This is the website you should be checking every day:
IHME: measuring what matters.
THE BAD NEWS:
Compared to licensed capacity and average annual occupancy rates, excess demand from COVID-19 at the peak of the pandemic in the second week of April is predicted to be 64,175 (95% UI 7,977 to 251,059) total beds and 17,309 ICU beds. At the peak of the pandemic, ventilator use is predicted to be 19,481. The date of peak excess demand by state varies from the second week of April through May. We estimate that there will be a total of 81,114 deaths (95% UI 38,242 to 162,106) from COVID-19 over the next 4 months in the US. Deaths from COVID-19 are estimated to drop below 10 deaths per day between May 31 and June 6.
(By the way, for those of you asking us how to time the market- see above. The good news of the decreasing death rate will fuel a roar of liquidity that is now on the sidelines).
THE GOOD NEWS FOR FLORIDA
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
33days
May 3, 2020
Resources needed for COVID patients on peak date
All beds needed
16,861beds
All beds available
20,184beds
Bed Shortage
0beds
ICU beds needed
2,538beds
ICU beds available
1,695beds
ICU Bed Shortage
843beds
Invasive ventilators needed
2,029ventilators
WHAT THIS MEANS: STAY INSIDE STAY INSIDE STAY INSIDE
One Month to peak in Florida. NOW IS THE TIME TO PRACTICE SOCIAL DISTANCING.
Use Instacart. Winn Dixie has a program to shop for seniors. Go for walks but stay away from crowds. We can continue to flatten the curve in Florida if we just hang in there.
In the darkest days of the Battle of Britain, Winston Spencer Churchill would walk though the rubble of the bombing, cigar jutting out defiantly and say "we can take it". His people would spend the night in the Underground, sleeping on makeshift beds, comforting children. But Churchill knew the character of the British people. They could take it. And they did. And that small Island Nation stood alone in the darkest of times, and they saved the world.
We can take it. There are no Churchills right now. No man or woman meeting the moment. But we can take it. We can stay inside, donate to charities to help those who need it, and we can take it for another two months and beat this virus.
Stay inside. Stay safe. We can take it.
10 comments:
Thank you 10:01am.
Excellent analysis of the result of our life styles and economy of the past 3 decades. I agree with you. In many ways, it breaks my heart. I was raised with parents who told us that “if you can dream it - you can achieve it.”
“Set your goals and dreams - and America will let you accomplish it with hard work.” Our reward was a beautiful family, a gorgeous home, new cars, Rolex watches and to be able to order anything on the menu of life. No more.
All of us are now gun shy. We have seen it all - from 9/11, the internet bubble, the mortgage debacle, increased tax burdens, rising education costs, unprecedented debt, stock roller coasters, no more vacation homes ... and now a plague.
Maybe ... the worst is yet to come. We find out the the capital markets are manipulated ponzi schemes that potentially could go to zero - while hedge fund manipulaters suck out our retirement savings and pensions.
Maybe ... global warming will cover out homes and communities with 10 feet of water?
Maybe ... a mutated antiviral resistant monkey virus comes next as a global pandemic and kills millions. The Bible is replete with plagues wiping out the earths population centers. Why couldn’t it happen.
There is so much hatred, jealousy and division - not only between countries - but between religions, ethnicities, politicians, male female, haves and have nots, etc. It’s getting worse.
What will save us:
- Kindness toward all
- charismatic younger leaders who inspire us
- forgiveness
- political parties that bring their ideations forward to current times.
- rewriting out Constitution to make it relevant to humanity in 2020.
- outlawing lobbying and corrupt politicians
- campaign contributions only from public governmental funds not tied to any private donor
- medical care for all that will be affordable and regulated.
- free college at public schools for those who will serve in the military, work for several years as teachers, nurses, doctors, etc. for the public good.
- commence the largest infrastructure program that the US has ever seen - rebuilding archaic roads, subways, schools, highways, free internet to all, etc. This will provide for anyone who wants to work to get a check. Public Private partnership.
- greater prosecutorial enforcement of corrupt lawmakers, judges, cops, etc. Anybody taking illegal money will be in prison.
- all other means necessary to start a more peaceful, safe, intelligent and loving world.
FACDL list serve is now a virtual dog show. Lawyers are so bored they are competing for the cutest puppy pics. What we do know is that lawyers can do great photos of their beloved puppies.
It was a Shumie-time extravaganza today on the FACDL list serv as pictures of dogs, cats, pigs and parrots- legal companions all- ruled the day.
Tomorrow- the FACDL has a lasagna social distancing contest. Picture of the best lasagna wins.
And coming Wednesday- the Scott Saul dance contest. Boogie down to the tunes of the blog's rock-ist and roll-ist commentator. The essence of soul. The captain of cool will supply the tunes and lawyers will rock the day away on the listserv.
From Penobscot Island, Maine, the Big Easy-E speaks:
People of South Florida. Friends. Comrades, former colleagues. As the time of maximum virus contagion approaches, I implore you to remain inside. A month. A month and half. It's not even a hockey season. We've all tried cases longer than that.
Remain inside. Remain isolated. Remain safe.
Peace-E-Out.
I do believe the world is coming to an end but I will own a fuck load of Apple stock.
Any thoughts from you lawyers out there on “My Pillow?”
Too firm? Too soft? Just right?
Cuomo seems to have risen to the occasion.
What mean “roar of liquidity” Rumpole?
If only Cuomo was president and Trump was governor of NY.....
There is a trillion dollars in cash on the sidelines just waiting for the all clear. When that happens be prepared to ride the wave.
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