TOO CLOSE TO CALL

UPDATE 7:20 am: With 92% of the vote counted in Wisconsin, Biden's lead is expanding and we feel secure in our call that he wins Wisconsin. If he doesn't win Wisconsin, Biden  can't win the presidency without flipping Georgia.  

Also- not that it matters, but Biden will win the popular vote. 

Once you wake up Wednesday morning and come to our fair blog, the headline is "Too Close To Call."

The second headline is that the President repeated his performance in 2016, which is this- voters, mostly high-school educated, disaffected, and white who live in rural areas of battleground states and are rarely polled- turned out in force for Donald Trump. Except in Florida, where Cuban Hispanic voters abandoned the Democratic party and responded to allegations that Joe Biden was a socialist. 

Here is our electoral map scenarios. 

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

SCENARIO ONE BIDEN TAKES NEVADA. 

Nevada is Clark County and then tumbleweeds and rattlesnakes everywhere else. In Clark with 84% of the vote counted at 6:20 am, Biden has 84% of the vote with 800,000 votes cast. Biden wins Nevada. 

He now needs Michigan OR Pennsylvania to get to 270. Picking up the one undecided electoral vote in Maine will also help Biden. Trump responds by challenging the vote in Nevada where there are allegations of fraud and late voting.  In this scenario Biden barely loses Georgia. Georgia will be close but Biden is about 50,000 in the hole that we do not see him making up after the Democratic areas are counted. 

SCENARIO TWO  BIDEN WINS MICHIGAN AND NEVADA 

As we write this, Biden is winning Wayne County by 20%. 48% of the vote is counted with 460,00 votes counted and Trump in the lead in the State by 190,000 votes. So assume Biden nets an additional 150,000 votes, it is not enough. In the other counties, Trump will net 30,000. So Biden is down 70,000 votes. Enter the Absentee ballots in Michigan. Uhho... Can you spell "Lawsuit" Al Gore? 15% of the Michigan absentee ballots have been counted. Biden leads 60-40, with one million votes counted. So if the trend continues even with Biden up 55-45, Biden wins Michigan. But he needs the absentee ballots to win. If he does, he is POTUS 46. 

SCENARIO THREE BIDEN WINS PENNSYLVANIA. VERY UNLIKELY

Trump is up 610,000 votes with 75% counted. Philadelphia is the big Biden prize. He is winning 75-25% with 55% counted of the 460,000 votes. So assume another 420,000 votes are counted and Biden wins 75% of those- Biden nets 220,000. Not enough. The remaining largest counties like Allegheny (Pittsburgh) and Delaware and Montgomery, they have all counted around 75% of their votes and Biden generally leads by 9-10%. We did the math and it does not appear to be enough. Biden will not win Pennsylvania. But it does not matter as long as Joe wins Michigan and Nevada. 

SCEARIO FOUR. TRUMP MAINTAINS LEADS IN PENNSYLVANIA AND MICHIGAN. Then it is over Johnny. Four more years of MAGA

Wildcard. If your head is hurting like ours is, then don't even try the math in Georgia. But this much we know, Biden is down but could net at least an additional 120,000 votes which is just barely enough to throw the State to Joe. In our view, it is all coming down to Michigan, Nevada and potentially Georgia. Put another way, Biden actually has a better path to winning Georgia then he does Pennsylvania. Trump's lawsuit in Pennsylvania does not matter. But the lawsuit in Nevada does. This assumes that Biden's lead in Wisconsin is safe. When you roll it all back, it is Biden flipping Arizona and Wisconsin and Michigan  from 2020 and holding Nevada that gave him a non-Pennsylvania path to the presidency.

Meanwhile the Hialeah school board race has the nation transfixed. More on this shortly.