CHAMPIONSHIP SUNDAY

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Two great games today. One is a bit easier to pick than the other. 

Eagles at Cardinals. First ever NFC Championship game played in Arizona.  The only reason this game requires any analysis is because the Cardinals are playing at home, in a domed stadium designed to enhanced their trademark wide open offense. But lets face it folks, the Cardinals aren't even in this game if the Carolina Panthers didn't self destruct last week. I watched that Cardinal-Panther game last week and I distinctly remember the look on Cardinal Coach Ken Whisenhut's face- even he couldn't believe how bad the Panthers were playing. 

We bet against the Eagles last week and paid the price. No more. The dome and the turf keep the Cardinals in the game, but take the Eagles and lay the 3 points. Road teams were 3-1 last week, so going with the road team this year is not such a big deal.  Defense wins championships and the Eagles have a dominant defense, while the Cardinals are just lucky to be here. Eagles -3 + 300. 

The Steelers play the Ravens at home and these two teams meet for the third time this year. Third verse, same as the first (two). The Steelers are the team that has most benefited from the bye week. They got healthy when they needed to and they found their running game when they needed to.   This Steeler team is just two years removed from their last super bowl win. They have veterans who have been their and know how to win. Both these teams have great defenses, and we have said before that the Ravens are the hardest hitting defense in the NFL. But the Steelers have the best defense in the NFL and a better and more talented offense then the Ravens.

When the Ravens played the Steelers in September they knocked out three, count em, three Steeler running  backs. Ray Lewis broke the shoulder of the Steeler's first round rookie running back who had shot off his mouth prior to the game. Something about the Ravens brings out the hard hits in every team they face, and that was apparent last week as the Tennessee Titans gave it almost as hard as they got it. As a result the Ravens come out of last week beat up, tired (they haven't had a bye week since week two) and not at their best.  Playing even up the Steelers have beaten the Ravens twice this year. With the Ravens tired and hurting, this game will not be as close as everyone thinks it will be, although Ravens pride and Ray Lewis will keep this game close into the fourth quarter. 

 These two teams are primed to battle this out for years to come. And the Ravens time may well come. But not this year and not in Pittsburgh. Steelers -5 +300. 

We finished last week at 804 Joe Bidens. 

Enjoy tomorrow off, although we will be working. 

NFL WEEK FOURTEEN

We're down to 379 Parcells and counting after another losing week. 

Miami is +1 at Buffalo.  Fins playing second game indoors in two weeks. We'll take the point and the Fins +100. 

Green Bay is at Home against the Houston Texans. The Pack has lost their last two, while the Texans have won their last two. Both teams are neither as good nor as bad as their last two games indicate. The Pack is favored by six. Regression to the mean: Green Bay ends a two gam losing streak and Houston ends a two game winning streak.  Lay the 6. Pack +150. . 

Cleveland - the team many picked to win the AFC North limps into Tennessee. The Brownies start Ken Dorsey (remember him?) at QB and it goes downhill from there. Take the Titans -13.5 +125. 

LATE PICKS: 12:40 PM. 

Giants/Eagles- 44.5. Weather related under under under. +200.

Steelers/Cowpokes.  42. Weather related under under under. +200. 

FORGET ME NOT.

Henry Gustav Molaison passed away this past week. Don't remember who he is? Click here for the NY Times Obituary on the most important patient neurologists who study memory have ever had.  Due to a brain operation at age 27, Molaison lost all ability for long term memory. His affliction and the insight neurologists were able to draw from it, changed the way science views memory and the brain. His  was a remarkable yet tragic life. 

