...IN OCTOBER

MONDAY NIGHT GET EVEN GAME 

 This is one of those weeks we need a big get even game or it will be back to wine in those cardboard containers and the Five Guys Lettuce Wrap Burger instead of the filet and king crab.  

Saints - 1.5. The o/u is a tough 48.5 as we saw when our 49ers over pick just fell short.  48.5 requires a combined 7 TDs and that's above average. Better we like our combo of over 220 passing yards for each of the QBs 

Also over 6.5 Yanks at Rays. We like the Yanks but we don't want to lay the 1.5 runs, but other than the first game against the Rays when they were shut down 1-0, they are pretty reliable in hitting the over. 

Well, here it is! What legal nerds the world over wait for. 

The First Monday in October, when the US Supreme Court (motto: "Trump does what he wants and who are we to stop him?") meets for the new session, and county and circuit judges throughout Florida dream their DeSantis Drone dreams: "If I just deny all the defense motions and tell counsel that it's up to the legislature to change the law, I'm sure to catch the eye of the governor and president..."*sigh*

Not gonna mess with you know who

Do you ever wonder why jurists who believe in originalism use computers to do research and write their opinions? If originalism is the right way to interpret the Constitution, then why isn't it the right way to live their lives?

The article is behind a paywall, but Justice Alito has a piece in the Wall Street Journal about originalism, which is sort of weird because the framers didn't read the WSJ. Other than that glaring inconsistency, the article is worth a read- especially if you're having trouble sleeping if all your football picks bombed this weekend like ours did. 

Anyway, new week and new Supreme Court term. Enjoy. 

WEEK FOUR NFL 2026

 Bad beat story. After cashing with the Georgia Bulldogs the first three weeks of the season we naturally took them -25.5 over Vandy Saturday.  Up 38-14 late in the fourth quarter,  and us needing one more Georgia Bulldog score to cover, a Georgia RB broke free and was running towards the endzone when he was brought down from behind at the 11. With less than a minute left Georgia kneeled twice and took the win while Rumpole took the loss. 

Time to win that back today. 

We start with a prop bet. The Giants have a weak passing game. The visiting Cardinals have a weak run defense. That equals to a prop bet on Giant RB Cam Scatebo +170 over 70 yards. 

We loved the over 47 in the Broncos at 49ers game this week. Alas, the number has climbed to 48.5, which we could also get behind, if we hadn't locked in the lower number earlier this week,

We do not often post a MNF pick this far in advance. But we are very happy to jump on New Orleans at home -2.5 over the not for real Atlanta Falcons     

Not much we love this week. 

Don't forget to geek-out tomorrow with the first Monday in October, 

MISTAKES AND WHAT IS COMING

 We all make mistakes. Your blogger has made 7 this year. Last year- 9. 

Senator Eric Schmitt (Clown, Missouri) made one on national TV during the testimony of former DOJ prosecutor Jack Smith.  Schmitt was trying to draw a connection between Smith and Atlanta prosecutor Fanni Willis, who indicted Trump.  Asked directly if he had met her, Smith denied it.  Ah, thought Schmitt, “I’m fixing to spring mah trap.” He then asked Smith if he had been to an Atlanta Hawks game on February 3,2024.  Puzzled, Smith thought for a moment and then denied it  “Now ah got em!” Schmitt thought to himself.  He told Smith he had his texts  and Smith and his team talked about Smith attending the Hawks game.  The Senator told Smith he had committed perjury and that he would be remembered as a “dirtbag”.   Visions of congressman Nixon and communist spies and microfilm in a pumpkin patch which propelled Nixon to the Senate and then the Vice Presidency danced in Schmidtt’s small brain.  

Just one teeny tiny problem.  The Senator is apparently no sports fan.  Quick research by senate staffers and media during the hearing showed that on February 3, 2024 Iowa women’s basketball team played Maryland.   The failing NY Times quickly found a picture of Mr Smith at the game.  Atlanta has the Hawks- an NBA team.  Iowa has the Hawkeyes and on that night Smith went to the game to see  Caitlin Clark the women’s college phenom.  No perjury.  No Nixon like advancement to becoming Vice President.  Just a doofus with his foot in his mouth and no Hawkeye  eyesight.  The Senator quickly left the hearing and was quoted muttering “he’s still a dirtbag.”  

