UPDATE- THINGS WILL START MOVING QUICKLY AT 7PM. WE WILL BE OUT OF TOUCH UNTIL 7:30- CHECK FOR FIRST UPDATE BY 8PM. THIS WILL ALL BE OVER QUICKLY.
44. The Reggie Jackson President. Today we elect the 44th President of the United States.
Barak Obama will be the 44th President of the US, and he will be declared the winner sometime between 9:01 and 10:01 PM.
The Times has a guide to election night here, with poll closing times and when the race may be called.
Our unscientific but extremely close look at over 6 national and 65 state polls leads us to state the following:
As of Monday evening there was a general convergence in national polls, with Obama averaging a 7 point national lead. These polls will be fairly accurate because oddly enough, of one mistake most of them have made: over stating the number of undecided voters. The undecided percentage throughout most of October was 3%, NOT the 7-10% reported in the media. As the undecideds broke in October, they broke 7-1 for Obama.
The short version: Obama will hold all states that voted for Kerry in 2004, AND GAIN Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada, North Dakota, North Carolina, Missouri, Colorado, Florida, Virginia and probably Ohio.
The prediction: 367 to 171.
McCain: Texas, Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, Arizona, Alaska, Oklahoma, Indiana, Kansas, Nebraska, Montana, South Dakota, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, South Carolina, Georgia(barely), Kentucky, West Virginia.= 171 Electoral Votes.
Obama: California, Oregon, Washington State, North Dakota, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, Missouri, Minnesota, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, Massachusetts, Illinois, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, New York, New Jersey, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii.
=367 Electoral Votes.
Election Night we will have our laptop up and running and will post your commentary as it comes in. Some local elections to watch including a Dade circuit judicial election and the ever entertaining Broward's " A Vote for Dijols=Obama/Levey-Cohen."
Who will win? Who cares?
See You Election Eve.
UPDATE: Election night Preview:
7PM: Polls close in Indiana and Virginia. nb: Government officials have the ability to keep polls open in Virginia another two hours if needed.
7:30: Polls close in North Carolina and Ohio.
8:00 Polls close in Florida, Missouri, and Pennsylvania.
9:00 Polls close in Colorado and New Mexico.
Why did McCain invest so much time in New Hampshire in the last weeks of the campaign? Two reasons. 1) He is genuinely fond of the State that gave him a start in 2000 and a comeback in 2008; 2) The road to 270. Fun fact: If McCain wins Colorado and New Hampshire and holds on to the Bush states of Ohio and Florida he squeeks into the Presidency. On the other hand, Obama can LOSE all the big states (Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida) and get to 270 by winning Colorado, New Mexico and Virginia. McCain's road to 270 is a whole lot narrower than Obama's. That's why the 7pm poll closings are significant. Obama is polling ahead in both states. If he wins Indiana OR Virginia, game over. See ya in 2012.
Check in around 7pm for our first big update.