Saturday, August 11, 2012

SAVING CONGRESSMAN RYAN

85: Breaking: Saturday Night Davie, Florida: Embattled Dolphin WR Chad Johnson nee Ochocinco was arrested Saturday night after "head butting" his new wife who became irate when she found a receipt for condoms in the WR's car while the couple was returning home from dinner.  Those receipts will kill ya. 

Because we have sources everywhere who never sleep, the Captain scooped  the national media and broke the news last night that Mitt Romney would be picking Wisconsin Republican Congressman Paul Ryan as his VP nominee.

Ryan is the Republican Party's new Jack Kemp, for whatever that is worth. And it might be worth a lot. Read on Macbeth.

First a bit on timing. The polls were in rapid free fall for Mitt Romney over the last few days.  Obama's campaign gambled that by spending early to negatively define Romney (adopting the Bush playbook versus John Kerry in 2004), the Republican would be forced to spend defensively to rebut the allegations. The strategy has worked. Thus the Romney campaign called an audible, or one could say panicked a bit as the mid week polling data came in late Friday night, and chose the second worst media day of the week: Saturday morning, to make their official announcement. 
Take from the timing what you will, but outside of some favorable news in Colorado, the polling data was alarming. New polls showed Romney behind 4 points in Virginia (NY Times/CBS/ Quinnipiac)  and even the Rasmussen polls, which are somewhat Republican biased, has Obama up two points in Virginia, which not surprisingly, has a below national average unemployment rate of 5.6%. When the issue is not the economy, Romney has no chance.

Next: the rest of our data and analysis is drawn from the 538 blog, which has shown since 2000, that it is THE preeminent political analysis blog on the planet. You call follow 538  here on the NY TImes. 
538 has no demonstrable bias, calling the 2004 election for Bush in the closing days when even the Kerry campaign started calling the senator "Mr. President" when early returns on election day  suggested Kerry was going to win big in Ohio (Bush squeaked out a win in Ohio which gave him the margin of victory in the electoral college). 

The Ryan Factor: Congressman Ryan has the smallest positive impact on Romney's vote of all the potential vice presidential nominees. Ryan's positive impact on Romney votes in Wisconsin and in the national vote was put by 538 at +0.7%, whereas traditionally a vice presidential choice has  a +2.5% positive impact on the candidate in the nationwide vote.  By comparison, New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez has a positive impact of +27% on her home state voters and +4% on voters in the national election. 

Ryan comes with baggage: his conservative monetary policies, particularly as it relates to social security and medicare/medicaid, open the Romney/Ryan ticket to continued charges that the Republicans don't care about the poor. The choice of Ryan creates, in our opinion (and there is no data analysis by 538 on this at the moment) a negative impact on Romney's chances of winning Florida, with its high population of elderly retirees. But Ryan may have a bigger positive  impact on Wisconsin and to a lesser extent Ohio, although the polling data doesn't yet reflect it, and his choice should bolster Romney's current surge in Colorado, which is currently a battleground state with both campaigns  pouring large amounts of money and time into the state. One caveat: Ryan comes from the monetary neo-con movement, whose young members idolize Ayn Rand. However, Ms. Rand's Objectivist  philosophy, with its total rejection of religion, plays poorly to the Christian Right- which has a solid base in Colorado (especially the Colorado Springs area). In the past Ryan, who at times has enthusiastically embraced certain principles of Rand's philosophy, has been forced to back track when challenged by religious conservatives. 

Unfortunately for Ryan, as Ms. Rand was known to remark about "straddlers", in for a penny, in for a pound. 

538 currently puts the chances of an Obama electoral college victory at 72%, up from 68% in June. It's been a hot, tough summer for Romney. Although the economic news over the summer has been tepid at best, Obama has been able to not only negate the negative impact of the economy on his campaign, but actually increase his lead over Romney by painting him as an out of touch, wealthy, uncaring elitist. Like that picture of John Kerry windsurfing, pictures of Romney on his jet ski over the 4th of July weekend didn't help matters. Small things sometimes win big elections. 

One final thought: the selection of Ryan is Romney's final capitulation to the Republican Right. The moderate wing of the Republican party is now arguably dead and buried. It was last represented in any strength  by George Herbert Walker Bush on economics and social policy (Bush's tax increases, which cost him the election, arguably set the stage for the great economic recovery during the  Clinton adminsitration) and by on foreign affairs by  Brent Scowcroft  (Ford and Bush 41's National Security Advisor and a loud and frequent public critic of Bush 43's invasion of Iraq) and Collin Powell.

