Let us get this right out of the way. The Kansas City Chiefs should win the game. They are the better team with the better quarterback. They are well coached and they are blistering fast on offense and defense. Yes they have some holes, and Tampa might, just might be able to exploit those issues. The largest problem for KC is that their offensive line is decimated. It is a patchwork of replacement players, and in the battle between the Bucs' D-Line and KC's O-line, give the edge to Tampa. Ditto the running game. But that is where it ends. KC has the better secondary, the better wide receivers and currently the best quarterback in the game. If you want a safe bet, take KC -3. KC Should win by between 5-10 points.
Which is why we are betting Tampa and the money line +140. Bet a hundred on a QB making his unprecedented tenth! super bowl appearance to win 140 sounds like a fun way to spend a Sunday evening. Throw in that we really like Tampa Coach Bruce Arians and Offensive Coordinator Lord Byron Leftwich, and we are happy rooting for an upset, despite the cheater leading the Bucs. The whole "Lion in winter" story line has always been appealing to us.
Now let's get to the real fun. Here are the proposition bets we like:
Brady throwing over 295.5 yards: -115. Brady has bought into the Arian's concept of the deep ball this season. Lay the 115 to win 100.
Chief's TE Travis Kelce scoring a TD: -162. It is a lot of vig to give, but he is a fav target of Mahomes.
Over 2.5 players to attempt a pass: +165. You're betting someone other than Brady or Mahomes tosses the pigskin just once. This is a fun one to root for and have 100 bucks on.
First scoring play: Bucs field goal +430; KC Field Goal +420. 1,000 on Tampa returns 4,300 (4.3 to 1). That would pay for some nice Covid stay-at-home wines.
First turnover will be a fumble +140, interception -160. In a pass intensive game we love the INT bet- lay the 160 to win 100.
First Half Tampa +2 1/2. KC is a classic slow starter and a great come from behind team. Brady knows the value of a strong start. Take the Bucs +2.5 for the first half.
First player to score a TD- It is time for Antonio Brown to pay off for the Bucs. Brady asked that he be signed by Tampa and this sweet 20-1 bet pays a cool 2K for a hundred dollar wager. TB to AB for 2k.
KC total rushing yards 9.5 yards (-110) versus the final round score of golfer Xander Schauffele on Sunday at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. KC runs for about 95 yards a game. Schauffele has averaged 68.5 on the tour this year. So even subtracting 9.5 yards from KC's total rush yards, the Chiefs should rush for more yards than Schauffele's final score unless Tampa shuts down KC's running game and Schauffele implodes. Neither result is likely. Lay 110 to win a hundred KC's running game tops the golfer. UPDATE- Schauffele shot a 69. So now the bet is will the Chiefs rush for more than 69 yards after 9.5 yards are deduced from their final total?
Total first half points vs total points for NBA back to back MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo's in the Bucks v. Cavs game. The line says the first half total should be between 27-28 points. GA has been averaging 28 points a game this year. Throw out one or two outlier low scoring games and he is averaging 30 a game. We think the first half will be tight. Take GA -115 over the first half total.
Trump impeachments vs. Mahomes' Super Bowl MVP awards through 2025. Trump has already been impeached twice. Mahomes has one MVP. For Mahomes to win this bet, he will have to win the MVP today and return to the Super Bowl again before 2025 AND win a third MVP. Take Trump -160 and his two impeachments over Mahomes SB MVP totals before 2025 +210. (Note this is a Rumpole bet. No one else we know has this prop bet.)
Other Rumpole Prop Bets:
Number of Justice Building trials before May 1, 2021, vs. number of TD passes Mahomes throws today. If, like us, you think the new strain of covid will hit harder before we are all vaccinated, then take Mahomes. But remember that our new CJ is committed to starting jury trials as soon as safely ("Sayfiely"?) possible. Mahomes -180 v. Sayfie +120. Our pick is Mahomes.
Days until it is formally announced Judge De La O is the new chief administrative Judge for the REGJB vs. longest FG yardage minus shortest FG yardage. So lets say the longest field goal is 50 yards, and the shortest field goal is 20. 50-20=30. Will De La O be named new admin Judge for the REGJB over or under the longest FG- shortest FG? Over +125, Under-160. We think Under. We think it will be a very short time before De La O is the new CJ for the criminal division. If this has already occurred then the bet is off the board.
