McCain is sitting solid on 201 electoral votes (Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, North and South Dakota, Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, Utah, Arizona, Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina. Louisiana)
Obama is sitting solid at 273 electoral votes: The entire Northeast-DC, Maryland, Delaware, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Pennsylvania. The entire West coast and pacific northwest- California, Oregon, Washington. The northern Midwest- Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, Iowa. And some parts of the west- New Mexico, Colorado.
The most important toss-up states are now breaking for Obama, according to the polling data we've seen. Ohio, West Virginia, North Carolina, Nevada, and surprisingly enough- Florida. The Fox/Rasssmussen Poll, a decidedly Republican polling company, has Florida at Obama 52- McCain 45 on October 6, 2008. The same company has the same results for Ohio- Obama 52- McCain 45.
What can McCain do to win? He needs Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina . McCain also needs to take Colorado (9), Nevada(5), New Mexico(5) Virginia (13) and Pennsylvania (21) from Obama. That would be a net loss of 53 for Obama bringing him below the magic 270. The net gain of 53 would take McCain from 201 to 254. McCain then needs to win 1 of these toss up states : Ohio (20) , Florida (27), North Carolina(15).
Indiana (11), West Virginia(5), Louisiana (9), and Arkansas (6), which are all leaning towards McCain for a total of 31 votes could help if they all break his way AND McCain wins Ohio or Florida or Pennsylvania.
John McCain is a victim of history and circumstance. Our country and our world would be a much different and better place if Bush and Rove had not savaged him in the 2000 South Carolina Primary over allegations that his adopted daughter was actually an illegitimate child fathered out of wedlock.
Now we teeter on the brink of a depression and the public just does not have any faith in Republicans. Things might have been different if McCain had picked Mitt Romney as his running mate. McCain would then have a legitimate voice on the economy to provide some leadership in these tough times.
It was many years ago when we worked in the Republican party, but we impart this piece of advice if any Republican can stop chanting "drill baby drill" long enough to listen to reason: Hold a press conference in Michigan. Introduce Mitt Romney as your secretary of the Treasury. Then send him on the campaign trail in Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Keep Palin in Northern Florida, North Carolina, Colorado and Nevada in front of friendly crowds.
That's how you win this race if you're John McCain.