Monday is a big day. Why? Legal nerds the world over will quickly shout that It’s the First Monday in October.  And what does that mean? Maybe a robed reader knows  

OVERREACTION MONDAY

 It is overreaction Monday, time to overreact about last week's events...Or Not. 

The Chinese came to the White House last weekend and were served Mexican take-out. Overreaction? What's your Miami go-to Mex take out? Taco Rico on US1 for us. 

The first-floor cafe at the hollowed-out REGJB remains closed. It used to be the place to schmooze and network and find your judge and prosecutor sharing a colada and strike a plea. Now, we barely talk -rejecting plea offers by text. The future of our (somewhat) beloved criminal courthouse looks bleak. Overreaction or a fair comment on current events? 

The Straits of Hormuz remain closed. The war drags on. Republicans are going to pay the price in the midterm elections. Overreaction or just the lay of the political landscape? 

The Dolphins lost again. Their future is as bleak or bleaker than the REGJB. Overreaction because the Fins hung tough with KC for most of four quarters, or just recognizing another several years of Miami losing football? 

But your Miami Hurricanes are looking good. Overreaction because their schedule has been weakish?

High bond rates are threating stock equities. Overreaction because the market has mostly shrugged off the high rates, or just recognizing what Wall Street has not come to terms with yet?

The Nor'easter slammed the north-east coast of the US. Overreaction because this was no Hurricane Sandy or fair comment because lots of towns are flooded with no electricity. 

Got a topic for overreaction Monday? Post it. 

Enjoy the week in Miami where we assure you it is much drier than where we are. 

WEEK THREE FOOTBALL AND BEARS 2026

UPDATE- SURVIVOR POSTED BELOW  And we had a very profitable $unday with our picks. 

We are going to post our football picks early this weekend as an intensifying Nor'easter has us mildly concerned about internet access Sunday. But before football, Fat Bears! 

Yes, it's the Fat Bears of Katmai National Park, Alaska, and our all time favourite nature cam- the cam of the bears at the falls catching salmon swimming upstream as they put on weight and prepare for winter. No vegan diets here, as these big bruins add weight until they can't fit in their lululemons.  And every year thousands of fans of the chunky salmon chasers vote for the politically incorrect, but coveted title of Fat Bear. 🐻 And this year, amongst the favourites, we have some nepo-bear-baby- contenders!

89 Backpack is considered a "gentleman bear" who doesn't fight for space at the falls, but packs away the salmon and got his name from hanging on his mom Holly's back as a cub as she wadded across the falls and rivers. He's a nepo-baby, as his mom is a prior Fat Bear Chunky Champ.

32 Chunk is a big fella- over 1,200 pounds and back to defend his 2024 title. Go Chunk Go!

428 Studious is another nepo-baby contender. Her mom 128 Grazer is a former champ,  and this big gal got her name from the way as a cub she carefully studied her mom's hunting techniques. 

164 Bucky is a young up-and-comer, but he wants a win in the worst way, challenging other, older bears for the best feeding spots. The young buck can feel a Fat win coming. 

May the fattest bear win!  

PICKS

Because we are posting Saturday, we can share a team that is currently funding our lifestyle, allowing us to order the scoop of caviar on the filet and lobster tail at La Tete d'Or By Daniel.  (don't try getting a resy for the rest of the year unless, like us, you know someone). 

And that team is the Georgia Bulldogs. We had them -25 over Arkansas last week, and it was no sweat y'all (as they say in the Peach state).  Today we like them -14 over Oklahoma. 

The game of the day is Ole Miss at Florida.  Dolphin's fans take note- your next QB is slinging the rock for the Running Rebels. "With the first pick in the 2027 NFL Draft the Miami Dolphis select Max Pelham, Punter, South Dakota State Trinidad Chambliss, Quarterback, Ole Miss."   It will probably be Chambliss, but this being Miami don't count our Pelham.  Don't bet a lot here, but we loved Ole Miss's win over LSU last week, so roll with Ole Miss +4 at Florida.  This team and their QB have the type of moxie that took Indiana to the title last year (Indiana had an epic-two-year run that we were on early in 2025 that was legendary even for Rumpole. Ah, those were the days...)

SUNDAY 

Label us bandwagon jumpers.  The powerhouse New Orleans Saints 1-1 are home against the 2-0 Raiders. One team is for real, and one team is a bit lucky. Saints and the hottest QB in the league -3.  We didn't post it- but we had a big over bet here that hit- we lost on the pick we posted.  Go heavy on Saints next week to bounce back. 

