Sunday, March 01, 2020

THE END OF WESTERN CIVILIZATION?

We know what you are thinking when you read the headline....a post on Covid-19. Well, you're semi-correct. We have some tips below, but first...

We are well known Anglophiles. England formed western civilization, and then saved it in 1939-1941 when she stood  alone against tyranny. We take our legal principles from England, as well as part of our original ancestry (white Americans came from England seeking religious freedom; black Americans were brought from Africa and sold into slavery). 

England is culture- tea and cucumber sandwiches before an evening at the theater with Shakespeare; refinement- there is nothing like a fine English tailored suit, especially when your tailor has a liberal supply of gin for the fitting; and democracy- there is nothing comparable to the PM questioning by Parliament. 

But now England is Brexit, which we disagree with, but can live with. Brexit was engineered by the current occupant of 10 Downing Street, and this is where our story begins. Boris Johnson (55) is the current PM.  Before Harry and Megan upset the Queen by resigning from Royalty, the PM committed a worse faux paus by bringing one Carrie Symonds (31) into 10 Downing as the PM's consort. Not married, the couple cohabitated in the Prime Minister's Residence. It's as if Cory Booker won the Presidency and brought his boo in to the White House Residence. 

But now, we are shaken even further as Mr. Johnson and Ms. Symonds have announced they are affianced and ...expecting!  A child conceived out of wedlock in the same home occupied by Disraeli and Churchill (but not at the same time). As if her Majesty doesn't have enough troubling her with Prince Andrew's contretemps, and Harry and Megan selling coffee mugs. It's enough to take our minds off of Covid-19.

COVID-19 isn't coming. It's here. We are seeing community infections now (which means people who are infected did not travel to China or Italy. Instead they have been infected through community contact with someone else). By the end of March there will between 150,000- 1 Million cases in the US. 
What should you do? We have the answers. 

FIRST BEFORE ANY NUMBERED SUGGESTIONS: LET THIS EMERGENCY END THE BARBARIC TRADITION OF SHAKING HANDS OR EVEN WORSE-  KISSING ON THE CHEEK WHEN MEETING.  There is no reason to exchange germs when meeting people. A simple "hi, nice to see/meet you" is sufficient. 

1. Get a flu shot. You don't want to get sick. It lowers your immunity.
2- Take a lot of vitamin C- 3000mg a day or more. 
3. Limit your community exposure. Movies? Netflix only. Stay home.
 4. Eat out? Nope. And this means no more Uber Eats or any other delivery service like Dominos. Learn to boil water to make pasta and butter bread to make grilled cheese. 
5. Exercise at home. Go for a run. No more gyms. 
6. Here is a list of other don'ts and no-mores: travel/planes; cruises; Disneyworld; Hialeah; Costco and Trader Joes; happy hours after work and  any other  place people gather (Marlin's games are fine- you can sit by yourself). If you're a Judge, the legal library is OK- you probably haven't been there before.  But- and this is a hard one- NO MORE STARBUCKS until we say so. Basically you do not want people you do not know making your food and drinks until the risk of infection is gone. 

7. Do I need a mask? No, not if you're not sick. But you should plan for supply chain disruptions. Stock up on these items: 
Tylenol and decongestants; toilet paper; dry and canned goods (remember about not eating out); get a good thermometer; hand disinfectant is best, but a good antibacterial soap for the home also works; Clorox wipes. 
8. A family of five should have: 100 boxes of pasta; 200 cans of beans/legumes; 100 cans/jars of sauce; 50 cans of vegetables; 50 pounds of rice; 200 12 oz bottles of Gatorade for hydration- or you can buy cans of powdered Gatorade; 10 cans of powdered milk (which can be used for baking); 100 pounds of flour; 200 tablets of Tylenol. Fill your freezer with bags of processed proteins. We would not normally recommend this, but those products have preservatives which will allow them to keep better then just freezing meats and chickens unless you have a food storage system. 

