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Sunday, November 02, 2008

NFL WEEK NINE

After a monster week (a little Halloween humor) we find ourselves up 829 McCain's heading into election week.  Working our new matrix regression towards the mean yields these games:

Colts -5.5 over the visiting Patriots. We said at the start of the season that the Colts would not win their division, and they won't. But there is still plenty in the tank to beat the visiting patsies minus pretty boy Brady. Colts -5.5 +100. (update- gonna double this to 200 because Fins surprised me. Actually, Denver surprised me. They're really bad.)

Texans at Minnesota.  A matchup of states that McCain only wins one of. (That sentence is the reason why you should never end a sentence with a preposition. It just stinks.)  The Texans are riding a three game streak while the Vikes lost a shootout to da Bears last week. Things even out as the Vikes beat the Texans. Vikes -4.5 +100. 

The Fins pulled our butt out of the fire last week, and we wish we could return the favor, but we can't. The Bronocs are coming off a bye week and the Fins travel to Mile High for the type of game they need to win to become contenders. They can smack down an overrated Bills team at home, but they just don't have the talent to win these types of road games consistently.  Denver coming off a loss to the Patsies while the Fins coming off a win over the Bills. Regression to the average rears its ugly head at the expense of our Fins. Broncos -3  +200

Sara Palin Prank Phone Call. Our wannabe VP fooled by a couple of Canadian Radio Hosts.  If McCain wins (not likely, see below)  Canada might just trick Palin into giving them Michigan.   

McCain likes to brag that he is endorsed by "four former Secretaries of State." But here's  former Sec of State Lawrence Eagleberger giving an interview in which he says "Of course Palin is not ready to be President." Eagelberger worked for the the first (and best) President Bush. 

Early Election Prediction:
McCain loses in a runaway. We'll post our final figures Tuesday morning, calling individual states as well.  Right now, before we review final polls,  we feel comfortable predicting 
Obama 340
McCain 198. 

From the best polling website there is: fivethirtyeight dot com.


We can probably assume, however, that IF the national polls tighten significantly (and to reiterate, the likelihood is that they will NOT), McCain will edge out a victory in North Carolina, Florida, Indiana, North Dakota, Montana, Georgia, and Missouri; put those states in the McCain column for the time being. Likewise, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa all appear safe for Obama, even in the case of significant tightening. Put those in the Obama column.

That leaves our five states in play. The victory conditions for Obama involving these five states proceed something as follows:

1. Win Pennsylvania and ANY ONE of Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, or Nevada*
2. Win Ohio and EITHER Colorado OR Virginia.
3. Win Colorado AND Virginia AND Nevada.

(* Nevada produces a 269-269 tie, which would probably be resolved for Obama in the House of Represenatives.)

Now, suppose you think that Colorado is already in the bag for Obama because of his large edge in early voting there. We can then simplify the victory conditions as follows:

1. Win Pennsylvania
2. Win Ohio
3. Win Virginia AND Nevada

That's basically what it comes down to, although I'm sure each campaign would claim that there are a larger number of states in play.

16 comments:

eyeonshumie&palin said...

Palin got Shummied!!!!!
Big time.

third dca guy said...

Everyone needs a cause. A reason to get out of bed in the morning. If I've learned anything it is that.

My cause: Put Judge Andy Hague on the 3rd DCA.

He will bring the perfect balance to a court in need of guidance. He will end the divisivness that now is the hallmark of their opinions.

HAGUE NOW. For Florida's Future.

Who's on board???

Anonymous said...

Rumpole's running in the NYC Marathon!!!!!! See his comment yesterday. OMG, Run Rump Run.

Anonymous said...

Hague is not qualified to sit on the 3rd

Anonymous said...

Joe Biden also said that Obama wasn't ready to be president.

Anonymous said...

http://athletetracker.ingnycmarathon.org/

If Rumpole is really running the marathon, which I do not believe he is, you could find a list of everyone participating.

