WELCOME TO THE OFFICIAL RICHARD E GERSTEIN JUSTICE BUILDING BLOG. THIS BLOG IS DEDICATED TO JUSTICE BUILDING RUMOR, HUMOR, AND A DISCUSSION ABOUT AND BETWEEN THE JUDGES, LAWYERS AND THE DEDICATED SUPPORT STAFF, CLERKS, COURT REPORTERS, AND CORRECTIONAL OFFICERS WHO LABOR IN THE WORLD OF MIAMI'S CRIMINAL JUSTICE. THIS BLOG HAS BEEN CALLED "THE DEFINITIVE BLOG ON MIAMI CRIMINAL LAW" BY THE NY TIMES, THE WASHINGTON POST, THE POPE, AND DONALD TRUMP WHO ALSO ONCE SAID IT WAS "REALLY GREAT". POST YOUR COMMENTS, OR SEND RUMPOLE A PRIVATE EMAIL AT HOWARDROARK21@GMAIL.COM

Tuesday, November 04, 2008

8PM UPDATE

Obama is losing the republican areas of Indiana by a much closer margin than Kerry did in 2004. Ditto for the Republican areas of Ohio. 

OBAMA TAKES PENNSYLVANIA ; ILLINOIS, NEW JERSEY; MASSACHUSETTS; MARYLAND
CONNECTICUT; NEW HAMPSHIRE; MAINE; DELAWARE;  DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA;  OBAMA HAS 103 ELECTORAL VOTES.  Pennsylvania stays Democratic for last 24 years.  15% reporting, Obama has 320K lead in Florida. 

MCCAIN TAKES TENNESSEE; ; SOUTH CAROLINA; Alabama. McCain's strategy was hinged on taking Pennsylvania. His chances have dimmed considerably. 
8:30 MCCAIN HOLDS GEORGIA. He needed it. He got it. 

FYI: 6 years ago Saxby Chamblis defeated a Vietnam Veteran war wounded and handicapped and wheelchair bound Senator Max Cleland  by engaging in a campaign that set a record for sleaziness.  He ran commercials (with the idea given to him by Karl Rove) to superimpose images of Bin Laden and Saddam Hussein over Cleland's picture. It worked in Georgia. Perhaps no more. Chamblis is headed to a defeat and it could not happen to a more deserving guy. 

Senate seat in New Hampshire is a Democratic pick up from the Republicans as Sununu loses to the former Governor Shaheen in a rematch from 6 years ago. 

Kay Hagan beats Senator Dole in North Carolina.  This is what you call "coattails" folks. Another net senate pickup for the Democrats.  Dole had a constituency problem, only being in state 16 days in 2007.  Dole  also made an amazing mistake attacking Hagan for appearing at a fundraiser by an atheist organization. Dole ran a "godless money" attack ad, only to see it backfire when Hagan responded with ads about her being an elder in her church for the last 20 years 

22 comments:

Anonymous said...

Careful, Rump. This is shaping up not to be the blow-out that The One predicted.

Rumpole said...

Just watch how it falls in the next hour. I will be asleep before 11. Yawn.

Anonymous said...

And just think, if The One wins, you wont have to get up to work ever again! The wealthy (those making 250K, uh, 200K, uh, 150K, uh, no, 120K, no, wait, 90k?) will spread their wealth to you so you! Free health care for everyone (except those who have to pay for it!)

Anonymous said...

Christine Jennings loses!!! Again! Maybe this time she wont spend 2 years contesting her loss like a sore loser!

Rumpole said...

And lets not forget he will outlaw the playing of the National Anthem. He will remove the American Flag from the White House. He will make a terrorist the chairman of the joint chiefs. He will free everyone from prison. He will end support for Israel. He will turn the Capital into a Muslim Mosque. He actually is a Muslim you know. Lets see...what else. Oh yeah. You will have to surrender your firearms and take off your flag lapel pin.

Rumpole said...

from 538.com

Obama is outperforming Kerry by a 12-15 point net in the Eastern half of the Virginia.

In the Western half, he's not performing much better than Kerry and is actually underperfoming him in some counties.

I think that equation works out favorably for Obama on balance, though Virginia will be fairly close

the pundit said...

Virginia
Ohio
North Carolina
Indiana
Florida
Colorado

If Obama wins ONE of these six states, he is the next President. He also will tie (and win in the House) if he takes Nevada. He can also win by taking Montana and North Dakota. Needless to say, McCain's chances are somewhere between very slim and none.

