WELCOME TO THE OFFICIAL RICHARD E GERSTEIN JUSTICE BUILDING BLOG. THIS BLOG IS DEDICATED TO JUSTICE BUILDING RUMOR, HUMOR, AND A DISCUSSION ABOUT AND BETWEEN THE JUDGES, LAWYERS AND THE DEDICATED SUPPORT STAFF, CLERKS, COURT REPORTERS, AND CORRECTIONAL OFFICERS WHO LABOR IN THE WORLD OF MIAMI'S CRIMINAL JUSTICE. THIS BLOG HAS BEEN CALLED "THE DEFINITIVE BLOG ON MIAMI CRIMINAL LAW" BY THE NY TIMES, THE WASHINGTON POST, THE POPE, AND DONALD TRUMP WHO ALSO ONCE SAID IT WAS "REALLY GREAT". POST YOUR COMMENTS, OR SEND RUMPOLE A PRIVATE EMAIL AT HOWARDROARK21@GMAIL.COM

Monday, July 02, 2012

PRISONER'S DILEMMA

To join the limited registry or not?  Game Theory can assist our solution tree. 
Game Theory- a  strategic decision making model based on mathematics; developed by Jon Von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern.  See, Theory Of Games and Economic Behavior, Von Neumann and Morgenstern (1944). 
Terms you will need: Zero Sum Game: one winner all others are losers.  For example, Poker (hi-lo games excluded).  Non-zero sum game: a gain by one player does not necessarily mean a loss for another and players can act in concert to achieve greater results. Example: 


Prisoner's Dilemma is the classic example of game theory analysis. The analysis shows why two individuals might not cooperate even if it can be shown mathematically that it is in their best interests to do so. 
The Dilemma: Two people are arrested. The police do not have enough complete information to convict either on the most serious charge. They are separated. The deal is made to both: If one confesses and betrays the other (betrayal strategy) he goes free if  the other one  remains silent (loyalty strategy). The silent prisoner  goes to prison for five years. If each choose to confess they each get one year. if each chooses to remain silent and loyal,  they both go free. 


It is assumed for this game that each player's interest is only in maximizing their own benefit. i.e, they have no emotional loyalty to the other player.  Thus the simple/first glance answer is that the player is better off remaining silent. But that is not what the math and game theory shows. 


                   PRISONER B BETRAYS  /    PRISONER B SILENT 


PRISONER
A SILENT             (each goes free)              /       (A gets 5 years, B goes free)

PRISONER A
BETRAYS          (B gets five years,            /    ( each gets one year)
                              A goes free )


The choice for A or B individually is always to betray. By doing so they minimize their exposure (by betraying they will never get five years) and maximize their chance for going free or getting one year (known as a Mini-Max strategy). The individual strategy choice of betrayal is said to dominate the known best strategy of staying loyal which yields the best result for both participants.  Since the rational strategy for each is too betray the other, they get more time acting rationally ( 1 year)  then not ( going free). 


Lets apply this to the limited registry. 


If you apply to the limited registry (the betrayal option in prisoners dilemma)  you will have first crack at all cases since by law the clerk must appoint a LR attorney if available. However choosing LR yields less money. 
If you choose not to go on the LR wheel (the loyalty option in prisoners dilemma) you maximize your chances for income because as a general registry attorney you can exceed the cap if needed but you also expose yourself to not getting any cases if your colleagues join the LR wheel. 


The solution to Prisoner's Dilemma that allows players to choose the best strategy is to allow exchange of information which allows both prisoners to then choose the best strategy (remain loyal and silent)  and go free.  


Game theory analysis conclusively shows that if all attorneys chose not to join the LR then every attorney achieves the optimal solution of getting more money per appointment. 