A REVERSAL OF FORTUNE

Sunny Von Bulow, in a coma since 1980, when her then  husband was accused of trying to kill her, passed away yesterday. The case was a 1980's sensation, with Claus Von Bulow initially convicted of attempting to kill his wife. Alan Dershowitz and a band of rag tag law students from Harvahrd filed an appeal on behalf of Von Bulow and won. Their efforts are detailed in the book and movie "Reversal of Fortune."   While winning the appeal was a wonderful bit of lawyering, the real story never told  was the brilliant defense mounted at the second trial in Rhode Island by one of the very best trial lawyers we have ever met: Tom Puccio of New York City.  The NY Times obit is here. 

It is sad and tragic to note that Ms. Von Bulow's children had both their parents in an irreversable coma for many years of their life. In 1983 Prince von Auersperg was in a coma due to a car accident. He passed away in 1992. 

Life is full of strange and tragic coincidences. 

William Ayers, the "domestic terrorist" linked to President elect Obama  during the election, has finally, and eloquently,  spoken out about the role he was thrust into during the election. His Op Ed piece is here. It is worth reading.

Go Dolphins. 

NFL WEEK EIGHT

UPDATE: winning 4 of 5 today for a +345 for the day and +829 for the year. Our only loss was the Browns beating the Jags which canceled out when we won the under ( but was a -5 over all because of the vig).  What did we tell you about our Fish? Nice Dolphins win!!!. 

Very touching and poignant comments remembering former ASA David Stern from yesterday's post. Go read them. It will make you feel better. 

The half way point of the NFL season. We're up 484 for the year, but after two losing weeks, we're hanging on. 

That's why when you're down, and really need help, look inward. Go home young bettor. 

We present to you, our best bet of the day and the savior of our slump:

That's right: We like the Dolphins, at home  getting a point from  the overrated Bills.  Now that being said, the Bills are good. They have built this team the way the Dolphins only wished they had. They have a starting QB drafted in the third round. All their first and second and third round draft picks for the last three or four years are starters or play and contribute, and a few are pro-bowl picks.  But they are still a 10-6 or 11-5 team and that means they have 4 or 5 losses left in them, and on the road this Sunday is one of those losses.  Miami +1  for 100 units.

How bout dem Cowpokes? Who told you they were overrated? Who told you before the very first game was played that they would tank this year? Rumpole did.

 That's why Rumpole says : Take those Cowboys, even money to finally straighten things out and win one at home over a Tampa Bay team that also isn't as good as everyone thinks they are.  Actually this is our best bet today. Dallas even +150.

 (Notice a theme here? Teams are pulled toward the mediocre, with only a few outstanding teams any year. It's called regression analysis, and it's quite complicated. 

It's actually a non-linear regression model that we have constructed, and that is even more complicated than simple regression analysis. 

Regression towards the mean is a less complicated form of the analysis. Basically I'm betting most NFL teams are average, and when the point spread reflects an imbalance based on the previous week's results, I'm going to take advantage of it.  Thus, the Cowboys are better than even at home against the Bucs, but because they got their cowpoke butts kicked by St. Louis last week, the line does not reflect the true value of the game. (True Value of the Game, (c) Rumpole 2008, all rights reserved.)

Why I've spent hundreds of hours developing a non-linear regression analysis model for the NFL instead of stock market options, lord only knows. Maybe I'm bored trying disorderly conduct cases. )

Ok. Back to English. 

The Browns go to Jacksonville to play the well rested Jaguars. Take the Jags coming off a bye week for -7 for 50. Take the under 42 for 50. 

Here is one trend we're not going to buck: The Texans are on a two game win streak. The Bengals are this year's Dolphins: 0-7 and on their way to 0-8. The Texans are moving up to the mean, as they are not as bad as they started out. The Bengals just stink. When they hit 0-8 they will pull the trigger on Carson Palmer for the season and get him that surgery he needs. Houston -10  +100.

POLITICS:

Interesting article in the NY Times (the link is below). While McCain wasn't looking, Obama put Florida in play. This election is going just how Obama's managers planned it several months ago. They are playing the game on McCain's side of the field. Instead of both candidates battling it out in swing states like Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida, Obama has attacked the republicans hard in many traditional republican states and those states are now in play. 

