Sunday, October 26, 2008
NFL WEEK EIGHT
UPDATE: winning 4 of 5 today for a +345 for the day and +829 for the year. Our only loss was the Browns beating the Jags which canceled out when we won the under ( but was a -5 over all because of the vig). What did we tell you about our Fish? Nice Dolphins win!!!.
Very touching and poignant comments remembering former ASA David Stern from yesterday's post. Go read them. It will make you feel better.
The half way point of the NFL season. We're up 484 for the year, but after two losing weeks, we're hanging on.
That's why when you're down, and really need help, look inward. Go home young bettor.
We present to you, our best bet of the day and the savior of our slump:
That's right: We like the Dolphins, at home getting a point from the overrated Bills. Now that being said, the Bills are good. They have built this team the way the Dolphins only wished they had. They have a starting QB drafted in the third round. All their first and second and third round draft picks for the last three or four years are starters or play and contribute, and a few are pro-bowl picks. But they are still a 10-6 or 11-5 team and that means they have 4 or 5 losses left in them, and on the road this Sunday is one of those losses. Miami +1 for 100 units.
How bout dem Cowpokes? Who told you they were overrated? Who told you before the very first game was played that they would tank this year? Rumpole did.
That's why Rumpole says : Take those Cowboys, even money to finally straighten things out and win one at home over a Tampa Bay team that also isn't as good as everyone thinks they are. Actually this is our best bet today. Dallas even +150.
(Notice a theme here? Teams are pulled toward the mediocre, with only a few outstanding teams any year. It's called regression analysis, and it's quite complicated.
It's actually a non-linear regression model that we have constructed, and that is even more complicated than simple regression analysis.
Regression towards the mean is a less complicated form of the analysis. Basically I'm betting most NFL teams are average, and when the point spread reflects an imbalance based on the previous week's results, I'm going to take advantage of it. Thus, the Cowboys are better than even at home against the Bucs, but because they got their cowpoke butts kicked by St. Louis last week, the line does not reflect the true value of the game. (True Value of the Game, (c) Rumpole 2008, all rights reserved.)
Why I've spent hundreds of hours developing a non-linear regression analysis model for the NFL instead of stock market options, lord only knows. Maybe I'm bored trying disorderly conduct cases. )
Ok. Back to English.
The Browns go to Jacksonville to play the well rested Jaguars. Take the Jags coming off a bye week for -7 for 50. Take the under 42 for 50.
Here is one trend we're not going to buck: The Texans are on a two game win streak. The Bengals are this year's Dolphins: 0-7 and on their way to 0-8. The Texans are moving up to the mean, as they are not as bad as they started out. The Bengals just stink. When they hit 0-8 they will pull the trigger on Carson Palmer for the season and get him that surgery he needs. Houston -10 +100.
Interesting article in the NY Times (the link is below). While McCain wasn't looking, Obama put Florida in play. This election is going just how Obama's managers planned it several months ago. They are playing the game on McCain's side of the field. Instead of both candidates battling it out in swing states like Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida, Obama has attacked the republicans hard in many traditional republican states and those states are now in play.
So as we approach the final ten days until the election, McCain finds himself trying to defend territory Bush won four and eight years ago, instead of trying to win the swing states. States like New Mexico (McCain was there Saturday, and Obama showed up a few hours later), Virginia (which hasn't voted for a Democrat since LBJ in 1964) Nevada and Indiana are all in play and McCain has to solidify his base before he can compete in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, where he is behind in all three states.
For an excellent analysis of polling bias, and all the latest polls fairly interpreted, check out 538 dot com.
Go Dolphins See you tomorrow.