It's on! Super Bowl Sunday. A day of eating nachos, drinking beer, and watching commercials with celebrities who never appear in commercials. Jay Leno and David Letterman and Oprah? They've done one. Snoop Dog? Yeah. Rumpole? Not yet.
The Captain has challenged us to a bet. The loser writes a check to the Innocence Project. It's on. But he needs to understand the bet. We have been proclaiming for a week to bet the Bengals +170 money line, which means no points (the Rams are favoured by 5). Instead, a $100 on the Bengals returns $170 when they win. It cost the Captain $200 when the Rams lose.
Now that that is out of the way, let's look at some fun prop bets before getting to the all-important coin toss:
The Over/Under is 48.5. The natural inclination is to bet over. Some of the top pro gamblers we know love the under. We do not have a strong feeling about this, but we are going with a small under bet.
Bengals RB Joe Mixon over 58.5 yards, -115 (bet 115 to win 100. Note every bet comes with a 10% vig, so the standard $100 bet always costs $110).
Bengals QB Joe Burrow rushing over 10.5 yards -120.
Rams WR Cooper Kupp (who was instrumental on Rumpole winning the REGJB fantasy football league this year) scoring a TD. -155. WIN
Joe Burrow scoring a rushing TD- you can get +4000 from the MGM app. Book it!
Successful two-point conversion. +250.
Will there be an overtime. We think not, but there have been so many this year in the playoffs that the +950 looks nice and juicy.
Super Bowl MVP- Joe Burrow +225.
Will Matthew Stafford Throw an INT? -165. We love this one. He has a tendency to do this in big games. WIN
Will Stafford throw a pick 6? This is a hard line to find. Anything over +750 is worth $100. Brooklyn Al, who took over the book for our dear departed friend 52nd Street Irwin tells us that he's had some calls on the prop, but no action because he won't offer more than +250 and won't book the bet over $500.
Will Bengals phenom rookie kicker Evan McPherson kick the game winning FG? +500. Will it be in OT? +1500. This could pay for our next Vegas excursion.
Also take Bengals over 1.5 field goals for the game at -150 and that Evan Ice will kick the longest field goal of the game +105.
Inside scoop you won't get on Mr. Markus's blog: Vegas sports book Circa has a reputation for booking exotic sports bet. They listed at 3000-1 odds that McPherson would run in for a TD on a fake field goal. And they had a taker at much more than the standard $100 bet. They booked the bet and now Circa has admitted that no matter what else takes place, if McPherson runs one in, they are "going to get clobbered". Based on that bet, Circa lowered the odds to 750-1. Three years ago, Circa had seven figures on their sheet with people taking at 200-1 the prop that there would be no TD in the super bowl. They sweated that one out until the 4th Quarter when the Cheaters finally scored one against the Rams in a 13-3 snoozer.
For quarter-by-quarter odds we like Rams -3 first half -105; Bengals +3 second half -115.
Will there be a second half lead change? Yes +130.
COIN TOSS: NEW ADDITION
The Rams are playing at home. But this is the year that the NFC is the visiting team so the Rams will call the toss. Will the Rams lose the toss, whatever they call? YES -105. WIN
There are some weather changes in LA that we are factoring into the final few million sims that our computer is running today, so for now we are holding off on what otherwise looks like a strong call for one of the two sides. Stay tuned.
An increase in the anticipated temperature at game time caused a slight fluctuation in our calculations but we now have the coin toss locked and ready to go. We will tweet our pick around 620 PM @justicebuilding
TAILS NEVER FAILS! loss
SB TRIVIA. We will be tweeting SB trivia @justicebuilding during the game. But try this one on for size. It's pretty hard. This hall of famer played in a super bowl next to another hall of famer who had a 4th quarter INT in a super bowl. The hall of famer who did not make the INT has THREE CONNECTIONS to this game. To get the player, you have to name the connections. For example, it could be he played on the Rams or Bengals in a prior super bowl, or against the Rams or Bengals, or played in LA, or played a super bowl in LA, or his name matches a current player, or his number somehow has an association with the game, or he is associated somehow with one of the teams. HINT- ONE OF THE ASSOCIATIONS IS THAT HE WAS NUMBER 56
Name a movie shot in Miami in which the Super Bowl is featured? Hint, a young Rumpole was an extra in this movie. BLACK SUNDAY
Name at least three teams who won a super bowl after losing a super bowl.
Name the president who called the locker room during a super bowl to suggest a play to the coach. NIXON CALLED WASHINGTON COACH GEORGE ALLEN
Name the group widely considered to be the worst super bowl half time show. UP WITH PEOPLE IN MIAMI
Which QB(s) has/have the second most SB appearances (TB12 has the most).
Which famous LA star was Joe Montana caught on camera and mike eyeing and talking about on the sidelines of a super bowl? JOHN CANDY
11 comments:
Black Sunday in 1976-and my father took a very young me to Super Bowl V in the Orange Bowl in 1971.
Losers who became winners. Oakland, KC, Denver, Washington, Dallas, Miami. Nixon called in a play. I think Stauback is second with five appearances but that is a hunch
Black Sunday
Jim Kelly
Black Sunday is correct. Jim Kelly, along with Terry Bradshaw, Peyton Manning, Roger Staubach and Earl Morrall, Joe Montana, and Frank Reich with 4 SB appearances are all in THIRD PLACE. One is in second.
Losers who became winners- I think you have them all. The Bengals have a chance to join that group today.
Check @justicebulding on twitter for more
Classic The Ren A Venue SB menu from years ago. Wagu beef sliders topped with caviar and served with truffle potato fries and a mug of homemade root beer. Wagu beef king hot dogs topped with wagu beef chili and cole slaw. Wagu short rib ravioli with a light cream and garlic sauce served with homemade cheesy bread and flash fried Brussell sprouts and a buffalo fried head of cauliflower. Cauliflower crust brick oven pizza margherita pizzas, Ren Blondies, homemade mint ice cream milkshakes or sundaes and warm chocolate chip "pizza cookies".
$220 all you can eat buffet starting 30 min before kickoff was a great value.
I am going straight off memory after a few too many martinis but I think Staubach played in 5: colts, dolphins, Steelers twice, and Denver
Roger played in 4. See my above comment. Someone played in 5, He never played against the colts in the SB- from memory
Answer to the Joe Montana trivia Q- he was pointing and talking about seeing John Candy in the stands during a super bowl
Elway, won the last two after losing his first three
CORRECT John Elway is in second place with 5 SB appearances
You can predict the winner of any sporting match -- MONEY. Money is always the winner. The bookies usually don't care who wins or loses, but they always have the advantage.
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