Picking football games correctly is all about one thing: finding a trend that the public has missed and thus the line does not reflect. In our opinion, this is easier earlier in the year when opinions about teams are largely based (usually incorrectly) on the year before. Trends we missed this year: that the Packers, Cheaters and Cowpokes would be as good as they are. Trends we feasted on: that the Chargers and Aint’s were no where near as good as people thought they were. Trends that never materialized: that the 49'ers and Cardinals would tear up their divisions. Wait till next year!.
The Giants roll into Detroit where the game is listed between even and Detroit slightly favored. One trend we heard discussed this past week was the trend of teams to bounce back after a tough loss. This trend (which the Dolphins have obviously not heard about) becomes more pronounced when the team loses two games in a row and where in one of those games the opposing team scored more than 35 points. In that scenario the trend is something like 25-1 against the spread since 2000. This is because the public loses faith in the team and begins to under value that team.
No game fits that trend today, but the Giants have been on a roller coaster all season. Good enough to win the games they should win, not good enough against the elite teams of the league. That being said, the number we see here is the over/under 49. Take the under. If you can get the game at even or -2 take the Giants.
The Mighty NE Cheaters roll into Buffalo for another win on the schedule. The over/under is (for the Cheaters) a low 46 and with the Bills RB Lych out, this game could be a shootout. Take the over 46 and just for fun, throw a few chicken wings on the Bills +16. You never know.
The Dolphins play the Eagles today in Philly. Home of Rocky. Underdog Dolphins start rookie QB Beck. Is this Rumpole’s upset special of the year???? Hardly. Take the under 41 as the Philly defense keeps this game low and slow.
Arizona Cardinals roll into Cincinnati where the stumbling Bengals remain one of this season’s biggest disappointments. Marvin Lewis is too good of a coach to be stuck with this bunch of losers that has quit on him. Meanwhile in Arizona, the chant is “Nobody beats the Whiz” as rookie head coach Ken Whizenhut has taken some lemons and made some lemonade. However, this Cardinal team has some problems on offense starting with the QB. An uninspired Bengals team keeps this game under the number of 48.5.
Warning: no game jumps out at us here today. Go low and slow if you must play at all.