BLACK SUNDAY NFL CHAMPIONSHIP SUNDAY 2023

 Black Sunday was a movie, filmed in the Orange Bowl in 1977 about a fictitious terrorist attack on a Super Bowl. Rumpole, along with tens of thousands of Miamians, was an extra, not knowing that his lifetime fate - the Justice Building (as it was known then) was just over the bridge and down the street. The Orange Bowl used to be a football stadium where the Dolphins and Canes played before most REGJB judges were born.

Two years later, in 1979, Las Vegas Bookies experienced a real black Sunday in perhaps the greatest Super Bowl every played. In Super Bowl XIII, which featured the first Super Bowl rematch, two teams with superstars at their peak faced off. The Steelers had Terry Bradshaw at QB, Franco Harris at RB, Joe Green and LC Greenwood on the d-line, Jack Ham and Jack Lambert at LB, Donnie Shell and Mel Blount in the secondary, and Swann and Stallworth as the WRs, Hall of famers all- except for LC who should be in the HOF. The Cowboys had their own hall of fame to be players, including Roger Staubach at QB, Tony Dorsett at RB, Ed "too tall" Jones and Randy White on the D line. For three quarters the teams went toe to toe, the score see-sawing back and forth until the Steelers broke it open and went up 35-17, only to see Staubach throw two TDs in the final two and half minutes of the game. He hit Bily Joe Dupree (the best name for a Cowboy football player ever) to bring it to 35-24 and then Dallas recovered the onsides kick. Staubach then hit Butch Johnson for a TD to get the backdoor middle of 35-31 with 22 seconds left before reliable Rocky Blier, the Steeler halfback, recovered the on-sides kick to seal the game and the middle play.  

It was a great game, enjoyed by all who watched it except....if you ran a book in Las Vegas. This game is known as Black Sunday for the books and remains one of only two Super Bowls in which the house lost and lost big. (The other SB loss for the books is when the underdog Giants beat the undefeated Cheaters and a ton of money was on the underdog Giants).  

The reason why the house lost is the line and how it moved. The line opened with the Steelers as 3 1/2 point favorites and as the money flowed in on Pittsburgh, the line moved to 4 1/2, bringing in the late Dallas money. Remember a book makes money on a game by having an even amount of money bet on each team, with the losing bets paying a ten percent vig. 

The Steelers won 35-31, by four points, and the Vegas books took a beating, because millions of dollars were bet on the Steelers - 3/1 and Dallas +4 1/2 and the books had to pay out on both ends- called a middle bet- including a young Rumpole, on his first trip to Vegas with his lifelong friend 52nd Street Irwin, who talked us into 500 on the Steelers -3 1/2 and 500 on the Cowboys + 4/12- it was at the time the most cash we had ever held. 

Lefty Rosenthal ran the book at the Stardust, and he ran a promotion allowing bettors right up to game time to take the spread bet of Steelers - 3 1/2 and Dallas +4 1/2. Rosenthal was the character Robert DeNiro played in Casino, and the Stardust lost close to two million 1979 dollars which was a lot of money back then. 

Legendary Vegas odds maker Jimmy Vaccaro ran the small sports at the Royal Inn casino. After the game the owner of the Casino called Vaccaro. "You want the good news or the bad news first?" asked Vacarro. "The bad news" said the owner. "We lost about 200 grand" said Vacarro. "What's the good news?" the owner asked. "We only lost about 200 grand" Vacarro replied. 

Which brings us to the Chiefs- Bengals game today. The line opened with Bengals a 1 to 1.5 favorite, and after a lot of publicity about how Chiefs QB Mahomes' ankle was all better, the line shifted to KC -1 to -1.5. So is there a middle play here? We don't see it. 

These teams, when everyone is healthy, are scoring machines. They can run with anyone and score on anyone, which means absent some numerical oddities, the game should be decided on a last second TD or FG and one of these two teams will win by 2 to 6 points. A one-point game is possible, and we immediately put down a few bottles' worth of Chateau Miami River on the Bengals, who we have liked to make it to the SB since before the Bills game (and we gave you the winner in that one). When the line moved and KC became a favourite, remembering black Sunday and our friend 52nd Street (who succumbed to Covid before he could get a vaccine) we tried to see if we could find a book that would allow us to middle KC -2 and Cincy -2. where a one-point win either way pays off both tickets. So far the books are too sharp to risk that play. Meanwhile we loaded up on the Bengals getting 1.5. We like the Bengals +1.5.  Cincy has KC's number. They are a tough team and Joe Burrow has won more road playoff games to date than Joe Montanna won in his career. 

WIN - With San Fran down to their 5th string Qb - RB McCaffery- this was an easy win 31-7 for the Eagles. Right now we think the line for Eagles/Bengals should be even or one of the teams a .5 favourite depending on the injury situation, However,  we are guessing there will be a lot of Eagles money to open this week, and they will open as -3 favouties over Cincy, and -4.5 over KC. The over/under should be around 47 but will creep up to 50 and even then we like the over. 

In the Philly - San Fran game, we go back to our theme last week. It's midnight, and it's time for Cinderella to go home. In this case Cinderella is Brock Purdy, the 49ers rookie third string QB who has yet to lose a professional game. 

But he has never played a game in Philadelphia, where a few years ago the fans infamously booed Santa Claus on a Christmas Eve game. This Eagles team is as well rounded a team as you will see, with some last-minute defense free-agent pickups that have made them a powerhouse. The key to this game is turnovers. San Fran makes a run only if Jalen Hurts turns the ball over more than once. Otherwise, we see a 35-17 Eagles win. Take Philly big as a 2.5 favoritie at home. We do not think this will be close.  

Watch the second part of the trailer for scenes of Miami and the Orange Bowl circa 1977.