WELCOME TO THE OFFICIAL RICHARD E GERSTEIN JUSTICE BUILDING BLOG. THIS BLOG IS DEDICATED TO JUSTICE BUILDING RUMOR, HUMOR, AND A DISCUSSION ABOUT AND BETWEEN THE JUDGES, LAWYERS AND THE DEDICATED SUPPORT STAFF, CLERKS, COURT REPORTERS, AND CORRECTIONAL OFFICERS WHO LABOR IN THE WORLD OF MIAMI'S CRIMINAL JUSTICE. THIS BLOG HAS BEEN CALLED "THE DEFINITIVE BLOG ON MIAMI CRIMINAL LAW" BY THE NY TIMES, THE WASHINGTON POST, THE POPE, AND DONALD TRUMP WHO ALSO ONCE SAID IT WAS "REALLY GREAT". POST YOUR COMMENTS, OR SEND RUMPOLE A PRIVATE EMAIL AT HOWARDROARK21@GMAIL.COM

Thursday, October 09, 2008

ELECTION UPDATE

Here's where we see the Presidential election so far:

McCain is sitting solid on 201 electoral votes (Texas,  Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, North and South Dakota, Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, Utah, Arizona,  Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina. Louisiana)

Obama is sitting solid at 273 electoral votes:  The entire Northeast-DC, Maryland, Delaware, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Pennsylvania. The entire West coast and pacific northwest- California, Oregon, Washington. The northern Midwest- Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, Iowa. And some parts of the west- New Mexico, Colorado.

The most important toss-up states are now breaking for Obama, according to the polling data we've seen.  Ohio, West Virginia, North Carolina, Nevada, and surprisingly enough- Florida.  The Fox/Rasssmussen Poll, a decidedly Republican polling company, has Florida at Obama 52- McCain 45 on October 6, 2008.  The same company has the same results for Ohio- Obama 52- McCain 45. 

What can McCain do to win?  He needs Florida, Ohio,  and North Carolina . McCain also needs to take Colorado (9), Nevada(5),  New Mexico(5)  Virginia (13) and Pennsylvania (21)  from Obama. That would be a net loss of 53 for Obama bringing him below the magic 270.  The net gain of 53 would take McCain from 201 to 254.  McCain then needs to win 1 of these toss up states : Ohio (20) , Florida (27), North Carolina(15).

Indiana (11), West Virginia(5), Louisiana (9), and Arkansas (6), which are all leaning towards McCain for a total of 31 votes could help if they all break his way AND McCain wins Ohio or Florida or Pennsylvania. 

John McCain is a victim of history and circumstance.  Our country and our world would be a much different and better place if Bush and Rove had not savaged him in the 2000 South Carolina Primary over allegations that his adopted daughter was actually an illegitimate child fathered out of wedlock. 

Now we teeter on the brink of a depression and the public just does not have any faith in Republicans. Things might have been different if McCain had picked Mitt Romney as his running mate. McCain would then have a legitimate voice on the economy to provide some leadership in these tough times. 

It was many years ago when we worked in the Republican party, but we impart this piece of advice if any Republican can stop chanting "drill baby drill" long enough to listen to reason: Hold a press conference in Michigan. Introduce Mitt Romney as your secretary of the Treasury. Then send him on the campaign trail in Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.  Keep Palin in Northern Florida, North Carolina, Colorado and Nevada in front of friendly crowds. 

That's how you win this race if you're John McCain. 

22 comments:

Anonymous said...

ONE more paragraph from Chuck's WND version...

“And was [this financial crisis] really the total responsibility of the past eight years of government? Now that we know Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were the epicenter of the economic earthquake, I was intrigued to read a New York Times September 30, 1999 column that pointed out, ‘Fannie Mae, the nation's biggest underwriter of home mortgages, has been under increasing pressure from the Clinton Administration to expand mortgage loans among low and moderate income people….By expanding the type of loans that it will buy, Fannie Mae is hoping to spur banks to make more loans to people with less-than-stellar credit ratings.’ The article closed with a prophetic word by Peter Wallison, a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, who forecasted, ‘From the perspective of many people, including me, this is another thrift industry growing up around us. If they fail, the government will have to step up and bail them out the way it stepped up and bailed out the thrift industry.’

Anonymous said...

a victim of history and circumstances? what? he is old, clueless, too hot tempered, and not that smart. Those are enough reasons for him to lose on his own. Couple that with the fact that Republicans are dirt nowadays, and you have a runaway election. Thank god because we need to save our country. Signed, an independent who cannot stand John McCain or anyone else with an R next to his/her name.

Anonymous said...

Rump, your math is off. Right now McCain is looking at about 158 solid votes (moving WV to tossup), although he could also lose MT and GA. Obama is looking at about 264 solid electoral votes--and will probably get more.

Of the tossups, WV and NC appear to be ties. IN is breaking ever so slightly for McCain. Obama is building decent-sized leads in CO, VA, OH, NV and FL, and has a very slim lead in MO.

Stick a fork in McCain. He's done. Even bringing Romney on board couln't help him now.

The GOP is going to take a bath in the Congressional voting too. Dems will end up with 56 Senate seats if they have a bad night, 61 or 62 if they have a really good night. They will probably gain about 20 House seats and have near 250 Reps. About the only good news for the GOP is that Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, who was expected to have a tough re-election battle, is crusing to victory.

Anonymous said...

