WELCOME TO THE OFFICIAL RICHARD E GERSTEIN JUSTICE BUILDING BLOG. THIS BLOG IS DEDICATED TO JUSTICE BUILDING RUMOR, HUMOR, AND A DISCUSSION ABOUT AND BETWEEN THE JUDGES, LAWYERS AND THE DEDICATED SUPPORT STAFF, CLERKS, COURT REPORTERS, AND CORRECTIONAL OFFICERS WHO LABOR IN THE WORLD OF MIAMI'S CRIMINAL JUSTICE. THIS BLOG HAS BEEN CALLED "THE DEFINITIVE BLOG ON MIAMI CRIMINAL LAW" BY THE NY TIMES, THE WASHINGTON POST, THE POPE, AND DONALD TRUMP WHO ALSO ONCE SAID IT WAS "REALLY GREAT". POST YOUR COMMENTS, OR SEND RUMPOLE A PRIVATE EMAIL AT HOWARDROARK21@GMAIL.COM

Monday, August 24, 2015

BLACK MONDAY 2015

"Bears make money, Bulls make money, pigs get kicked in the head."
Rumpole, in a speech on October 12, 1987, exactly one week before Black Monday, October 19, 1987, when the stock market lost 22.6% of its value, the largest one day financial  loss in US history. 

Our email in box is flooded with panicky investors seeking our advice. 

It's complicated. 

This correction (it's far from a crash) was bound to happen. 
The market was overvalued under any rational view of stocks. And it was thin, meaning when it rose, it only a few favorite stocks brought up the averages. 

What to do? 

First. Don't panic. 
Second, if you can, be a contrarian. 

If you have stocks, and don't need the money for the next few months, hang on to them. Don't sell into the panic. 

Second, if you had money a few weeks ago and were looking for a stock who had a PE under 15, good luck. 
Now there are many very good stocks at a reasonable value. 

Third. Today was not the end of the panic selling or bad down days. There will be more to come, unless the Fed makes an announcement postponing any rate hike in September. 

There will be more days of whip-saw stock moves, short covering, and panic selling. 
But there are good companies and good values out there. 

There is no systemic risk to the economy, like there was in 2008 when banks were failing, credit dried up, and the economy teetered on an abyss. There is nothing like that out there that we can see. 

But there is danger on the horizon. 

China is worse than we know, because we cannot trust China's numbers on its economy. (For those of you who received my email on YANG-which shorts the Chinese markets, when it was 70 -it closed at 141 today- you're welcome. Take your profits and get out. It's a weird fund, and you never fight the Fed, even the Chinese Fed.) 

Small, regional oil companies will fail as Saudi Arabia refuses to stop pumping oil at record levels, driving prices even further. 

As markets roil, overseas investors seek refuge in the dollar. A strong dollar hurts US companies that do business overseas.

So there is a lot to worry about. 

But companies like Cisco, Clorox, Apple (under 100) Disney, General Mills, Pepsico, Bank of America (a cash machine),CVS, Home Depot,  and others are good companies that will retain their value and will bounce back. 

There are two things you can be certain of: 
first, the market will come back. 
Second, nobody, and we mean nobody can call the bottom of a market, or the top. We often say we can't buy at the bottom or sell at the top but we'll take the middle 80% every time. 

Don't panic. It will be ok. 

HR. 



16 comments:

Anonymous said...

Rumpole ... GREAT ANALYSIS! Thank you.

Anonymous said...

Zzzzzzzzxzzzzzzzzzzzz

Anonymous said...

How does someone get on your email list? Just started investing and can use some tips.

the trialmaster said...

Hang on Sloppy...Hang on

Anonymous said...

In my 25 years working at reg I have to see anyone as horrible as this one particular judge. FUCK IT, I'M just going to come out and say it. The worst judge on the criminal bench IS BETTY CAPOTE she is a horrible judge and should be removed.

Anonymous said...

Wow you got that one right but no one is doing a Damn thing about it. Slomy does nothing, Berdy even less. She kicks defendants out for being late 5 minutes and issues bench warrants. Oh she does so much bad to people. Refused to allow a np to a guy who came to court with a good license and cop wasn't even there. It's about time someone started talking about this poor excuse for a judge. But BERDY and SLOMY are too political to do what they should and report her to the JQC. They just pretend nothing is happening and keep ignoring it. Well that's how bad judges stay in Power for so long. If the powers to be don't do anything about it they are just as guilty and violating their oath of office too.

Anonymous said...

Yep. I thought I was just on time and the bailiff wouldn't let me in. 2 hours later her big BaI life came out and I was told I had to fax in my reason for being late at no time was I told I had a bench warrant. I faxed called, called, faxed and couldn't get a court date then I got arrested for the bench warrant when I was riding with my gurlfriend to a party, I wasn't even driving. My cuz, is an attorney and he got me help but she's a bad person.

Anonymous said...

Rumpole .... I am going in and buying Apple, Netflix, Facebook and Amazon in the morning to average down.

You like it?

Anonymous said...

After a night of degustating exquisite gourmet delicacies and imbibing excellent distilled spirits at The REN (a venue), I came home to read this fine blog and made a tidy profit with Rumpole's insightful stock market tips. Thank you, sir!

Anonymous said...

All this stockmarket volatility proves how moronic the Republican idea of privatizing social security is. This particular moronic idea has plenty of company with other GOP moronic ideas--global warming is a hoax, gay marriage is bad etc

Claude Erskine - Browne said...

For some reason judges mow think they can control who comes in to the courtroom or she they come in. Reminder to those still in Black Robes: Courts are open to the public, Judges have very little legal ability to close their courtroom, especially in Florida with Government in the Sunshine. Reminder, courts are part of the government and what happens in court is public, even kids/ children can not be excluded, just because you the Judge don't think kids belong in court is not a legal reason to exclude kids or the public. See the Florida Constitution, A1, section 16 , 21& 24

Anonymous said...

Go short on REN. It's the new shumie. Yeesh.

Anonymous said...

How can a judge fail to allow the state to nolle prosse? If the state nolle prosses a case, there is no case. The judge has no part in it.

Anonymous said...

Does anyone have anything nice to say about Judge Capote?

Anonymous said...

Judge Capote is awful disgusting and one of the worst examples of a judge that has ever existed. She is abusive, rude, mean, and just plain inhumane and inconsiderate not to mention arrogant. She is nothing like the prosecutor we knew back then. She got the worst case of black robeitist I've ever seen. She's worse than Brenan, Serafin, Newman, And Miller all put together in one person.

Anonymous said...

OMG! I didn't realize she was that bad; however, I've found that her staff is wonderful, knowledgeable, & very efficient.

Do you believe she's on some sort of power trip now being a judge?