The selection of  Paul Ryan now makes him the face of the Republican party for the next thirty years (Ryan is 42).  Perhaps then it was more than just a slip of the tongue when Mitt Romney introduced Paul Ryan at their first official campaign event, televised on all the major cable news networks, as "The Next President of the United States." 
In many ways, Mr. Ryan may well be the next REPUBLICAN President of the United States. 

Game on. 

45 comments:

"American Minority" said...

Paul the Obstructionist Ryan will not be the next VP or President unless America looses all of it's brains. He's attacked senior's benefit's and wants to raise SSI age requirement to 72. Man please he's done and this is great. I jump off the couch shouting like Tom Cruise when John McNasty selected Sarah the Wasilah Hillbilly Palin and I am now just as pleased that he might be picked for VP. Willard is a dweeb I would make a better VP pick than that asshole Ryan.

Ray and Ray Ray said...

Ray: such hate.

Ray Ray: A real meanie.

Ray: we preach love.

Ray Ray: especially for cute guys.

Ray: oogah!

Ray Ray: oogah!

Ray: see our introductory comments in yesterday's post. We're a hit!

Ray Ray: rave reviews. Oooogah!

Ray: Oogah!

Anonymous said...

Anyone who would vote for Obama at this stage is not a big ballin American idealist. I make money. And I don't make it because of the government. I make it because I'm a hustler. Unlike minority.

The gang and the government ain't no different. I don't ask you what position u like to fuck in. So get your fuckin piss cup outta my face. Juana's


If you noticed, which I bet u didn't, neither mentioned god in their speeches his morning.

Anonymous said...

Rumpole,
I hear you are the man to getting all the hot ladies. What is your secret?

Signed,
Geeky Lawyer

Anonymous said...

I, David Miscavige am running for President. Once sworn in my first act will
be to enforce every American to undergo auditing sessions. If you refuse down the hole you go.

I, David Miscavige run a hugely profitable global racket that survives by intimidating members and critics in a Mafia-like manner

I, David Miscavige am to Scientologists what the Pope is to Catholics.

Watch Battlefield Earth. The greatest movie ever!

A man in Full said...

Bless Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan. I go to the Coconut Grove organic market on Saturdays, and its a great place for hippie chicks. 22 year olds wanting to save the world and 45 year old hotties on their 3rd divorce just happy for a guy to buy them dinner and nice bottle of wine. Doesn't happen every week, but every now and then.

I am in line and this smokin hottie, dark hair and jet brown eyes, comes up to me wearing an Obama Tshirt showing off a rocking body and tells me the campaign HQ is opening at 2 pm. I engage her in some good natured chat, tell her I am a Romney guy and then I issue a challenge: I peel off five hundreds and say if she has breakfast with me I will consider writing a check for 500 to the Obama Campaign. She agrees and off we go in my 911. I take her back to my condo on Grove Isle and she complains and I say that I never said where she would get breakfast but I imagine she is an egg whites, spinach, mushroom, and soy cheese girl and she laughs and agrees. So I get her up to the condo and crack some champagne for mimosas and squeeze some of the organic oranges and start telling her how supply side economics allows me to afford a condo, a porsche for the weekends and a 600 Mercedes for the clients during the week, and a boat for fun, all the while pouring the mimosas.

Lets just say by the afternoon as she was showering off, I gave her a complete lesson in Reaganomics, although I did write the check because I am a good republican capitalist, and the girl earned every dollar and more. 22, at UM on her daddy's dime, who is a venture capitalist in Amherst, Mass, and she spent most of her years in Cambridge, but she teaches yoga part time for beer money to make her feel like she's earning her way. If she sticks with me for the next few months she can save her beer money.

I love this country and I love politics!

Anonymous said...

Alan and Chris were better than Ray and Ray Ray.

Fake Kenny W said...

Me and Real Fake Former Judge just hit an amazing, unadvertised Cole Hahn shoe sale at Barneys. Unreal. Heading home to Miami tomorrow. A little sushi at Bond Street tonight, a soft bed at the Soho Grand and then a private jet home.

Ray and Ray-Ray said...

Ray: our first negative review.

Ray Ray: Screw the critics.

Ray. Right sweetie. Ooogah.

Ray Ray: oogah!

Anonymous said...

Am I the only one who doesn't find Ray and RayRay not funny and a man in full?

Rumpole said...

