WELCOME TO THE OFFICIAL RICHARD E GERSTEIN JUSTICE BUILDING BLOG. THIS BLOG IS DEDICATED TO JUSTICE BUILDING RUMOR, HUMOR, AND A DISCUSSION ABOUT AND BETWEEN THE JUDGES, LAWYERS AND THE DEDICATED SUPPORT STAFF, CLERKS, COURT REPORTERS, AND CORRECTIONAL OFFICERS WHO LABOR IN THE WORLD OF MIAMI'S CRIMINAL JUSTICE. POST YOUR COMMENTS, OR SEND RUMPOLE A PRIVATE EMAIL AT HOWARDROARK21@GMAIL.COM

Sunday, November 04, 2007

GAME OF THE MILLENNIUM

Arizona rumbles into Tampa Bay in the most anticipated NFL match up of the century. And Rumpole says ….OK just kidding.


THE NEW ENGLAND CHEATERS PLAY THE DEFENDING SUPER BOWL CHAMPION
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS.

The Champs versus the Cheaters.

The Champs are playing at home and are 5.5 to 6 point underdogs.
The Colts are getting no respect despite having arguably the best QB in the game (Manning) , the best WR in the game (Harrison) , the best number two WR in the game (Reggie Wayne) and one of the best pass catching TE’s in the game (Dallas Clark).

The Cheaters have arguably the best QB in the game (pretty boy Brady), the best WR in the game (Moss), the best number two WR in the game (Stallworth) and one of the best pass catching TE’s in the game (Watson).

The Cheaters have the highest ranked offense in the NFL, and the Colts have the second or third ranked offense depending on the stats you use.

That’s why Rumpole says Colts 6 - Cheaters 3. Bank on it.

No, seriously, there is some more you need to know before making a decision.

The Colts play what is called a Cover 2 offense. Tony Dungy got his start in football as a DB with the Pittsburgh Steelers in 1979, and Coach Noll gave him his first coaching job in 1981. The old Steeler 4-3 cover two philosophy runs strong in Dungy (just as the Dark Side of the force runs strong in Coach Cheater). Cover 2 simply means the two safeties- Free Safety and Strong Safety - divide the deep part of the field in half, with each safety responsible for deep coverage on his half of the field.

The Cheaters will try and force the Colts to commit to a mismatch in coverage- having a safety cover TE Watson going deep or even better, flooding one side of the field and sending Moss in motion to try and get him single coverage with a safety. When that happens don’t expect pretty boy Brady to miss it too often.

When the Colts have the ball, they will be running Harrison deep and often, forcing the Cheaters to roll the safeties to help double Harrison- when that happens look for Manning to throw it to Reggie Wayne in single coverage. In the past the Cheaters have gambled with Ty Law working Harrison man on man, and shutting down the rest of the Colts weapons with double coverage. If the Cheaters can pull that off on Sunday, it’s going to be a long day for Peyton and his pals.

Here is the wildcard in all of this: make no mistake that Belichick built this team in the off season with one purpose in mind: to run score for score- TD for TD with the Colts. Recall that the Colts and the Cheaters had a shootout in last years AFC Championship, with the last team getting the ball scoring, which in last year’s case was the Colts. Cheater Bill had two choices- build up the defense to shut Manning down or build up the offense to run with the Colts. In this day and age where the offense has the advantage over the defense vis a vis the rules, Cheater Bill made the decision to run with the bulls and turn Brady loose.

So why aren’t we picking the Cheaters in a rout?

