Four undefeated teams play today. The last time four undefeated teams went into week five of an NFL season? Glad you asked. It was October 13, 1968- forty five years ago. This week all four undefeated teams are on the road.
In our survivor pool the sweet 16 remain, while 15 watch from the sidelines and rue their choices this year while sadly muttering "wait till next year." The hot picks this week are the Falcons over the Jets and the Rams over the visiting and winless Jaguars.
Fantasy Football wise, last week it was the matchup of the two blog owners as Rumpole at 2-1 took on DOM at 1-2. When the dust settled, our two teams led the league in scoring for the week, but DOM, with the help of the Dolphins on MNF squeaked out a 129-126 win.
Today, before we get into our picks, recall at the beginning of the season we told you we liked the USA over Somalia, on the road, -13.
Today, this is a tough week. Will this be the week the Cowboys player above themselves and the Broncos play below themselves? The boys are a TD home dog. Are the Chargers, who (sorry David Ovalle) have disappointed for so many years-now the real deal? Can the Bengals bounce back at home as a one point dog against the visiting cheaters?
Can the Fins bounce back at home and are the Ravens as bad as they seemed against the Bills?
OK, applying out revert to the mean theory of picking ( (c) Rumpole, 2010) * take the Cowboys at home +7 to keep it close against the best team in football- the Broncos (WIN). Take the Ravens +3 (WIN) and the over 43 (WIN) in Miami, but watch the weather on the over- it may rain. Take the Bengals +1 (WIN) at home to bounce back and give the cheaters their first loss and take the Colts +2 (WIN) at home to bounce back over the very tough defense of the Seahawks. Take the Chargers -5 1/2 over the Raiders. For fun and profit only.
It's a beautiful fall weekend, and unless you're on a deadline with the 11th circuit like we are, get out and enjoy South Florida.
*Generally speaking teams play close to .500 football. The good teams play 3-4 games above .500 and the bad teams play .500 or 3-4 games below. Today for instance, it is reasonable to expect that the Ravens will not turn the ball over 5 times like they did last week. It also means that the cowboys are due for a win and the Broncos due for if not a loss, a close game. The point is to pick the teams and go against the obvious short trend (their performance the prior week) and bet on the longer trend of the quality of the team. A team that has a great season - say 13-3- still loses three games and the key is to pick the game after the loss and see if the point spread is off based on the team's loss the prior week.
FYI- identifying the Browns as better than the rest of the public thought they were has made us more money in three weeks than we made all of last year.
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