Here is the good news: we are protected here in South Florida, because warm temperatures kill the virus. You can expect to see infections in the Pacific Northwest (Seattle and Portland); Chicago and Milwaukee; New York and Boston. Places in Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico, and the South should have lower rates of infections. 
Furthermore, many people infected with Covid-19 report mild flu symptoms, with a recovery in less than a month. By the summer, this will be a fading memory (remember the almost-war with Iran last month?) and by this time next year we should be seeing the widespread use of vaccinations and anti-viral treatments...AND most significantly...
A new Baby at 10 Downing Street.  



12 comments:

  1. Thank you Rumpole. You are a cool head with a lot of useful information in times of trouble. e could use you as a senator from Florida, or beyond. Seriously.
    A fan.

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  2. Rump is the man...and he's sexy as all and he's dope.

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  3. .... all well and good, BUT:

    Rules to follow for this week in the STOCK MARKET?

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  4. Rules are pretty simple- buy when they sell.
    Think about where your portfolio would have been if you were buying during the financial crisis?

    We have pretty much reached a technical bottom, so now the market will be driven by news- you will see whipsaw swings in the daily averages depending if the news is good or bad. Considering I believe there will be 150-500 or 1million us cases before this burns out, you can expect the markets to lose another 20%. Buy so long as you can hold. If this burns out over the summer, I expect to see us at record levels by December. Don't use any money you will need over the next six months.

    Buy Appl, Microsoft, Visa, Amazon, JP Morgan, and Mastercard. A good SP 500 index fund, Abbott Labs, Bristol Meyers, Merck. AVOID any service, travel, restaurant industry. Banks paying high returns on their stocks are safe havens. I like Valley National Bank paying a 4% yield. Clorox is another safe haven.
    Bonds and US Treasuries.
    Take a flyer on China Mobile CHL, and Alibaba BABBA, as well as GE below 11, Tencent TCTZF,
    and Tyson Foods because China is going to be buying all their pork and poultry. It's a steal at 67. It's a $90 stock by the end of the year. I basically like any China industrial stock under the assumption they have the clearest handle on this and first in-first out. They will be first to recover. Obviously avoid cruise and airline stocks, although once it's hammered enough, Delta is a buy considering its good enough for Warren Buffet.



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  5. Mostly good advice Rumpole. But 3,000mg or more of Vitamin C is far too much:

    https://www.health.harvard.edu/staying-healthy/whats-the-right-amount-of-vitamin-c-for-me

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  6. add canned fruit like peaches, jello, extra pet food and any meds, extra laundry and dish washing or dish detergent, batteries for the remote control, fresh lemons, limes and oranges, frozen berries and/or juice (not the best but better than nothing), eggs, chicken or vegetable broth and anything frozen or canned to make soup, Greek yogurt (counterintuitive but there is real science behind it) - if anyone gets sick - dump the sponges and do not use sponges until all are well - wash sheets, towels and dish towels plus their clothes daily and when possible get fresh air inside - the thought of this virus running through a family is not a good one

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  7. I have had a public and well known and long running feud with Harvard on the proper amount of vitamin C. Vitamin C is a powerful antioxidant and I personally take 500 mg a month.

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  8. Fake Purple Label Blue Blazer Formerly Owned by Kenneth WSunday, March 01, 2020 9:12:00 PM

    Hey Rumpole - Any reason that you didn’t recommend NETFLIX in your above commentary?

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  9. Already here.

    https://www.wesh.com/article/florida-gov-says-coronvirus-2-presumptively-positive-tests/31180562

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  10. Miami Dade DOC taking the opportunity Corona Virus provides to make several changes to attorney-inmate visits:

    1. Rectal probes for all visiting attorneys
    2. Court documents and discovery will be shredded to examine fibers for infection
    3. All attorneys must use Room 1 at MetroWest
    4. Inmates will not be brought down for visits

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  11. And it may already be in Miami. But the CDC and state health department don't want to know about it.

    https://miami.cbslocal.com/2020/03/02/coronavirus-confusion-miami-woman-allegedly-denied-proper-testing/

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  12. "By the summer, this will be a fading memory"

    Let's not bank on the summer to burn out the epidemic.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/06/its-a-false-hope-coronavirus-will-disappear-in-the-summer-like-the-flu-who-says.html

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