I'm surprised that IN is still so close, also surprised that VA hasn't been called yet.

With Libby Dole losing, and the tighter than expected races in GA and KY, looks like Mr. Obama will have some coattails. Assuming he wins, he will be the first President since Reagan to win his first team with his party making gains in Congress.

Rumpole said...

Virginia is probably closer than Obama thought it would be.

Anonymous said...

He will turn the US into a European country. How many jobs were created in Europe compared to the US during the same time period? Not even a close call. 14 million to zero, give or take. He is a socialist, and socialism doesn't work.

Rumpole said...

Gee- Bush just Nationalized the Banks and most of Wall Street. He gave billions to AIG because they failed- and you call Obama a socialist??? What do you call an administration that doesn't let the free market decide who survives and who does not? Really- when a government bails out a company that is failing- do you call that capitalism or socialism? I'm interested in your reply.

Anonymous said...

You prove my point, exactly, Rump. Bush used a "little" socialism to fix an economic problem (which was caused by government intervention itself), and look what it got him. It did nothing but increase the deficit, and led to yet another potential bailout. Reminds me of the saying: If you think the problems caused by the government are bad, just wait till the government's solutions!

Rumpole said...

No I did not. You call Obama a socialist. The Republican president just spent a TRILLION DOLLARS bailing out businesses. IS THE REPUBLICAN PARTY A PARTY OF SOCIALISTS? YES OR NO. AND EXPLAIN WHY.

Rumpole said...

FROM WIKIPEDIA:

Socialism refers to a broad set of economic theories of social organization advocating state or collective ownership and administration of the means of production and distribution of goods, and the creation of an egalitarian society.[1][2] Modern socialism originated in the late nineteenth-century working class political movement. Karl Marx posited that socialism would be achieved via class struggle and a proletarian revolution which represents the transitional stage between capitalism and communism.[3][4]

Socialists mainly share the belief that capitalism unfairly concentrates power and wealth among a small segment of society that controls capital and creates an unequal society. All socialists advocate the creation of an egalitarian society, in which wealth and power are distributed more evenly, although there is considerable disagreement among socialists over how, and to what extent this could be achieved.[1]

Anonymous said...

Your right. Obama is not a socialist.

http://i210.photobucket.com/albums/bb160/classicsatch/20080211obamachehouston2.jpg

Anonymous said...

One more time.

http://i210.photobucket.com/albums/bb160/classicsatch/
20080211obamachehouston2.jpg

the pundit said...

Notice how the "blue battleground" states of 2004--PA, MN, MI, WI and , to a lesser extent, NJ--were quickly called for Obama.

Biggest surprise is the tight race in VA. I thought it would be called for Obama by now. Likewise, I thought IN would be called for McCain by now. And I thought the NC senate race would be much closer, and the GA and KY races would be called by now.

Going to be a pretty good night for the Dems. How good I cannot say yet.

Rumpole said...

No answer huh? What do you call a Republican president and his party who gave a Trillion dollars to save businesses who otherwise would have closed because of their bad decisions? Hmmm....Not Capitalism.

If you have any doubts, read "Capitalism, The Unknown Ideal" by, you guessed it AYN RAND.

Anonymous said...

Rump - Congrats. You are on the same side as al Jazeera and Al Qaeda.
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/americas/2008/
03/2008525125628662845.html

Anonymous said...

You are exactly right, Rump. Bush's mistake (and there are several) is that he tried to be like Democrats. Except, Republicans can never be as good at being Democrats as Democrats. Don't look to me to defend the bailout. Bush should have done what Reagan did when Detroit came looking for a bailout. He told them to improve or fail. THAT is capitalism. Bush is no Reagan, and that is why he is so unpopular. (Although, his approval rating IS approximately 400% higher than Congress'! - 9% to 36%)

the pundit said...

Obama takes Ohio. It's over. Only question is how big Obama's margin of victory will be. Looks like he will get around 350 EVs.

Sore Loser said...

I am tired. I am going to bed. Not sure I am getting up to go to work tomorrow.

the pundit said...

New Mexico goes blue. North Carolina and Florida looking like Obama territory. Virginia and Indiana tied. McCain is done. I will watch the concession and victory speeches and call it a night.

I will provide a postmortem tomorrow, then disappear (at least as The Pundit) until fall 2010.