Two reasons: one- we really hate the Cheaters and we just don’t want to live in a world where they go 16-0; two- this is not the Super Bowl, and winning the Super Bowl is the goal. Call us crazy, but two years ago, during the Steelers 15-1 run, the Cheaters went to Pittsburgh in the regular season and were thoroughly whipped. Two months later the Cheaters returned to Pittsburgh for the AFC Championship game and were a different team, and embarrassed the Steelers at home. Did Cheater Bill (that evil genius of the dark side) hold something back in the regular season game to avoid giving the Steelers a look at all his weapons and to make them over confident in the playoffs? We wouldn’t put it past him. We reviewed some films of those two games and this much is clear- in game one the Cheaters played a basic offense and their defense in game one was entirely different then the defense in game two. In the first game they played a blitzing 4-3 and Roethlisberger picked them apart. In game two they played a cover two 3-4, and a nickel 2-4-5 and made Big Ben throw into coverage. The results speak for themselves. So will Cheater Bill be holding something back today in anticipation of another game in the playoffs against the Colts? In Cheater Bill’s mind, only the Colts stand between his team and another Super Bowl victory.

So here is the play today: the Colts are 5.5 to 6 point underdogs at home. Yet the money line is -110: meaning you have to bet 110 to win a 100. The money line is out of wack. Usually underdogs get favourable odds, something like +115, meaning you bet 100 to win 115. But in this game both teams are -110.


What does that tell you? It tells us that while the public loves the Cheaters (thus the books are forced to give the Colts points to get people to bet on them to even out the number of people betting on each team; remember that a books goal is to have an equal amount of money bet on each team, and the book scoops off 10% from the losing bets.) the books think this game is dead even. If both teams are -110, the books don’t want to give you money odds favoring the Colts which they should do with the Colts as an underdog.

That’s enough for us: we are contrarians. Whatever the public does, we do the opposite. Take the 5.5 or 6 points (since the pros believe it should be even with no points) and bet a few retainers on the Colts. Not a lot. Things could turn ugly fast for either team. But just enough to have some fun.



SUICIDE POOL:

Rumpole Picks the Tampa Bay Bucs over the Cardinals.


Tampa -3.5 is one of our picks. We also like the Under 37 in Carolina at Tennessee, Green Bay +2.5 at KC, and yes, under 56 in NE at Colts.
And just for the record, CK should have picked the Steelers at home over the Ravens. The Ravens beat the Steelers silly twice last year and this is a different team looking for revenge. We may well add the Steelers as a Monday Night pick during Monday.

CK wrote us:

Rumpole:

This is a very tough week to pick a winner. Of course, as your record shows, you are much better than me at doing this, and you might not think that it is such a hard week. At any rate, I have a hunch that this is the week that our contest will reach its end. I have narrowed my field down to three choices. The obvious choice for me (since I still have not used Pittsburgh) is Steelers over Ravens on Monday night, but I have a weird feeling about this game--it is a division match up between two teams that hate each other, and, while they definitely have offensive problems, the Raven still have a volatile defense. The game is too dicey for me. The second choice is Atlanta at home after a bye week against San Francisco, but I really don't trust Atlanta to do anything right, and I don't want to put my eight game winning streak on the Falcons shoulder/wings. The third choice is Kansas City off a bye week at home over Green Bay, and this is the game I like. I have watched Green Bay play a lot this year and can't believe that they have been able to win six games with no running game to speak of. Kansas City has an above-average defense, and with an extra week to prepare will have a good game plan ready, much as the Bears did when they played their arch-rival and beat them. Brett Favre has been relying on 8 yard cross route passes to move the Packers all year long, and it is going to catch up with him this week. Of course, maybe I am just tired of having to make a pick every week and am letting my irrational hatred for Favre and the Packers overwhelm my better judgment. Nevertheless, my pick is K.C. over Green Bay, and I can't wait to see what your pick will be. Whatever happens, it has been fun matching wits with the handicapping master of the RGJB.

16 comments:

Anonymous said...

Keep up the good work! Because I suffer from "upgradeitis", each week I improve my home theatre...new prepro...new amp...better cables, etc!

"High diddle, diddle...Rogal up the middle"!!!

Rumpole said...

Will the Dolphins manage to avoid an embarassing defeat on their bye week?

Anonymous said...

How man "come from behind" can LSU accomplish??????

Anonymous said...

