Green Bay hosts the Seahawks today in the early game while the Jaguars travel to New England to play the 135-0 Cheaters.
Both lines have moved since the opening and that merits discussion.
The Packer/Seahawk game opened at GB-8.5 and it is now GB-7.5. Traditionally you see this occur in the second round of the playoffs when the winning wild card team, that played the following week, picks up support from the fans who watched them win, as opposed to the division winner (Green Bay) that was off.
Give the points here. This is our best bet of the week. The Packers -7.5 all the way. There may be some questions about this Green Bay team. They have to prove they have a legitimate running game and can beat Dallas which handled them pretty well earlier in the season. But for today they play a Seattle team that has just never clicked on all cylinders all season.
The over under is 40 and we say stay away. This game could be a 35-20 rout, or a 27-10 rout. Farve will show up- of that we have no doubt. But we can't say the same for the Seahawk defense.
The Cheaters/Jaguars line has also moved, but the other way. The Cheaters opened as 11 point favorites, and the line has moved to -13.5 as the public hops on the undefeated bandwagon.
The over/under line has also moved from 48 to 50. We think the play here is under 50. Defense has a way of asserting itself in playoff games in January in the north east. Don't think for one second that the Cheaters don't have a running game. They do. And while they're far from conservative, we think if they get a 10 point lead they just may try and sit on it.
The question is whether Jax can take a play from the Ravens and to a lesser extent the Colts and turn this game into a one or two fourth quarter possession game. We think they can. Jacksonville is well coached and they have a plan and they do a pretty go job dictating the flow of the game. Take the 13.5 points but lightly. And if you really want to have fun, the you can get 6-1 on your money by taking Jax without your points.
We will have more to say on this tomorrow, but early on we like Dallas and the Colts.