You take these picks with the warning that I have cooled considerably from my earlier proficient prognostication.
Being therefore fully advised and warned, you can bet the mortgage as follows:
PATRIOTS AT COLTS.
Those of you following my picks know that I think little of the Patriots and Tom Brady.
Let me clear up one misconception: Tom Brady LOST the game last week. Troy Brown rescued his sorry butt. It was fourth down. 10 to go. Tom terrific took the snap, scrambled back, and let fly a perfect interception. Less than 2 minutes to go. Chargers up by 8. Game over. Then Troy Brown strips the ball from the DB who intercepted Brady. Belichick has a deal with the devil you know. Only he and Brady could be the recipient of such luck. Anyway, Mr. Perfect wasn’t so perfect, but he won anyway.
Colts are riding a resurgent defense. Their coach Tony Dungy is a former Defensive Back. Defense is his specialty. And Peyton Manning is due. Last year, but for a similar bit of the kind of bad luck the Chargers had last week, the Colts would be defending Super Bowl Champs.
The book on Manning is clear. Blitz him. Don’t give him time to breath, much less throw.
That is why-now remember I said this- Belichick- the evil genius, has designed a defense for tomorrow THAT WILL NOT BLITZ MANNING. Watch. The beauty of Belichick is that his teams do exactly the last thing you expect them to do, and they do it well. The Patriots will rush 2 or 3, drop everyone else into coverage, and make Manning throw into coverage. Bet on it. Also, the book on the Colts was to run against them. So....the Patriots will throw...and throw...and throw. Belichick has designed an offense that will have the Patriots throwing out of running sets in obvious running situations. He is an eveil genuis and needs to be stopped.
And yet, we can’t bring ourselves to pick the Pats. The Colts are giving 3. I think the Colts will win. They have the Patriots kicker from all those Super Bowl: Vinateri. And that will be the difference. Colts by 3. So if you can’t find it at -2/1 you’re gonna have to tease the points. And everyone knows teasers are sucker bets.
SAINTS AT BEARS.
Longtime and careful readers also know my disdain for the Bears. Didn’t we stun the world earlier this years when we told you the awful Dolphins would beat the undefeated Bears. And yet, defense wins Championships. It’s going to be 20 degrees in Chi town tomorrow. The coldest weather the Saints have played in this year is 50.
I don’t like either of these two teams. Your Super Bowl winner is playing in the other game.
The Bears are -6. Defense wins championships. The Saints have the better ground game; the Saints have the better QB; the Saints have better WR's; special teams is even with a slight edge to the Bears. Who will win? I have no idea. I can't figure this game out. The stats say take the cold weather home team, with a better defense, in a Championship game. The Stats say Da Bears...and yet how many home AFC cahmpionship games did the Steelers loose in the 90's and 2000's? 4.
Here’s what you do: lay 11-10, buy a two team teaser: each team gets 6 points. The Colts are teased to +3. and the Bears become even. That’s the play today. But just a coupla bucks...as anything can, and probably will happen.
See You at the Colts/ Bears Super Bowl.
PS: Don't forget to vote in the NEW Special Prosecutor Poll....only on the REGJB Blog.
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