We can mathematically (email us for the solution if you need it) demonstrate that as long as everyone communicates,  their best personal solution is to remain loyal and not join the LR. The  optimal and rational answer to the question of whether to join the LR is to not join LR and force the clerk in every case to appoint a general registry attorney. The only time the non-optimal solution dominates the  optimal solution is when the parties cannot communicate. Since all attorneys can communicate in regard to this issue, THERE IS NEVER ANY BENEFIT TO ANY ATTORNEY TO JOIN THE LIMITED REGISTRY WHEEL. *


Please pass this information on to your colleagues and if they don't understand this solution have them email us and we can explain it better in further detail. 


The choice is yours. Act  rationally. 
H.R.


* One might posit that an attorney could say that by joining the LR  they will get more cases and thus more money. But observe that is the non-optimal solution. Once the LR is in existence and working with attorneys who have signed up, then the non-optimal choice will dominate  the rational choice- as in prisoners dilemma. And recall that the non-optimal choice  in prisoners dilemma  resulted in each player receiving a year in prison ( a non-optimal result). When an attorney chooses the non-optimal solution and joins the LR -they make the LR a success which means they lose the result of getting more money per case.  They also lose the result of just getting more money, since once LR succeeds  more attorneys will join LR and dilute their appointment opportunities. The attorney who makes the non-optimal  choice and joins LR achieves only the worst result: working longer and harder for less money. There can be no rational incentive- and no mathematical solution that yields an optimal result by joining the LR. 

45 comments:

Anonymous said...

Ad this is the best his lawyer can do?

"t wouldn’t be the first time a defendant is overcharged,” said Jonathan Blecher, one of his two defense attorneys.

old saying: every lawyer does not et the client he eserves, but every client gets the lawyer he deserves.

johnny blecher? really? when youre in trouble?

oy


Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/07/01/2877893/tony-montana-bust-is-a-real-gem.html#storylink=cpy

Anonymous said...

Spot on R'ole. Everyone needs to stay strong.

Anonymous said...

I predict that there will be many that will sign on to the Limited Registry, much in the same manner as many have don with other asinine concepts of the past. Why do so many accept PTD when, why do so many shy away when offered a BS plea on a case which should never have seen courthouse? Simply, there is a total want of conviction or commitment. I predict the same for the LR, there will be many who pay lip service to “standing firm” while signing up to do hack work. My suggestion to those who desperately need the $750.00, look into doing traffic magistrate work, you pick your hours, you have the flight of fancy of being a judge, and you get about $30.00 per hour, about what a plumber makes. Hell, it ain’t bad, you have no overhead, pure profit, don’t have exert yourself, no stress, at the end of the day, you are financially and emotionally ahead.

Anonymous said...

If Rod is not making the SAO's failure to prosecute David Rivera Exhibit A in why KFR needs to go, he is committing campaign malpractice.
http://www.thecrespogramreport.com/Site_10/BEHIND_THE_CURTAIN.html

Anonymous said...

It will be interesting to see who signs on the limited registry.

Up state a few years ago, there was a place where no lawyer would take a murder appointment so, a judge ordered a lawyer to take the case.

I wonder what happened to that lawyer. I hope not one fucking lawyer signs on. Then, what?

Anonymous said...

1:24

You are a hater.

signed,

hated

Anonymous said...

I picked up a new SAPD case Thursday. first hearing tuesday 7/3.. I am sill under the old contract , right? I am not signing up for the new limited wheel.. are they going to pay me under the old contract or am I gonna got strewed.

Anonymous said...

There is a further aspect to the dilemma. In a multiple defendant case the pd who gets first crack is likely to keep the defendant with the least egregious prior record, and the least culpability (logical). Next up is regional counsel who does the same. The limited registry attorney would then be left with the prps, gorts, and HOs who are most culpable in the pecking order, almost guaranteeing a trial, all for only two thousand dollars? Add to this the conflicts on unusually difficult defendants who have threatened the public defender or have filed Bar complaints. Why would anyone want to take that on for short money? Jason Grey

Anonymous said...

To paraphrase the Matthew McConaughey line: "Now imagine the lawyer in question is Generation Y."

