Sunday, October 19, 2008
NFL WEEK SEVEN
We cannot find a game/match up/line that we really like this week. But we like these two over plays.
Cleveland/ Washington over 42.5. 150.
Bills/Chargers. Over 44. +150.
Many people have emailed us asking our secrete in picking football games. A few years ago, almost in an epiphany, we realized that a few simple football statistics when measured against each other gave an almost unprecedented insight into any particular match up. This year, we have been experimenting with this proposition: most teams deviate towards the average of 8-8. Thus a team that has an amazing win one week, should have a less dominating performance the following week- all things being equal. Of course all things are never equal and that is why some teams finish 14-2. But most don't. So we have added a new matrix to our equations to help us identify the vast majority of mediocre teams and pick against them as they are pulled by the ghost of Pete Rozelle towards 8-8.
Herewith are our two picks based on our new matrix:
Green Bay +1 at home over Indy. +25
Carolina -3 at home over the Saints. +25.
We'll go light on these picks until we fine tune the matrix.
NEW SUICIDE POOL CHAMP.
The new champ blog reader and high powered criminal defense lawyer, with offices in Broward AND Washington DC: CARY MARTIN CLENNON, ESQ.
Which just goes to show you that this humble blog is read well beyond the confines of 14th street and 14th avenue.
We haven't had a moment to breathe recently to get the prize package out, but it includes a framed certificate certifying that Cary Clennon is the winner of the 2008 Justice Building Blog NFL Suicide Pool, and as such is entitled to all the rights, responsibilities, privileges, AND immunities, said title confers, and.....a Starbucks Gift card.
Coming Monday: "When Character was King."