So as we approach the final ten days until the election, McCain finds himself trying to defend territory Bush won four and eight years ago, instead of trying to win the swing states. States like New Mexico  (McCain was there Saturday, and Obama showed up a few hours later), Virginia   (which hasn't voted for a Democrat since LBJ in 1964) Nevada  and Indiana are all in play and McCain has to solidify his base before he can compete in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, where he is behind in all three states. 

 For an excellent analysis of polling bias, and all the latest polls fairly interpreted, check out  538 dot com.

Why McCain will lose Florida.

Go Dolphins See you tomorrow.

NFL WEEL 6

We start week six up a very respectable 740.  What to do, what to do?

We like the Texans at home -3 and the under 45 against our Dolphins. Sorry Fins, it's strictly business. Texans -3 +100 and under 45 +100.  In fact, lets do an "IF" bet. IF Texans -3 (100) THEN under 45.  So, if the Texans win by more than three then our 200 gets rolled on to the under. We can only lose 120 (110 if the Texans don't cover or our 200 on the under bet, of which we won 100 and the 20 unit vig.) We can, and hopefully will, win 400. 

The Chargers at home -4.5 against the Patsies. Look for San Diego to rebound nicely +100.

Giants at Cleveland and Eagles at San Fran each have an over/under line of 43 and we like the over in each 50 units each game. 

Suicide Pool. 

Rumpole Redskins. Duh. 

Surph- Vikes. 

Rick Freedman Redskins.

MCCAIN CAMPAIGN MELTDOWN? If you read this BBC article it's almost as if McCain's campaign has melted down.  Congressman John Lewis, a leader of the Civil Rights movement from the 1960's cautioned McCain against inciting racial hatred. McCain (who has recently said Congressman Lewis was one of the men he admired most) responded by saying the accusation was "beyond the pale." McCain finds himself at rallies trying to calm crowds inflamed by his  VP pick who are screaming that Obama is a terrorist and an Arab (as if being an Arab was a bad thing.) All in all the BBC article gives the appearance of a campaign responding to fires, not controlling events.  (BTW. We would not at all be surprised to see that the Obama campaign was behind Lewis's statement and that it may have been long planned. Politics is a rough sport.)   It's sad to see this American hero undone by the right wing of his party, especially since he was one of the true Republicans that used to shun their fascist tactics. 

Make sure you read yesterday's post. 

NFL WEEK FIVE

UPDATE: DOLPHINS WIN!!!!  And the total was under. Why don't I listen to myself? I wrote at the beginning of the season to bet the under until you couldn't store any more cash. Anyway, we won our Giants bet for 75 and we won our under bet in the Denver/Tampa game (easiest bet of the day) for 150 so that is a +225 and then we lost our sucker teaser bet when the Fins went under 36. So we are 225-110 or +115 for the day and +690 for the year. 

We start week five +575, down 5 units for the last week after we correctly predicted the over in the Monday night game (when the world was saying under) but lost 5 units on the Steelers covering the spread. 

A little more gloating as we remind everyone that we were just about the only one who publicly predicated the Redskins win over the cowpokes. 

Week five is a struggle for value. 

The G men look good as seven point favourites at home. 

The 48.5 is a juicy under in the Tampa Bay/Denver game.

And what's going to be the weather here tomorrow? That 46 looks like a nice under in the Fins/Chargers game if it continues to rain.

Update:  Skies look clear

OK here goes:

75  Giants -7.

150 under 48.5 Tampa Bay/Denver

 7 point teaser: Giants pick em + Dolphins/Chargers over 36. Bet 100 to win 75. 

Suicide Pool: 

Surph: Carolina Panthers

Rumpole: Cowboys.

Rick Freedman: Panthers. 