Please join me for a happy hour fundraiser in honor of the candidacy of Yvonne Colodny for Circuit Court Judge. In addition to being a good friend, Yvonne is exceptionally qualified to sit on the Circuit Court Bench. The event is a happy hour at Purdy Lounge, 1811 Purdy Avenue, Miami Beach, Fl. On Friday October 10, 2008 from 5:30 to 7:30. There is also a 2-for-1 drink special. Any donation from $1.00 to $500.00 will be greatly appreciated. There is a suggested contribution of $25.00. I look forward to seeing you there. The flyer is attached. Special thanks to Jeff Weiner and Mycki Ratzan, and our host committee: Francine Steelman, Steven Nullman, Daniel Harwin, Marlon Hill, Amy Weber, Marissa Altman, Jude Faccidomo, Jelani Davis, Christopher Decoste, Trelvis Randolph, Ghazal Mahdavian, and Jeff Cazeau for their help with this event.

Todd Michaels

Anonymous said...

MCCain & the GOP are low rent scum of the earth liars!!!!Thank God they have no shot this time around!

SHUMIE TIME said...

BREAKING BLOG NEWS
SHUMIE TIME BLOG SOLD FOR MILLIONS!!!!!

WHAT A BOONDOOGLE.

Anonymous said...

Hey "Shumie Times Said" at 5:11:00---this shumie nonsense is stale, boring, and self-serving. You sound like you are in middle school. Please get a life and stop the childish posts.

Anonymous said...

DAVID O. MARKUS lost his mafia trial last week.

Anonymous said...

Heaven help us if The Old Man and the Sea-u-n-t get elected!

Anonymous said...

dear rumpole; could you answer this question. I was told by my boyfriend that Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae were financial institutions embroiled in the current financial crisis in the U.S. I think that Fannie Mae was the stripper who was the girlfriend of governor long of Louisiana portrayed by the late Paul Newman in a film and that Freddie Mac was their illegitimate son. If I win I get to give my boyfriend oral sex. If he wins I have to give him oral sex. Please help!

Anonymous said...

11:34 A.M.--you miss the point. Low income does not equal low credit rating. That being said, someone making $50,000 a year has no business buying a $600,000 house (unless they have a very substantial down payment). The main problem with the mortgage mess is that many banks would give mortgages to just about anyone. Credit ratings didn't matter. Income didn't matter. Debt-to-income, who cares? Down payment, who needs it? They didn't give a damn because they would simply package the mortgage up, sell it off and pocket a tidy sum. Let someone else worry about collecting. And let's not forget interest-only, negative amortization, all those tricks--they counted on the housing bubble to just expand to keep a product viable.

It is true that a number of people took out mortgages they could not afford. And others lied on their mortgage applications. But the lenders did not have to approve many of the mortgages they did. GREED on the part of mortgage bankers and brokers is what did us in.

Anonymous said...

It is my understanding that the Shumie-Time blog was purchased by an eleven year old and his fourteen year old brother. The entire deal was capitalized by an off-shore consortium operated in Tampa.

Fake Joan Fleishman said...

Is it true that Phil R. is secretly in love with the CNBC German TV business reporter Silvia Wadhwan? Are you consumed with her Phil while you are tracking your portfolio of German bonds in the middle of the night? Does she comfort you when you panic about the precipitous decline?

Anonymous said...

I think it's pretty sweet McCain wants the govt to buy out home mortgages. That way the govt will own our homes and become the largest landowners in the USA. Hola socialism. Thank goodness Obama will win. Lesser of the two evils

Anonymous said...

9:30.......blaming the banks without considering the fault of the people who took out lines is ridiculous. The homeowner's are just as responsible as the banks.

Anonymous said...

Rumpole- please remove the post about me. People who know me know that before my very happy marriage I had a very brief, highly publicized "fling" as it were with CNBC reporter Erin Burnett. Alas, she moved to California and my work kept me here, and we just could not pull off the bi-coastal marriage bit, so the engagement ended with a very nasty incident at Miceli's in LA.

I am now happily ensconced in Coconut Grove and I do not wish to have that period of my life brought up again and again.

Thank you.

Phil R.

Fake Joan Fleishman said...

Phil R. ... be honest with the fine folks here. It was not Erin Burnett. And, it was not Miceli's in LA where the incident was.

It was clearly over soup at Mendy's on e. 72nd in the city and it was with CNBC German reporter Sylvia Wadhwan. She is the biggest reporter CNBC has now and you are just bitter. do you own the decling German DAX index and now you are having post traumatic stress issues?

Anonymous said...

I heard it was serena altschul

Anonymous said...

Rump......you should remove your, uh, I mean, Phil's, post about his prior engagement. Really.........the guy asked for a favor (which seems appropriate since there's no reason for anyone's personal life to be spilled on this site) and you post the request? That's weak as hell.

BTDT

Anonymous said...

The incident at Miceli's did not involve Phil R. It was just one of many Shumie incidents. It was quietly hushed and put to rest by the Q after an initial appearance by Yale Galanter made matters worse.

Anonymous said...

At this point McCain only wins with a time machine.

Anonymous said...

It's really sad that people choose to post about a guy's prior engagement, particularly since it obviously continues to cause him pain. Really. You guys need to get a life.

Phil's a decent guy. He doesn't deserve this. I can't understand why so many of you take such pleasure in embarassing people. Really, it's pathetic.

Keep your head up Phil. Those of us who know you don't care about this nonsense (even if we do tweak you every now and again by accusing you of being Rump!!!!).

BTDT