Thursday, May 08, 2008

CLINTON'S NUMBERS

Before we get to the topic today, once again those wild and crazy lawyers North Of The Border intrude upon our thoughts. Just when you were sure things could not get any crazier in "fun city" comes this little gem: Criminal Defense attorney Gary Ostrow flew to Tallahassee on May 2 to file papers to challenge incumbant Public Defender Howard Finklestein. But before he could get out of town, Ostrow managed to get himself ARRESTED FOR POSSESSION OF COCAINE. That's right- The Clerk's office before noon, and the County Jail by midnight. What a wild campaign ride indeed. The Sun Sentinel has all the wacky details
HERE.

Now on with the show.


Hillary Clinton will not drop out of the race for the democratic nomination, and Rumpole is going to tell you why certain numbers tell the story.

76 and 80. If John McCain wins the presidency, he will be 76 when he runs for reelection and we would have to elect a president who will serve when he is 80 years old. That makes his reelection an unlikely scenario.

1992. When was the last time a party ran after holding the White House for 12 years? 1992. And despite winning a war, President Bush could not get reelected. You have to go back to Roosevelt/Truman to find a successor President from the same party (Truman) winning reelection (over Dewey, and by the way "Truman Beats Dewey" is just up in the Herald's Breaking News section right now.)

So if McCain getting reelected is unlikely, what is in Clinton's best interest if she cannot get nominated now? We propose that she intends to attack Obama until she has separated him from every last independent voter, older democratic female, and working class disaffected (read "white) male, thus handing the election to McCain and giving her the best chance to win in 2012.

2016. What does her getting the nomination as Vice President do for her? Not much. She would have to wait until 2016 to run again for President. Who were the last two sitting Vice Presidents to win the Presidency? George Herbert Walker Bush in 1988 and Martin Van Buren in 1837. And both of them served only one term.

The last Vice President to be elected to two terms was Richard Milhous Nixon and he was not a sitting Vice President when elected. The elections of Nixon and Ronald Regan also give hope to Clinton. They were elected and re-elected after having run for the Presidency and lost. Nixon lost the general election in 1960 and Regan lost his challenge to Ford for the Republican nomination in 1976. Nixon waited eight years before trying again and finally winning. The last person to get his party's nomination twice in a row after losing the first time was Adlai Stevenson who lost in 1952 and 1956. Stevenson ended up heroically staring down and cross examining Valerian Zorin for Kennedy at the UN during the Cuban Missile Crisis. The prospects of Obama getting the nomination twice in a row are dim. "He couldn't beat McCain in 2008" would be the analysis, "so lets give Clinton a shot now".

So if you are Hillary Clinton and have come so close to your dream of being elected President, and if you are willing to spend your personal fortune and make all the other sacrifices necessary to achieve your dream, what is the play here? Take second place on the ticket and watch it all slip away, or give the election to McCain so you can run and win in four years?

We think Clinton will not give up. We think she will fight right to the convention this summer, attacking Obama at every chance she gets. This is the only way we see her getting her chance to be President for eight years, even if it means starting four years from now.

See you in court, where not even a lowly county court candidate would give our political analytical skills the time of day.

20 comments:

Anonymous said...

What does all that have to do with David Ranck?

Anonymous said...

Gary Ostrow vote for me the candidate that can relate to being wrongly accused.

Anonymous said...

Only one problem with that analysis. Obama beats McCain.

Anonymous said...

just one more inane and insane move in the life that is gary ostrow.

this guy doesn't deserve a break.

Just pay the fine... said...

Judge Eig fined by the Elections Commission and appealed and lost.

http://www.fec.state.fl.us/Final%20Orders/2007/163.pdf

Just pay the fine.. said...

Judge Victoria del Pino fined by the election commission

http://www.fec.state.fl.us/Final%20Orders/2007/134.pdf

Anonymous said...

ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ

Anonymous said...

If Obama loses in '08, he can run again in '12. At that point, he will be a household name and politically seasoned. Meanwhile, Hillary will endure the wrath of her senate colleagues for her scorched earth policy.

Clinton isn't staying in to win, she staying in because she doesn't know the meaning of quit.

Anonymous said...

Bowties for Ben. Wear your bowtie next Saturday evening at the FACDL banquet.

Anonymous said...

10:37..........MAYBE, maybe not.

Regardless, still her best move since she's not looking for a cabinet seat. Obama is not helping himself lately. The GOP is going to make Hillary's attacks seem like spitballs. They have so much great material to use that they may yet pull it out.

Anonymous said...

Slow day....

Anonymous said...

Rumpole, have you been following the fiasco by Aventura police on the Boca mall killing suspect?

Based on an anonymous tip Aventura police stopped for questioning a man on the Aventura Mall who wore a floppy hat, sunglasses and a short pony tail, because the killer's composite sketch showed a man with a floppy hat, sunglasses and long pony tail, a description that can fit thousands of men in South Florida who want to avoid skin cancer. When the man refused to talk to the officers and "became belligerent", "cussed" and "yelled", he was arrested for disorderly conduct and resisting w/o. (Remember L.T. v. State?) They questioned him and put him in a line up for a victim who had escaped the killer. The victim was unable to identify him. Yet the Boca Raton police investigators still want to question him though they no longer consider him a person of interest.

On the day after the City of Miami approved $2.2 million in compensation for a wrongfully convicted man, the City of Aventura police detain and arrest an innocent man based only on general and clothing-style appearance.

Scary, huh?

Welcome to the People's Democratic National Socialist Republic of South Florida!

See the Herald articles here http://www.miamiherald.com/459/story/527255.html

http://www.miamiherald.com/548/story/526626.html

Anonymous said...

Didn't Finkelstein get busted for cocaine back in the day?

A Van Buren Boy said...

obama doesnt beat mccain. you read it here first.

Anonymous said...

Did Diaz ever get a jury?

Anonymous said...

Rumpole, if you going to be away from the blog, at least disable moderation.

Former Judge said...

Former Judge says:

Phil R. just did an amazing job on a case that i referred to him. He really goes the extra yard for his clients. I am thrilled to see a lawyer that has his compassion, dedication to seeing justice served and who cares more about his client's welfare than fees. I admire him so much...and what beautiful kids he makes!

Anonymous said...

Ket me guess "Former judge", when you say Phil R "cares more about his client's welfare than fees," you mean you referred him someone who had no money and thought you could get them a good free lawyer so you obliged?

Anonymous said...

Diaz got a jury and the State is having issues dealing with the DNA screw up at the MDPD lab.

Anonymous said...

Who was the DNA analyst?