Number of total TDs (run or passes) +175 vs. number of PCA opinions released by the 3rd DCA this Wednesday (-120). The 3rd DCA is the favorite to PCA more cases than the total number of TDs scored in the super bowl.
COIN TOSS
And of course our dead-lock-solid- never lose heads or tails bet. Tails has won 7 of the last 8 super bowls and that matters not. Coins have no memory. The wind speed at the time of the flip (approximately 4mph), the relative humidity, the number of anticipated rotations of the coin, and the relative strength of the coin-flipper (RSCF) all have been factored into our patented super bowl coin flip simulation software (SCFSS), our calculation of the Geodesic Deviation of the longitude and latitude of Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, and after roughly 5.9 million simulation runs of the coin flip, we are fairly sure that the coin will land......... _______ (tune in before the flip for the answer).
TAILS
Super Bowl Sunday 2022.
ReplyDeleteNFL MVP Deshaun Watson completed a magic season for his new team the Miami Dolphins, winning the NFL MVP award the night before the Super Bowl, and then being the MVP of the Super Bowl as his new team beat Tom Brady and the reigning NFL Champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers 49-42, with Watson throwing a 42 yard bomb to his backup Ryan Fitzpatick in overtime. The Dolphins, who completed a near perfect regular season at 15-1, losing only to the interstate rival Jacksonville Jaguars in the last game of the season, pulled off the miraculous play with a bit of trickery. All season long the Dolphins employed at times the 2QB offense, with Fitzpatrick always taking the snap at Qb. At times Fitzpatrick would hand the ball off to Watson who lined up as a running back. At other times he would pitch it to Watson who then had the option to pass or run. Twice in a epic comeback against division rival Buffalo in the playoffs, Fitzpatrick would throw the ball to Watson who ran a route as wide receiver. The Dolphins credited falling behind 21-0 to the Bills in their first playoff game as a wake-up call for the remainder of the playoffs.
With the game tied at 42 and the Dolphin Defense intercepting a potential Tom Brady super-bowl winning TD pass in the end zone, the Dolphins marched to the 48 yard line before the drive stalled out at third and two.
Coach Brian Flores called the play that he had sat on all season and which will now go down in Dolphins lore- "Run Fitzmagic!" came the command in Fitzpatick's headset.
With Fitzpatrick taking the snap as Watson went in motion, the aging QB flipped the ball to the NFL MVP who was running a jet-sweep left to right. Then Fitzpatrick, who would hardly ever be called speedy ran to the left and down the field, wide open as Watson stopped and shouldered the ball for a throw. Seeing his backup at the fifteen yard line with no defenders around him, Watson lasered a pass which bounced off of Fitzpatrick's chest and up into the air for a moment before the veteran QB scooped the ball in and lumbered into the end zone and then was mobbed by his delirious teammates.
"I give them all the credit" said Tom Brady who was making his eleventh and last super bowl appearance and used his post game interview to announce his retirement. "They never gave up and they made the play at the end and we didn't and it is as simple as that. I had a great career and have no regrets."
The Dolphins, who pulled off the blockbuster trade for Watson just before the draft, won the super bowl for the first time since 1974. "It's been a while" said Coach Flores, "for all those Dolphin fans who remember the old glory days, we are starting our new glory days now." The Dolphins who sent their QB Tua and two first round and two second round draft picks to the Texans had the number one defense in the NFL never surrendering more than 20 points during the regular season before Buffalo scored 28 in a first round loss, and the Brady led Bucs scored 42. In the AFC championship game against the KC Chiefs the Dolphins racked up their record ninth shutout of the season winning 34-0 and setting the stage for Tom Brady's retirement super bowl.
"This has been a dream season" said Watson while his counterpart Fitzpatrick sprayed him with champagne. "This is why I came to Miami."
ReplyDeleteThat was an Ugly game, if you are a Chiefs fan. Props to Rump who bet on the winning team, the Tampa Bay Bucs, and called it like he has done all year long. He's not much of a Prop better (3-7 for the Super Bowl to go along with 0-5 in the Championship Round) but Prop bets are for suckers - just ask Vegas how the public fairs on Prop bets; trust me it ain't good.
Rump, tough season over all for you. You were 42-45 on all of your straight up, spread, and over/under picks for the year. But at least you have the guts to put your money where your mouth is. (PS - Xander Schauffele actually shot even par 71 and lost the tournament by one stroke to Brooks Koepka).