Here's how we've paid for our boat: identify a public trend- identify a false public trend- and then take their money. In other words, find a team everyone thinks will be good, but you believe otherwise, or find a team that everyone thinks will be bad but you think will outperform the spread, and take your best shot. Last year the world thought the Chargers could not lose. We bet otherwise and cleaned up early on.
This year, the Cowpokes are everybody's pick. We think not. This year the Dolphins are coming off a 1-99 season. But we like their defense to keep games close, and thus we like the under.
We begin the year a healthy +125 as the Giants took care of business while their defense kept the game under. Sometimes this betting stuff is just too easy. (Now we just guaranteed a losing season. Hubris. Will we ever learn?)
So speaking of our beloved Fins, the NY Favres' Jet into town to take on the Miami Dolphins, ver. Tuna 1.0. The J...E...T...S are three point favorites. We like the Jets to make the playoffs this year, and the Jets have the superior offense so take the Jets -3 (+150). The o/u is an anemic 36. It was 39 earlier in the week and that was the time to lock in the under, which rest assured we did to the tune of a nice criminal fee. The weather looks good for game time, so avoid the bet unless you can get under 39.
Da Bears go to Indy for an old fashion whuppin, and Peyton and company oblige, by covering the 9. (+150)
Seattle Seahawks (pay attention) :one of the trends we like is this year are the Seahawks being overrated. A perennial playoff team, this year they tank. This is coach Mike Holmgren's last year, and if you look at the record of teams with lame duck coaches, it's not good. Plus the team has aged and not replaced star players namely RB Shaun Alexander.
The Hawks go to Buffalo for some wings and to play the Bills. The line is even. How many times a year can you take the home team and not have to lay points? Not many. The Bills have a lot to prove this year, and we're not hoping on the bandwagon yet, but it's ok to grab a ride on the sideboard for this game. Take the Bills even up (+100).
We like to give one upset, and we think we have a nice one: Tennessee Titans over Jaguars. The Money line is Titans +135. Tennessee is a home dog, getting three points, and that's a nice play. But we like eschewing (word of the day? guys?) the points here and laying 100 to win 135 that Tennessee will beat the Jags outright. The Titans have a very solid running game to compliment Vince Young who has a whole year and a second training camp under his belt. Plus the Titans have an underrated D. We think the Jags will be there at the end of the season, but they run into something they aren't expecting today. Titan Coach Jeff Fisher is the longest serving coach in the league. He's also the very best coach no one talks about. The Titans pull the upset today. In Fact Rumpole plunks down 50 units to win 67.50.
BECAUSE WE NEVER LEARN:
Proposition bets are for suckers. Give us a lolipop. This is for fun only. Here's a couple of teasers to play, if like us, you like to watch six games at a time on the LCD/HDTV.
Two team teasers- you lay 11 to win 10 and you add six points to each team you pick:
Indy -3 (the line is -9, but you tease is down to 3 by adding 6 points) AND Chargers
(-4) against the Panthers. So to win this teaser, the Colts have to win by 3 1/2 and the Chargers have to win 4/12. Have fun.
Some games just to enjoy: We'll be watching the Cowboys/Browns game very closely. These are two teams we think are overrated and we want to see how they play.
The Titans/Jags game should be very competitive as will the Green Bay/Vikes game. We like the Pack and we think Aaron Rodgers will do just fine as the new QB in Green Bay.
And because what's a football game without a little presidential politics, Rumpole devotes a little blurb every Sunday to the current electoral college: We have Obama at 243 likely electoral votes, and McCain at 216, including Florida. We have Michigan and Ohio as too close to call. If Obama wins those states, he's the President. If McCain wins those two states he still needs to pick of three of four of our too close to calls: Virginia, Nevada, Colorado, or Missouri. It remains to be seen just how much Palin rallied the conservative base for McCain. The Presidency was won in Southern Ohio four years ago when that base handed Bush the state and the presidency. Southern Ohio is the battleground of all battlegrounds in this election. It should be very interesting. Stay tuned.
See You In Court Monday, and Broward has announced that if the Ike draws near, they will remain open and require all clients and
attorneys to check in with the clerk, before going home.