NFL CHAMPIONSHIP SUNDAY

 It's a new year. A new administration. We have new vaccines. The Virus has new strains. It is all new and mostly good. 

So why is Tom Brady back for his attempt to appear in his 53rd straight super bowl? And his opponent is Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers who career is hampered by only one super bowl appearance and win? 

In the AFC we have new QB phenom Patrick Mahomes and newer QB phenom Josh Allen. 

The Pack and the Chiefs are each favoured by three at home. Here are our picks. 

If any team can pull off an upset it is the Tampa Bay Bradys and not because of their QB. Tampa's offensive line is vastly superior to Green Bay's Defensive line. Championships are won in the trenches. Our pick is the Pack -3, but the upset of the day could be Tampa Bradys. 

The AFC game is easier. You ain't beating Mahomes at home. Period. End of sentence. Give the three. Go on margin with your stocks. Sell some Ethereum and Bit Coin. Raise capital and then call your version of 52nd Street Irwin (who if we did not mention it, sadly our long time friend and bookie and famous Vegas line setter has moved on to the big sports room in the sky over the summer due to, yes Covid) and put it all on the Chiefs. 

Some Prop bets-

IF Green Bay -3, Then KC -3. Lets say you bet 110 on the Pack to win 100.  If the Pack wins, then you roll that 100 on to KC to win 200. If the Pack loses, you lose 110. 

We also like a $500 two team Parlay Pack and KC. Parlays pay 13 to 5. So you win 1,300 if you bet 500 which is 300 more than if you just bet 500 on Green Bay and 500 on KC. 

With the weather in Green Bay we like the under 51.5. So how about a Green Bay -3 parlay with under 51.5 for $500?  And lets do a KC -3 parlay with under 51/5 Green Bay/Bradys for 500.  

And finally how about some Teasers? We know, from quantitative analysis over decades that teasers, which allow you to move lines on totals and point spreads are losing bets. A couple of rules from the quant analysis- never tease a total; never tease a college football game; never tease below zero and always try to tease below 7 and 3 points. 

Let's do a six point two team teaser that requires us to risk 120 to win 100. This of course violates the rule of teasing below zero because in this case both KC and Green Bay are favourited by three points. A six point teaser would GIVE Green Bay 3 and KC 3. What the heck, you only live once. Let's bet 1200 to win a G, teasing six points Green Bay +3 KC +3. 

Have fun.