The JD he got some years back cost him around $150,000. This debt will be with him for life. 70% of his law school classmates never found work as a lawyer -- and will never find work as a lawyer. The ABA, instead of protecting his interests, continues to accredit new law schools by the dozen. Some wealthy baby boomer lawyer, who spent about fifteen grand total on law school, who graduated into a booming economy, whose retirement and eventual end of life medical needs will be government funded, and who has known decades of economic expansion advises this young lawyer -- "Stay out of the LR! Walk away from that money, despite your debt, because that way we ALL can earn more money! (By the way, Im making $200k this year, how about you?)"

Does Rump have any idea how desperate things are for young lawyers? I don't plan to register, but I wouldnt begrudge anyone who does. The boomers pulled the ladder up after them and have had it good enough.

Anonymous said...

I'm opening "The Felony Clinic"

Rumpole said...

Listen. This is not about hiw tough it is for lawyers and whether or not $750 will help someone. Assuming a lawyer is already gettng appointments, s/he will GET LESS AND WORK MORE then what they are receiving now when they join the LR. PERIOD.

Fyi to another commentor- I won't post comments of you calling someone else "fat" no matter how rotund they have become over the years. It crosses the line I have set for this blog.

Anonymous said...

Babba booey in court count last week- Pds 22 Asas 16.
All counts verified. pds have three month lead 319-287

Anonymous said...

Who you calling fat, motherfucker?

Anonymous said...

5:55

What in the world are you talking about?

Anonymous said...

ok, ok

not a hater - just hate to see the hypocrisy of a lawyer shooting his mouth off in the press like a tough guy, when we all know he is going to roll yet another client who has a defensible case.

Anonymous said...

Court appointed work is essentially pro bono work. Shouldn't get rich.

Anonymous said...

David S Marcus your words are pathetic. This has nothing to do with justice but instead, economics. Young public defenders handle 200 cases per year and make 50k per year. Are they opportunists? What's the difference? Don't bullshit us. FACDL didn't start bitching until they were hit in the head with a bat. Now Jude acts like if you sign up for the LR your are crossing a picket line. Bullshit. You people are jokes.

Anonymous said...

Rumpole you are such a phony.

Rumpole said...

8:20- Young PDs are part of a training office. Much like residents at Jackson. Same with young ASAs.

A young PD would (hopefully) not be assigned an armed robbery where the defendant is a GORT?PERP and is facing mandatory life in prison. Nor would a young asa.

However, beyond that- young PDs and ASAs do not have the additional pressure/burden of running an office, paying a staff, paying benefit, etc. A lawyer CANNOT defend someone facing life in prison for $2,000.00

Lets look at it another way. Health care. You need your gallbladder removed. A fairly complex surgery under general anesthesia.
Do you want to go to a hospital that contracts the anesthesia to a nurse anesthetist who- to make any money that day- has to simultaneously monitor three patients during their surgeries?
Would you want your surgeon to be pressured into using a procedure that while having a higher morbidity rate, failure rate and higher post surgery pain and complications but which is cheaper to the hospital?
Would you want your insurance to insist that you be discharged on the evening of your surgery to save money even though it is accepted medical procedure to stay two days?

We have peoples lives' in our hands like doctors do. There is a tendency to discount this because of the nature of our work (the defendant is really guilty so when we lose and he goes to prison justice was served.)

Do doctors try less when they have a heart attack patient that smokes and is 40 pounds overweight? Would you want a doctor who worked that way?

The moment the lawyer starts justifying less work because they believe their client is guilty anyway so what does it matter, is the moment the lawyer crosses the line and is the moment when tragedies occur and innocent people go to prison.

In the final analysis if the state wants to impose draconian prison sentences on people, and spend money on prosecutors and prisons and roc court judges, then they need to spend money on criminal defense and due process costs. And if we fail to stand up to the state then we are no better than the officials in Vichy France that cooperated with the fascists.

