SUPER BOWL XLVIII

Seattle's number one ranked defense takes on Denver's number one ranked offense in tonight's super bowl 48. This is the first time in 23 years the #1 defense is playing the #1 offense. 

Going inside the numbers:
The Seahawks defense gives up 14.9 points per game ( 9 points better than the league average of 24 ppg).  
The Broncos Offense scores 37.9 points per game (14.5 points better than the league average of 23 ppg). 
The Broncos scored the most points in the league this year (606) and gained the most yards (6,317).
The Seahawks defense allowed the fewest points (213) and the fewest yards (4,378).
The Broncos have the highest scoring offense to ever reach the super bowl.

In prior super bowl match-ups, the team with the number 1 defense that appeared in the super bowl won more than the team with the number 1 offense (this is in games where either the #1 offense or the #1 defensive team appeared, not in match-ups of #1's). In 1991, the last matchup of number ones,  the NY Giants (#1 defense) defeated the Buffalo Bills (#1 offense) 20-19. 

So who wins this game? 
Easy. 
The Denver Broncos.  Why? DEFENSE. DENVER'S DEFENSE. 

The team with the best rushing defense has won 37 of the last 47 super bowls. Seattle gave up 107 rushing yards this year. Denver's defense also gave up 107 rushing yards this year. Denver can stop the run. Seattle lives by the run. With the rushing offensive neutralized, the game comes down to the passing offense, and at that point, the game is over and you can turn to watching ice skating, because Peyton Manning (this year's MVP with 49 of 50 votes) is going to carve up Seattle's vaunted secondary like a piece of Seattle sashimi. It will not be close. 

SUPER BOWL PROP PLAYS:

Denver is -3. Mortgage the house on Peyton Manning having two weeks to prepare for a defense (albeit a great defense). The rules of the current NFL favor the offense. Denver covers by a mile. 

Over/Under. The line opened at 47. 70% of the money came in on under and the line moved to 48. No worries. Over. Denver 38 Seattle 17. 

Time Renee Fleming takes to sing the national anthem vs. Peyton Manning passing yards in second half:
Renee Fleming time:  -120
Peyton Manning passing yards second half: -120 (bet 120 to win 100). 
The over/under on the time it takes Fleming to sing the anthem is 2 minutes 25 seconds (145 seconds). The books are great on this number. Usually within a half a second. So assume Fleming sings the anthem in 145 second. Will Manning pass for more than 145 yards in the second half? You betcha. While we don't expect the game to be close, it will remain close through the third quarter (say 20-10) before Manning decides it's time to cement his legacy as a top three all time great QB. 

Winning Margin: 
Since we know the score will be 38-17 with Denver winning by 21, you can get  +1000 (100 to win 1000 or 10 to 1) on Denver winning by 21. Put down $500 on this and you can take your 5K winnings on a Vegas trip in the spring. 

First half spread: Denver is -.5 points. Meaning if you think the Broncos will be in the lead by the end of the first half (they will) place this bet: -120 (bet 120 to win 100). Perhaps the best bet of the game. 

And of course, the lock of the game: the coin toss. Heads. 

Enjoy the game. We WON'T be watching. Duty calls. 

See you in court.