Anonymous said...

what was the defendant's name and who was the prosecutor on the case that Feiler got a not guilty on this last week?

the pundit said...

The following states are "in play": VA, CO, NV (likely to go to Obama), OH, FL (trending to Obama), MO, IN, NC, MT, ND (tossups), GA, ND (probably will go to McCain), AZ, WV, SD (would be surprised if Obama took any of these). Note two things:

1. Bush carried all of these states in both 2000 and 2004.

2. PA is not in play. It is my native state. A friend of mine who is working for the McCain campaign confirmed that their internal polls show an unsurmountable Obama lead. McCain may pick off some votes from older, socially conservative Democrats in Western PA, who are wary of voting for a black. Otherwise, he has surged a few points, but not enough. Obama will carry PA by 5 to 8 points.

My electoral picks:

Obama 356 (takes MT, CO, NV, VA, OH, FL, NC)

McCain 182 (takes MO, IN and the GOP-leaning tossups).

At 7 PM on Tuesday, the Virginia, Indiana and Georgia polls close. All 3, plus the Kentucky polls (which also close at 7), give keys. If McCain wins Virginia, it will be a cliffhanger a la 2000 and 2004. If Obama wins Virginia by more than 5 points, it will be a long night for the GOP. If McCain loses IN, he's done. Even a close (2 point or less) loss by Obama is a good harbiniger for him. If McCain loses GA, we are talking Obama landslide. As for KY, if Mitch McConnell looks to be in trouble, the Dems are probably going to land 60 Senate seats.

Rumpole said...

Whew.

Anonymous said...

Is Obama's Auntie going home or to Krome??? "Barack Obama’s aunt, a Kenyan woman who has been quietly living in public housing in Boston, is in the United States illegally after an immigration judge rejected her request for asylum four years ago, The Associated Press has learned.

Zeituni Onyango, 56, referred to as “Aunti Zeituni” in Obama’s memoir, was instructed to leave the United States by a U.S. immigration judge who denied her asylum request, a person familiar with the matter told the AP late Friday. This person spoke on condition of anonymity because no one was authorized to discuss Onyango’s case.

Information about the deportation case was disclosed and confirmed by two separate sources, one of them a federal law enforcment official."

Anonymous said...

The NH polls showed Obama ahead against Hilary but she won it. Was that a black thing? Are the polls correct in what people are saying, but wrong as to the intent once in the booth. So many people (democrats) who sided against Obama trashed as racist. So why would you tell a pollster (stranger) you would go against Obama and risk being trashed/labled a racist?

Just worried the pollsters got it right and wrong at the same time. I hope and pray Obama wins!

Anonymous said...

Dear Obama Zombies,
Auntie is living in the US illegally in public housing that you, the American tax payer, must pay for, and that's fraud! She is also disobeying a direct order from a judge. Contempt.

Anonymous said...

President Obama, the most unqualified and inexperienced candidate in the history of the Country, the possibility of 3 new US Supreme Court Justices appointed by the #1 most liberal US Senator, (more liberal than even admitted socialist Bernie Sanders!), Speaker Pelosi with a veto-proof majority in the house, Harry Reid with 60+ Senate seats. Jesus, this country is doomed.

Anonymous said...

Rump

Maintain what little credibility you have since you didn't run in NY today.

The Hate Sheet is available! said...

It's that time of the year for the Christian Family Coalition (Hate Sheet) release of low life despereate candidates who want to win at all cost.

Take a peek at the list and make sure those listed and endorsed do not get your vote or those of family and friends.

Every year about this time CFC helps us by preparing the "Hate Sheet" and save us the valuable time of determining who is a low life piece of crap. The CFC will not endorse you unless you are willing to discriminate and hate those different from you.

Here is the list:

http://cfc-alert.net/Candidate-slate-1008.htm

Anonymous said...

Hague is a moron. He knows nothing about civil.