8:40- I am not phony. Merely anonymous.

Anonymous said...

I left the State a few years ago. I am struggling as a solo. I don't have a bondsman tipping me cases. I've had defense attorneys (well respected too) sleep during depositions. I've had other go to trial with no depositions (those attorneys were sometimes successful, sometimes not).

There is limited discovery in federal cases, yet all the most respected criminal defense attorneys have strong practices that deal with almost exclusively federal work.

Anonymous said...

If you google game theory and universities you will quickly be led to one in particular. I teach game theory at this university. I have written several papers on the Nash Equilibrium and the paradox of prisoners dilemma and other game theory scenarios. I get daily updates on articles posted on game theory. I was directed to this blog. The author's analysis is spot on. I am wondering if he is a former student. I have emailed him and wish him to contact me. The article has the foundations of a longer scholarly article.

Anonymous said...

With all due respect to the professor and to the eminent blogger, (and I am also the 1:10pm poster), where the game theory analogy breaks down can best be explained by the following tweak.

Imagine that both prisoners have children to provide for. Whereas prisoner A's child will be well provided for, with lots of money and private school, no matter the outcome, imagine prisoner B's kid will have nothing if his old man gets the max years.

Point being, there are not equal circumstances among attorneys, as there are in the prisoners' dilemma. Five years won't hurt you like it hurts me. The lawyers most adamant about holding the line with respect to the LR seem well fed. Some of the rest of us are suffering under crushing law school debt and with no real sense of being protected by older lawyers, the ABA, the FACDL or anyone. Quite the opposite.

As I wrote, I am not joining the LR, but find the moral framing of the issue to wonderfully illustrate how clueless older, wealthier attorneys are about the lived reality of debt-crushed younger attorneys.

Anonymous said...

When I retired as a public defender after 6 years I was making 49k and handling the most serious cases. I also had a kid and a wife.

Anonymous said...

12 law schools and counting. Two attorneys want to open another in Daytona Beach.

Are there really that many civil litigants or criminals who can afford legal fees so these new attorneys can support themselves and their families?

I wouldn't know the FACDL from the AFL-CIO but if I am correct, both organizations are loaded with dead wood and toadies at the top who really want to preserve the status quo.

DS said...

I was just promoted to ROC Court. I took over Pete Ferrero's case load.
No Raise , of course. But Now I have 75 cases , all facing life. Divide that into my Salary and I'm making $1100 a case. Even, when benifits added in, its $1325 a case.
I am an AV rated lawyer, Tried over 160 Felonys and got 25 years under my belt. I think I will NEVER be paid what I deserve, but I keep answering Gideon's Trumpet.

DS

DS said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
DS said...

My Dearest A.M
On July 3, at 1:23am ,you said
"So I obviously was referring to the under achievers over at the PD's office. There are some exceptional P.D.'s, however the majority of them are reckless and lack diligence. "

The people who want to work at the PDs are neither reckless nor lack diligence". They usually are True Believers in the Constitution and fight with all their might for Truth, Justice and The` American Way.
IF you had interned in the PDO you would understand. A Felony APD handles about 100 cases at a time and earns $42000. That comes out to $420 a case. Yet each is dedicated and works hard for their client.

A Gentleman and a Scholar would not be so reckless to insult people working for a relative pittance to help others stay free.

I am sorry to go so low, but nothing else truly expresses my feelings about you comment than:

FUCK YOU

DS

Anonymous said...

Nobody, and I mean nobody should join. If they do, they are scabs and they should be punished.

We should all band together against this.

I say NO to the registry.

Join me!

Kissimmee Kid said...

PDs in the courtroom are at the tip of a spear, like the Marines. They are backed by a large, accomplished infrastructure. They are a specialized force, with leadership and a chain of command. There are investigators, paralegals, secretaries and administrators backing up the lawyer in the court room. Comparing a private practice lawyer with a PD is like comparing a hunter in the woods with a Marine recon. They are both armed, but they are not equal.

