Sunday, December 14, 2008
NFL WEEK FIFTEEN
UPDATE: We told you the Fins would win and we told you the Fins would not cover. And we told you that the Texans would hand the Titans their second loss of the season. Not bad. Not bad at all. And we won the Carolina under pick. We finish the day up 150 (2-0 on the picks) and +989 for the year.
The big news down here is that the Dolphins are playing a meaningful game in Mid December. The Fins are favored by 7 points. The Fins have been an awful home favorite this year, 2-4 against the spread and losers of their last three against the spread at home. We think the trend continues, the Fins win but may not cover. San Fran has some injury issues, so just pop open a cold one and cheer on the Fins, but stay away from the game for money purposes.
We started the week up 839 Blagojevich's.
Denver travels to Carolina where the Panthers are 9 point favorites. But we like the under 48 here. That number has creeped up this week, meaning the initial money was on the over. Be that as it may, we think the Broncos are overrated and the Panthers have a decent defense that keeps this game under. +100 under 48.
The Titans go to Houston where the Texans are three point home dogs. Something tells us this is a trap game for the Titans. First of all Kerry Collins is coming down to earth real soon when he meets a real defense (The Steelers or the Ravens) in the playoffs. That being said, Titan coach Jeff Fisher is not just the longest serving coach in the NFL, he is one of the best. We see the Titans losing the AFC Championship game, but that analysis is for another today. Today the Titans stumble in a fairly meaningless game against the Texans. Houston +3 +50.
We're keeping our eye on the Eagles/Browns Monday Night Football match up. The question is how high the line goes and whether we feel comfortable saying the Eagles will cover.
Speaking of the Browns, they were everyone's pre-season darlings. They stink. Their coach is the first to be fired. Unfortunately, Marvin Lewis, a really decent guy and a great defensive coach, will be fired by the Bengals the day after the season is over as well. Not even Lewis could bring discipline and success to that mess of a franchise.
Here's something to think about: Name the number one scoring offense over the last eight weeks? Cowpokes? Ha. San Diego Super Chargers? Nope. High flying Falcons? No way.
It's your AFC North second place Baltimore Ravens led by Joe Flacco and O Coordinator Cam Cameron. Remember Cam Dol-fans?
The o/u line in the Steeler/Ravens shootout is 33. Huh? The Steelers can't run, and the Raven can pass. Why so low? Because both sets of coaches know that a defensive turnover can turn the game around. So the pros expect the "Mindset" of the teams to be conservative. But what if one coach sees the trend and the expectations and decides to mix things up? What if the Steelers open with a 50 yard bomb to Nate Washington and the Raven respond with a flea-flicker when they get the ball? This game could go way over- or it could end 10-7. We sorta, kinda, maybe like the over under because we're basically contrarians. However, when the bookies are practically begging you to go over- and 33 is about a low a number as you will see in a professional game, you have to be wary. Conversely, and counter-intuitively, if the number was 39-40, we would go on the over number big time.
Just a sneak peak into our thought process.