Geeky- high dose vitamin C, organics, a few yoga classes a week, meditate.

Anonymous said...

The 911 is the best car ever made. Nice work on banging the hippie chick.

Obama is a socialist. He feels like we the people owe the government because without government, we wouldn't have the infrastructer to succeed. He forgets that Americans paid for the infrastructure with hard earned tax dollars.

Its a government for the people not for the government.

Anonymous said...

A man in full sounds like justice building legend Ronny Guralnick in his prime. In any event, I want his life, not my miserable henpecked existence. I want to be tagging22 year old Amherst liberal hotties.

Anonymous said...

Rumpole has a hottie? How did Rump land himself a hottie?

Rumpole, who is this hottie the masses are referring to?

How, where did you meet her?
Is she beautiful?
Does she make you walk on air?
Is she limber?

lost in Paradise said...

Can someone explain to me how a 50 ish guy (I'm guessing about man in full) nails a 22 year old UM student? How do you have the balls to even try? I never got laid in Hs, barely in college and even my wife picked me up when we met. I know I'm a nerd, but I'm decent looking and even if I was single I would never have the balls to even approach a college girl. They ignored me in college, why would they want me now?

Anonymous said...

Lost in paradise:

Can someone explain to me how a 50 ish guy (I'm guessing about man in full) nails a 22 year old UM student?

Assuming the story is true (most of these pick stories are usually fantasy bullshit anyway), he does it because he can and if he scores, great, and if not, too bad and move on to the next catch.

How do you have the balls to even try?

The only way to possibly get results is to try. You'll get nothing if you don't try.

They ignored me in college, why would they want me now?

Because you have money now and they want it along with your Porsche, Mercedes, expensive dinners and all the good times and things that your money can buy for her.

Anonymous said...

@5:12- I assume the 22 year old man in full is talking about is really inflatable or he pulled off some kind of David Copperfield stunt. Hypnotism?

Regardless of how hot a girl is-- grow a pair and approach her. What's the worst that can happen? She shoots you down? So what? You will not know unless you try. Maybe she won't. This is precisely why so many hot looking babes are single. Their self esteem has been shot making way for the geeks and half decent looking guys to be with them...

The hot ones that don't lack self esteem I find are too cocky, self absorbed and go around bragging about their confidence. Total turn off.

Anonymous said...

Rumpole this hottie you speak of, what is she like?

DS said...

Here is a` surprise. I saw the Jacci Seskin TV spot. I rate it a B. Not great, but much better than decent,

Good voice over and great script. Jacci's cut should have been shorter, saying only "

please let me be you next Peoples Court Judge"

Its hard to sound good when compared to the voice over pro in your on commercial.

It DID NOT change my mind. But its a good commercial.

DS

A man in Full said...

It's pretty simple actually. 1) Keep in shape; 2) dress very well; 3) drive a nice car; 4) and this is the most important- keep trying. If I hit on 50 women a week, one will connect in a month, and that's all I need. I was out Thursday night and Friday night and struck out completely. And there she was saturday morning, this vision filling out an Obama T-shirt very very nicely, and then curled up in my bed by the afternoon.

Never give up. Always keep trying. Lightening will strike.

Rumpole said...

Quick trivia- the last congressman who -as a congressman- was elected a VP. Nixon was a congressman, but when he ran with Ike, he was a Senator, so the answer is not RMN.

CAPTAIN said...

I believe that would be John Nance Garner. FDR's first VP.

CAP OUT ...

A Man in Full said...

One wouldn't think that a seasoned vet like Chad would make a rookie mistake like leaving the condom receipt in the car. I'm not married but when I have a steady girlfriend and something something pops up, I toss the whole walgreens bag in the trash as I leave the store, throw the box away, take a few for what I need and toss the rest. Sure it costs a few bucks, but how expensive is bond and an attorney for a DV case?

Angry Girl said...

I've been watching the Sunday morning news shows and Washington "insider" lawyer, and former cabinet member Bill Bennett is as big as a house. He must weigh at least 300 pounds. His suits are tents. I bet he is diabetic and on at least two blood pressure medications, takes insulin, and takes at least two cholesterol medications.

Getting old doesn't mean having to take five to ten pills as day while your body expands so much you need a scooter to get around. Walking. Yoga. Fresh water instead of soda or diet soda. Fresh wild caught fish instead of massive steaks at the Capitol Grille. Fresh fruit for dessert instead of the chocolate mud soufflé at the Capitol Grille. Herbal tea naturally with no caffeine instead of coffee. He'd be surprised about how much better his life would be in six months.

