Good Sunday morning! Before we begin, there is an excellent comment in the previous post by someone who is well versed in the procedures of what occurs when a pregnant inmate gives birth while in custody. We are proud that we have such a diverse group of readers.
Week 4 presents as every week does, some problems and some opportunities. What we remind our readers who play along with us, is the topic we have often discussed on this blog: the regression to the mean. In plain english, what this means for those who wager a bob or two on the games, is that 95% of the teams in the NFL are neither as good as they seemed the week before, or as bad.
We are 7-4 for the season and plus 905.
Dolphins vs. Cheaters. We've been running the metrics on this game all week, and some surprising numbers jump out: teams that pass with play action on the cheaters' defense are 16-19 for almost 200 yards and 3 TDs. Obversely, pretty boy QB is 17-20 for almost 200 yards and 2 tds when passing out of the shotgun. Meaning: the Fins have the better defense, but can they run with the cheaters? We'll make a pick on Monday. The game is MNF in Miami.
Eagles vs Redskins. Gonna ride this Vick train until it crashes. Eagles -5.5 for 300.
Cheesesteaks. Long time and careful blog readers will remember our fondness for Pat's Cheesesteaks and not Geno's. Any Philly guy knows they are both right across the street from each other. Of course we take our cheesesteaks "wit".
UPDATE: It's pouring rain in Cincy. Cancel the pick . Browns at Bengals. Something we've seen in examining statistics leads us to take the over for the second straight week in a Browns game. Last week we shocked the betting community by picking the over in the Browns/Ravens matchup. When we checked with 52nd street in Vegas, where he helps set lines for a sportsbook, Irving told us that the books were way out on the under- meaning they had a lot more money bet on the under than the over and were facing a substantial loss if the game went under. When I asked him why they weren't moving the line down to attract over bettors he just chuckled. The game went over and they made a pretty penny. (remember a book's goal is to have the same amount bet on each side so they risk nothing and just rake in the ten points on the losers).
Over 37 Browns/Bengals for 200 Pennington's.
Regressing to the mean: Giants(-3) over Bears, Houston over Oakland (+3) ,
Seattle over St Louis (+1.5). These are not official picks. We're merely putting these out there to se if our theory holds.
Update: if you read DOM's blog, you know he lost his cell phone on a flight back from NY (really David, it's time for NetJets.)
Well, we know someone who found it. Tomorrow: "The surprising phone numbers in David's Phone." Only on the JB blog.