......

Captain4Justice@gmail.com