Here we are, down to three football games for 2024. Two will be played on Championship Sunday and the rule for the day is to keep emotion out of your selections.
KC at Baltimore. We have a visceral dislike of both teams. We are tired of seeing Mahomes in the Super Bowl, and tired of seeing his TE's girlfriend jumping around in luxury boxes. We can quote from Blackstone, but we cannot tell you one song Ms. Swift has sung. Nor do we ever care to know. We have other issues with the Ravens which go back a long time. Suffice to say we cannot bring ourselves to root for either team.
But here is our advice. The smart money- the professional money- the unemotional money- went on the Ravens as soon as the line was posted as Ravens -3. It was bet up to 4, at which point the chatter was how can you not take KC and Mahomes in an AFC Championship game and 4 points? And the answer is that he doesn't win all his big games. Ask Tampa Bay and Brady. The Raven played the 49ers a few weeks ago when San Fran was being called the best team in the NFL and the Ravens beat them like E. Jean Carrol suing Trump. It was a total rout.
The weather will be bad, so the under 44.5 is enticing as well as the under 214.5 passing yards for Jackson. The Ravens have a better defense and a better run game, so if they get a lead, they will run and Jackson's passing yards will be held down. Fun game for sure, we just cannot root for either team. But the pick is Ravens -4 hosting their first ever AFC championship game.
Lions at 49ers. This is an easier game to pick. All good things must come to an end, and that includes the Lions magical run. San Fran is the better team, and they are especially better outside. The numbers for Goff, the Lions QB playing outside are dismal this year.
Jared Goff in a dome: 104.0 rating, 69% completions, 7.9 yds per pass, 23 TD-8 INT; Jared Goff outdoors: 87.9 rating, 64.5%, 7.0 yds per pass, 7 TD, 4 INT Jared Goff on grass: 82.0 rating, 63.6% completion, 6.5 yds per pass, 5 TD, 4 INT
The Lions are a team with a future, but the 49ers are a team for today. The are back in the NFC championship for the second year in a row, this time with their QB. They have the best runner in football with McCafferty, and they are playing at home. San Fran -7 and over 52 and take the over passing yards for both QBs- 256 for Goff and 276.5 for Purdy.
We would like to see the Lions win; we just do not think they will.
Have fun and bet it all...you can always make more money.