The Dolphins should try to make this the "imperfect" season as a counterweight to their 1972 perfect season. At this point, they should just go for the record of losing each and every one of their games.

Anonymous said...

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Rumpole said...

oooohh CK. 1 Point game. 4th Quarter. Favre with the ball. I dunno...things looking bleek.

Rumpole said...

AND JUST LIKE THAT its over. Not with a bang, but a KC whimper, as CK lets emotion best him as (Bear fan he) he cannot pass up the opportunity to root against the Packers, and GB and Favre on the road at KC gets the job done, knocks our CK, while Rump rolls with Tampa over the Cardinals.

RUMPOLE WINNER AND CHAMPION OF BLOG'S FIRST ANNUAL SUICIDE POOL.

Anonymous said...

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

FAKE BLAKE said...

QUITE A SUNDAY FOR OUR HUMBLE RUMPOLE

1) YOU WON THE SUICIDE POOL
2) YOU WON ALL THREE GAMES YOU PICKED THAT ARE NOW OVER
3) YOU CURRENTLY HAVE THE COLTS +6 AND THE UNDER 56 AND ITS INDY 20, NE 17 INDY 20 WITH 7:50 LEFT.

RUMPOLE HOW DO YOU DO IT?

Rumpole said...

5-0 today, including winning the Suicide Pool and picking the biggest game of the century.

Now it is not as easy as it seems. It takes hard work. While Mr. Markus is reading case law and doing other frivilous things, we are in the bar, drinking, reviewing football stats, chatting with people about the game for hours on end. It takes a certain amount of dedication to be a football expert, and not everyone is willing to pay the price.

PS. The Colts kept this close without Marvin Harrison. And they gave the NFL the blueprint to beating the Cheaters. But for Peyton's uncharateristic fumble at the end of the game, the Colts win this one.

Mark my words. The Cheaters will not have a perfect season. They will be beat, and I will call the game. Hint- the Cheaters will lose at home.

Anonymous said...

5-0 deserves a nice blowjob

Coach Fakey Fakerstein said...

Rump -

Sorry to burst you bubble on my beloved Pats (having done my undergrad and JD in the Boston area, I have been a pats fan since the days that they used to LOSE to the Jets and Dolphins), but I don't think you can treat today's victory by the soon to be 16-0 Pats as giving the NFL a blueprint to anything.

Like in years past, the Pats don't blow their entire wad playing the Colts. They played a standard defense, nothing unusual -- no fancy schemes. Similarly, there was nothing unusual about the offense that they played today.

Bill keeps his secrets for beating the teams that he considers his chief playoff competition (the Colts are #1 on that list for sure) until they PLAY in the playoffs.

Thanks for the picks this season....I'm going to be buying my wife some new diamond studs for Chanukah as a result.

And when the Pats cream the Colts 41-24 in the AFC Championship this year, I promise I won't say "I told you so" (more than 5-6 times).

Anonymous said...

Rump is the man !!!!! 5-0 is not too shabby.

What is the season tally so far?

Anonymous said...

cha ching
nice payoff on the 4 team parlay for $20
thanks rump

Rumpole said...

8:24- didn't I write on the blog that the Cheaters coach Cheater Bill holds something back in regular season games against teams he thinks he will meet in the Playoffs.

2 points- If Manning doesn't fumble at the end, the Cheaters lose, which shows they can be beaten.

2- a strong running team with a terrifc defense can and will beat the cheaters. Look at their schedule and you tell me which strong running team with the number one defense in the NFL is headed for a NE match up?

The Cheaters are clearly the best team in the NFL and at the halfway point they are favourties to win the super bowl as one of the most dominating teams of all time (clearly cheating helps). But they will not go undefeated. And for that matter, for the last at least two years, the team with the best regular season record didn't win, much less even make it to, the Super Bowl.

Anonymous said...

Finally a week where a Dolphins loss does not dominate the front page. If we're lucky, we'll get two more just like it before the season ends.