Chiefs -63 at Miami. Nuff said.  If you're going, the fun is in player props.

Vikes -1 at Tampa. Inside scoop- Tampa QB Mayfield was battling a nasty cold this week. Minny's D coordinator Brian Flores (best D coordinator in the league and former Fins coach) has his Defense blitzing as they walk off the bus- something like 92% of the time last week. And now a QB with sniffles? We like the Vikes here.  NICE WIN FOR US

Speaking of Bears, we will take Chicago as a home bear +5 over the Eagles.  CANCEL THIS FOR MNF- no idea who is playing QB for Chicago. 

Bengals -3.5 at Pittsburgh.  Wanna see a team in disarray that doesn't play in Broward County? That's the Steelers. Their QB belongs at a South Florida retirement community. He can't run, move, and the Steelers can't protect him. LOSS- very surprising. 

Titans at Giants under 5 (lol). The O/U is 38. Lots of sharpies are saying the Giants -2.5 are the pick because their coach will right the ship and Jameis Winston has had a full week of practice.  We aren't sold. Maybe a 10-10 tie? Take the under.  UNDER WAS A WIN

Ravens at Cowboys in Brazil. The story here is the field, which, to use a technical term- sucks. Let's just hope no one gets injured.  No idea on this other than Ravens RB Henry to score a TD, which he always does.  THAT WAS A WIN

Just where won't the NFL take money to play a game? Maybe in 2030 the Fins will travel to Pyongyang and play a game before the Dear Leader.  Giants-Rams in Kuala Lumpur? Texans-Bears at Midway (the island in the Pacific, not the airport in Illinois).  And how about Seattle-Minnesota in Hialeah? Talk about exotic locales! 

Enjoy the weekend. We are trying to stay dry. 

SURVIVOR Saw Fake Freddy fall with Pack last week and most players hop on KC whose win against the Fins in Miami was a lot closer for much of the game than the final score indicates. On we go!

FDC SAYS FU

 On October 29, 1975, President Gerald R Ford announced that he would not have the federal government bailout a NYC heading for bankruptcy. 

The next day the NY Daily News ran with one of the most famous headlines of all time: Ford To City: Drop Dead.  Ford went on to lose the 1976 Presidential election to James Earl Carter, and lost NY to Carter in the process at a time when Republicans won NY- Ford's VP was Nelson Aldrich Rockefeller, a former four-term governor of NY and someone with a mite bit of influence in New York State. 

Which brings us to the events of the last day or so when FDC announced that they will no longer honor email requests from defense attorneys to bring their clients to the FDC visitation room. In other words- 

                                       FDC to Miami Lawyers- FU

Now truth be told, emailing FDC (Motto: We are the government, we are not here to help) to have a client brought down for visitation was always a hit or miss proposition. It had to be done on the day of the visit. It had to have exact information and be accompanied by a letter on law firm letter head.  In the finest tradition of the Miami Dade Clerk's office, attach the letter as a Word document, and they would ignore it and tell you they only read PDFs. Attach a PDF and they would tell you they only read Word documents. Send both a Word document and a PDF, and they would say they only read WordPerfect documents.  Send the letter in every available format and they would respond that they only read letters sent via US mail and postmarked on the day you want to see the client as long as a careful check did not reveal that you ever voted by mail or had ever been to Canada. 

Contacted for a comment, an FDC spokesperson sneered "What do you think our job is? To make your life easy? If it helps the defense, it is an offense; that's what we like to say around here."

Federal practitioners will agree that FDC was most likely the last pre-trial facility in the nation to allow electronics in the facility to review discovery without a notarized letter from the President and the congressperson in the district where the lawyer's office was. It was only after the jail in Pyongyang North Korea allowed defense attorneys to bring in laptops and iPads to review evidence with their client the day before they were executed that FDC Miami grudgingly agreed to allow attorneys to bring in electronic devices after filling out three forms at the window including the date of birth and social security number of the salesperson who sold the device. 

And now, for reasons of national security which may or may not relate to the new White House Ballroom and the failed immigration policies of the Biden Administration, lawyers will have to do what FDC loves making us do- WAIT. 