Anonymous said...

to the poster at 9:25 regarding Roderick $pence Jone's campaign and corrupt politico David Rivera-- save your advice-- dont you know that this is a spite campaign ? Michelle and David are behind Rod-- he's an empty suit (politically speaking---nice guy, good defense lawyer) looking for an office. Michelle just got a $50 million community block grant development payout for overtown and park west to use as her ATM for the next 4 years-- she needs someone she can keep on a leash in that office-- and David Rivera ??? he's so screwed federally-- just wait. Karma man, its a bitch.

wheel attorney said...

DS:

Bravo to your commitment to the cause of the defenseless. All PD's stand as part of LLC in my eyes.

Please remember that anyone in private practice doing the same thing would go bankrupt after about a month.

Just factor in the rent, phones, internet, copier, fax, scanner, printer, parking space, receptionist, secretary, bar dues, health insurance, stationary, postage, office supplies, etc etc etc - should I go on?????

You have NONE of these expenses. They add up to many many thousands of dollars.

Your and the rest of your team of dediciated APD's have a thankless job and no one but no one does it better. Any of us that have ever had the honor to work for BB or CM know that statement to be true.

But, you are comparing apples and oranges if you are comparing PCAC compensation to APD compensation.

Happy 4th

Anonymous said...

i was making 19,000 a year as a PD fresh out of law school with 120 k in student loans.

had to drive to work down side streets because my old car, which had no ac, couldnt go 55 on the highway or it would stall. had to park on side streets behind the county court SAo becauzse i had no money for a lot. when it rained i would show up for 830 calednar call and my cheap shoes and my pants to my knees would be soaked through. carrying a lunchbox.

and i was pissed that the state atty at the podium across the way was making the princely sum of 2,000 more a year than me!

and was in trial at least twice a month, often 5 times, for years.

the best way to start a career.

ever.

Anonymous said...

Goodness, DS - feeling a little defensive, aren't we?

"American Minority" said...

My Dearest Sir D.S., FUCK YOU too, and have a wonderful 4th of July.
A.M.;)

"American Minority" said...

I am a man amongst men, and I will always stand tall.
/G\

Anonymous said...

Why is American Minority so hostile in his comments? Are you feeling constipated? If so might I suggest a glass of tang followed by a granola bar- it'll loosen those bowels in no time and perhaps then you'll be in a less hostile mood.

Anonymous said...

AM.........perhaps you should practice a little law and spend some time in the PDO or SAO before you judge the "majority" of APDs.

The truth is that most of the senior APDs are terrific attorneys who deserve far better than you're giving them.

I'm with DS on this one.

BTDT

Anonymous said...

3:25, I remember that APD's used to start at $2,000 per year more than ASA's.

Anonymous said...

Why would David Rivera be behind Rod? Kathy made a huge favor for him by not filing a 52-count information against him.

Fake Joel Brown said...

This blog is a hot bed of perfidy and calumny and I demand it stop. Everyone. Sign up for the limited registry now. I mean it.

"American Minority" said...

6:06pm, So DS did not initiate the Chutzpah or are you're just Zimmerman bias too?

"American Minority" said...

Again the Senior APD's are Excellent Attorney's. I am referring to the lesser intellectually and Constitutionally inclined.

"American Minority" said...

6:06 You are typical white guy curses he's expressing him self. Black guy curses he's hostile.(In my Rod Roddy voice): You win second place as cracker of the week, week, week,. Congratulations! Enjoy your BBQ Bratwurst's too.

DS said...

AM
No YOU started this w your insuly

"So I obviously was referring to the under achievers over at the PD's office. There are some exceptional P.D.'s, however the majority of them are reckless and lack diligence. "

that is what the FU is for

DS

Anonymous said...

Barbeque Bratwurst? You've obviously never had a Bratwurst or any sort of German food whatsoever.