NFL WEEK FOUR

MY GOODNESS I AM GOOD. I mean, calling a 12 point road underdog to win against "the best (achk achk) team in the NFL"- who else does that in print and in public except yours truly? I tried to tell Mr. Markus to switch his pick. He should stick to trying cases before Judge Middlebrooks, and I should stick to picking football games. 

Lost the Bungles bet. -165. Won the Under Sants +100 and WON the Redskins over the Cowpokes- +75. An anemic +10 for the week, but that's what we get for a Bungles bet. (Plus, in our defense, we did not know they were sitting Carson Palmer. ) We finish week 4 +580. 

After a nice Caymus Cabernet 2005 Special Reserve (being up 570 after three weeks helps with the price) , we tender these NFL picks for week four. 

Gotta love the battle of Ohio. McCain vs. Obama. Bungles vs. Brownies. Someone, anyone, is coming out of this game with a win. We were impressed with the Bungles last week. They are at home -4. Marvin Lewis is a much better coach than Romeo Crenel, and the Brownies are in the middle of a QB crisis, after blowing 50 million on a one year wonder.Hahahahaha.  Take the Bengals at home -4 +150.

Redskins at Cowpokes. The pokes are favored -12. We said we don't like Dallas, and we mean it. Skins on the road +12. +75.

San Fran and their (latest) wonder QB travel to the Big Easy and take on the Saints. The over is 48.5. Are you kidding me? Under -100. 

SUICIDE POOL.

David O Markus picks the Cowpokes, Goodbye David. Skins win on the road. 

(at the half, things not looking good for our federal blogger. Skins 17, Pokes 7)

FINAL: GOODBYE DAVID. Skins 26 Pokes 17. 

Rumpole: Saints. -winner

Rick Freedman: Jags.-overtime winner

Surph- "after further review the ruling is Surph picked the Jags. He is in and safe."

Now we are down to three. 

Working with a client tomorrow at their office, so I may not be able to get the suicide picks up. But your email has to arrive before the game you pick begins. Steelers/Ravens for anyone who misses Sunday for Monday night. 

NFL SUNDAY WEEK TWO

7-1 last week. Up more than the entire payroll of ROC, (422.50) is it time cash in or let it ride? 

As Sy used to say, we'll rest when we're dead. Rest in peace old friend. 

Buffalo Bills roll into Jag land and play the Jaguars in Jacksonville. Are these surprising Bills for real? The line is Jax -6, so we put  +50 on the Bills to at least keep it close, and possibly downright win the game.

NE Patriots at the J...E...T...S. A rookie QB versus Brett Favre. Really. Why even bother? Jets are home favourities -2.5. Take the JETS  +100.  One thought- all last year the talk radios were inundated with the topic could the 72 Dolphins beat the 2007 Cheaters? Well now we get to see if the evil genius is a genius or a fake. The 72 Fins and Shula went undefeated with a back-up QB (Earl Morral and not Don Strock as any Fins Fan knows) going most of the way. Can the 2008 Patriots do the same thing? Nope. 

Giants on the carpet at St. Louis. Over/Under is 42. We like the Giant D and the Giant way of playing football, which is run, run, run. +100 under 42. 

Dolphins go to the Arizona to play the Cardinals. What did we say at the start of the season? Play the Dolphins under until you can't find a place to store the cash? The Fins game was under last week, and we  will keep riding this gravy-train of offensive futility. Under 40. +50. 

Green Bay rolls into Detroit. These are two teams going different ways. We told you we liked Aaron Rodgers and the Pack, and we think they keep it up and win by more than 4 against the Lions.

Pack -4 +200.

The suicide pool is set. See yesterdays post.

Sunday at 9:01 AM Rumpole changes his pick. Something about a Seahawks team with 4 starting WRS injured makes us nervous. We go on the road with the well rested Super Bowl Champs and take the Giants. 

Rick Freedman with a last minute change to the Bucs, and Surf with a minute to spare, picks the Cardinals with an email at 3:59.