NE

 We left the Magic City for many reasons, one of which was to avoid the soul-sucking storms and the endless loops of video on channel 7 showing long lines at Home Depot and empty shelves at supermarkets while reporters try and control the hysteria in their voices: The rain has started here in Hialeah and most gas stations are out of gas. With winds whipping at eight to ten miles per hour experts are now saying it's the time to hunker down. We go now to a live report in Miami Gardens where Anna Sanchez Castro-Lopez is reporting that McDonalds is limiting purchases to ten burgers and fries per customer as people prepare to go hungry...

And now here in the Northeast we are facing a Nor'easter hitting this weekend. The reporting is just not the same:  The storm is expected to hit coastal regions this weekend from Massachusetts to Long Island. There will be wind and rain and both the Yankees and Mets are expected to announce moving their games. Broadway shows for Saturday may be canceled, alternate side of the street parking will be suspended as of Friday, and bodegas are selling lots of chopped cheese sandwiches. In other news the UN is in town, the president threatened to bomb Belgium unless they lower the price of his favorite chocolate; he ordered the Commerce Department to rename the East River the Trump Tower Canal, and slapped a 90% tariff on all hockey pucks and goalie masks made in Canada in advance of the start of the National Hockey League. In return Canadian Prime Minster issued a statement 'The fault dear Brutus lies not in our stars but in ourselves that we are underlings.'  causing the white house to issue a statement that they applaud the Canadian Prime Minister quoting the great American writer Mark Twain. *

Speaking of literature:  One of the world's great writers Annie Dillard passed away this week. She was a master of sentences with a style uniquely her own. You should order some of her books while buying that organic dandruff shampoo that has gone viral on Amazon. Dillard wrote thirteen books, won a Pulitzer Prize and a National Humanities Award during the Obama administration when we had people in power who actually read and understood literature. 

Some examples of her sentences:

The sun was going. The world was wrong...This color has never been seen on earth. The hues were metallic; their finish was matte. Teaching a Stone to Talk.

 About the streets of Pittsburgh: The old cobblestones were pale humpy ovals like loaves.

And finally: Seeing a partial eclipse bears the same relation to seeing a total eclipse as kissing a man does to marrying him, or flying in an airplane does to falling out of an airplane. Although the one experience precedes the other, it in no ways prepares you for it,

Go try and find something on an IG reel that hits the way the last line of that paragraph does. Go ahead, try. You never will. 

But hey, keep scrolling to find that sandwich on 8th street going viral. 

 Dolphins return home this week after a disastrous two-week road trip.  The KC Chiefs are in town with their resurgent running game to complement their QB who is decent. The line is KC -30. 

And finally, Rumpole's fav stock Nvidia (along with Apple) is undervalued. It's up 22% this year while the overall average for chip stocks is up 77%. The shares currently trade at 17 times forward earning, less than its five-year average. And there is this: historically stocks gain nearly 15% after a fed rate hike like we had last week, as opposed to a 9% increase after a rate cut. Wait! You are saying. Stocks are supposed to fall after rate hikes. Initially, they do. But if you think about it, the numbers make sense. Rate hikes reflect a backward looking response to economic strengths which then are reflected in the next quarters' numbers, which causes the market to rise. What we are worrying about- the breadth. It's narrow. But fear not, we are keeping an eye on things for you. 

Speaking of keeping an eye on things: Who had downloaded MUSE? It's quite interesting.  

* For our robed readers and those raised on tik tok and IG and not books, the quote is actually from Shakespeare and our attribution to the white house misidentifying it is an example of irony and humor ridiculing the lack of intellect in those who currently speak for our country. 

21ST DAY OF SEPTEMBER

UPDATE 1) Survivor pool results posted in Sunday's post. 

2) Court's closed Monday. See below ...

 Do you remember? We do.  

Perfect example of why our generation has the best music.  Do not even consider for a moment challenging that, as we will swamp you. And if you go to citing ol' whazzahernane, you have no chance. 

COURT'S ARE CLOSED MONDAY 

Leviticus 16:30 – “For on this day atonement will be made for you, to cleanse you. Then, before the Lord, you will be clean from all your sins.”

Leviticus 23:27-28 – “Now on the tenth day of this seventh month is the Day of Atonement. It shall be for you a time of holy convocation, and you shall afflict yourselves and present a food offering to the Lord.” 

You should hear us do talk-ups. We hit the post every time. We would have been an amazing DJ.