Anonymous said...

Who's representing Chad?

Anonymous said...

The Geeks get all the beautiful women. Why?

They pick out the best gifts.
They pay attention.
They put in the extra effort.
They are trustworthy.

Geeks make beautiful women with low self esteem feel confident.

Signed,
Geeky Lawyer

Anonymous said...

9:27-- You buy condoms at Walgreens? I buy all my from CVS.

Never buy trojan ultra ribbed-- they dry up instantly , you cant feel the ribs. Totally ruined my night. The best ones are Trojan Natural Lamb. They never get irritating and really do feel like he's wearing nothing. These condoms will totally turn you off when you lay eyes on them. They truly are sheep membrane, keep in mind. I have a latex allergy but these and the poly condoms are my only choices.The other two non-latex varieties don't stretch at all. These are the most comfortable.

Anonymous said...

The Politbureau met twice in conference Friday and Saturday and Tuttle has been saved. He will not be fired for jumping on the second degree felony as his first trial when the lead atty got sick. But he has been lectured about his recklessness and a letter is in his personnel file and he is on double secret probation. But he saved his job mostly because he won. Boy wonder skates by again.

Rumpole said...

Not really the type of advice I envisioned lawyers coming to get when I created the blog.

Anonymous said...

Tuttle lives! Tuttle rules! I'm trying my next case with him.

Anonymous said...

@12:07-- Crown Skinless Skin Condoms are the way to go. It blows all other condoms out of the water. Thinner, without compromising strength. Thinner than trojan or durex!! These are the Cadillac of all condoms! I've been thinking for a long time about a vasectomy and was scared. Thanks to these I no longer have to worry because I don't need one. I had to keep checking to make sure it hadn't broke and it didn't. It took quite a beating and We both felt everything! I will never use anything else and will be back ordering more. After almost 20 yrs of searching I finally found the perfect condom. Thanks Crown and to Publix.

Anonymous said...

Trojan has a polyester condom for people who don't like latex. The worst are the polyurethane condom. These are not available in textures, ribs, studs or other novelty shapes, just plain for now.

BTW-- The trick to using ribbed condoms are to put them on inside out, so you get all the pleasure.

Anonymous said...

Does Drew Rosenhaus tell his clients that the reason he is referring a certain lawyer to them is because he is married to Drew's sister?

Anonymous said...

Adam Swickle always reps Chad, Adam is brother in law of Drew Rosenhaus and reps all of Drew's clients.

Fake Ike said...

Rump- the more I think about it, the more I think MacArthur made a mistake abandoning Manilla and going to Corregidor.

Anonymous said...

Tuttle is cut from old school revolutionary cloth. Tuttle is an anti-mitigator. Therefore, he will be hated by Rory who is an uber-mitigator.

Tuttle is doomed.

Anonymous said...

jqc investigation is going on about fake endorsements by candidate.

Anonymous said...

Perhaps Rumpole should prevent bloggers from suggesting that specific persons are out committing felonies. There is a libel statute in this state. How about some use of brain cells to decide what can come back to hurt others -- and you?

Nigel Molesworth said...

DS,
You reviewing political ads now? Seems you know everything about everything. Wasn't Jacci your homegirl at the PD's office? Also, did you learn to spell at St. C's too?

Anonymous said...

I hate Ryan, smug little prick.

Anonymous said...

7:19, you ever hear of New York Times Co. v. Sullivan, 376 U.S. 254 (1964)?

It seems like you Rump-hole people are not too familiar with the law. Gee, why am I not at all surprised?

Anonymous said...

My taxes pays for Mitts airport, his highways, his seaports and the military industrial complex that supports him and he doesn't pay any taxes on the miilions he makes with the infrastructure I pay for. What is your definition of socialist?

DS said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
DS said...

Dear Mr. Nigel Molesworth,

Yes I DO know something about almost everything. My oldest calls me Webster ( like the dictionary) but I like WikiDavid better. As far as the spelling , the only thing spell check got was its vs it's.

I have been involved, working in elections and campaigning since 1970. I have been in lots of campaigns since. I have run the N.Dade GOTV for the Dade DEC in FOUR different Presidential elections.
Nigel, you do know hat GOTV and DEC stand for, don't you?

If you have read my past posts you know I support Ivonne Cuesta, but Jacci's commercial was good and she deserved the recognition.

Peth said...

lETS SEE RYAN'S BIRTH CERTIFICATE!