Welcome to Super Bowl Sunday!
As we wrote in our last post, we will not be watching the game. But we have some sights for you.
First, don't under estimate the importance of good coaching. Bad coaching can cause errors that can turn the game around. See the video below as to what happens when you have bad coaching:
Now on to the game.
Right now, the best coach in the playoffs was one of the worst head coaches in the last ten years: Denver's defensive coordinator Wade Phillips. While Denver got lucky that a third string running back fumbled in their first playoff game, their defense was superb against the New England Cheaters.
We will take a good defense almost any year in a super bowl game. The hesitation is that the Broncos couldn't stop an injured Ben Roethlisberger, and but for that fumble, they probably wouldn't have won the game. And Panthers QB Newton is a bigger, younger, faster Roethliberger. BUT....Roethlisberger performed poorly in his first super bowl experience, winning because of a good defense, a great running game, and a trick play (WR Randle El throwing a TD pass to WR MVP Hines Ward).
We will take the experience of Denver's D over the Panthers and Cam Newton. When they were routed in the Super Bowl two years ago, Broncos GM John Elway, who knows a thing or two about losing and winning super bowls, went about building a defense to carry Peyton Manning to one last super bowl. It's worked so far.
The smart money:
Our Man 52nd Street Irwin has been monitoring the money flow in Vegas all week. He sets the line for a series of smaller sports books in Nevada. And all week the books were searching for Denver money as the Panther money flowed, starting at Carolina -3 5. By the time it got to Carolina -6 the Denver money showed up, big time, by the pros.
Our Pick: Our head still says Carolina, but we would like to see Manning win one for the Gipper and go out a winner. If we were betting this game, and we are not, we would eschew the spread and take take the money line Denver + a juicy 195. Lay a hundred and get almost 2-1 on Peyton Manning in a super bowl. We'll do that all the time.
Over 44.5
Tails for the coin flip.
Take Adventure Of a Lifetime as the first song ColdPlay plays during halftime. Odds are 2-1.
BTW there has NEVER been a punt returned for a TD in 50 super bowls. In general it's 20-1 for a punt to be returned for a TD, so it's pretty long odds against it never occurring in 50 games, so put us down for a punt returned for a TD in this one.
JUSTICE BUILDING PROPS.
A proposition bet is a fun bet, like will Kobe Bryant score more than the total in the game?, etc. So we've put together some REGJB themed prop bets:
Double the final score OR the sum of Judges De La O and Glick's calendar pages on Monday. (Lets say the final score it 27-20, that number is 94 or the total of the two judges' calendar pages on Monday).
The final Nielson rating for the game versus the total number of pages of Judge Ward's calendar?
Total points scored in first half versus the total number of pages of Judge De la O's calendar or Judge Richard Hersch's calendar (Pick one)?
Which will be the higher number? The longest field goal made in the game or the total number of pages of Judge Murphy's calendar?
Which will be the higher number? The total number of yards rushed by the Panthers, or the total number of calendar pages of the sum of Judges De la O, Murphy, and Glick?
Which will be the highest number? The total number of receiving yards of Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas, or the total calendar pages of Judges De la O, Murphy, Glick, Tinkler-Mendez, and Richard Hersch?
Longest touchdown scored from scrimmage or the total number of calendar pages of Judges Hersch and Hirsch?
SPORTS/POLITICS/REGJB
What will be higher? Total percentage of the vote Donald Trump gets in the New Hampshire Primary, the number of points scored by Carolina, or the number of pages of judge Milt Hirsch's calendar on Monday?
Have fun and if you are watching the game, enjoy it and let us know who wins. We'll be attending a lecture at the Met later this morning entitled "When Belief Meets Art." And if you've never seen "The Curious Incident of the Dog At Night" (and most of you haven't) you're missing Broadway at its most ingenious and finest.
See You In Court.
LETS GO BRONCOS
ReplyDeleteORANGE CRUSH BABY
*****yawn****
ReplyDeleteThe menu of the restaurant nobody is allowed to mention has a distinctly unamerican theme today. It's Super Bowl BAHM MI DAY! Yes, its the famous Vietnamese street food being served all day as Bahm Mi Miami Superstar Ngyun "Chef Carlos" takes over the kitchen for the day and evening.
ReplyDeleteTry the Super Special Super Bahm Mi- wild caught goose liver sauteed with organic vadalia onions, and picked Vietnamese slaw, with some spicy mayo on a roll.
Not your style? Then good old fashioned chicken or pork or fried shrimp Bahm Mi and a nice Blue Moon ale to wash it down.
Either way, come and enjoy.
Love a good bahm mi - hard to find.
ReplyDeleteI had that goose liver bahn mi from that kid carlos at a street food thing in Ft Lauderdale a week ago at 11 am. He was putting a poached quail egg on the sandwich and it was amazing. Washed it down with a bloody mary. The chef is a geniu
ReplyDeleteHey how about the fact that in the end of August I wrote "I am pretty sure that the super bowl will be Denver vs Carolina, and that both teams will be undefeated or close to it and that Denver will beat the steelers and patriots in the playoffs in convincing fashion and that Carolina will have one blow out game against the cowboys and one last second field goal win against the Cardinals."
ReplyDeleteGive me some props Rump-= Its not a bad prediction at all.
Hey it's 52nd Street Irwin here. Rumpole gave me access to clear the blog comments and to make some comments on the game.
ReplyDeleteI help run a consortium of small and independent sports books in Nevada. I set the lines and run the playoff action which I will describe later.
First, Denver scoring first was huge for us. We took 640,000 in prop bets on who scores first and we listed Carolina -175 so players had to pay 175 to win 100 and of the 640 500 was on Carolina. We had Denver at +135 so we're paying almost 200 on those bets so we're making a profit of 300,000 right off the bat which is very big for our books.
Total bets for our books was almost 64 million. Of that 55 million was a win/loss bet, 5 million was over under, and almost 4 million were prop bets.
I'll get back because we're going to lay off some of that prop bet action based on our profits so far.
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Starting with the foie gras appetizers, then on to the Kobe Beef sliders and then on to the pasta and Proper Sausage sausage and peppers dish. Marone!
ReplyDeleteThat was huge. I'm with Rumpole on picking Denver because Cam is young and had the potential of being shaken and scared and that sack showed that he is feeling the pressure. Carolina played from in front all year and now we will see if they can come behind.
ReplyDeleteSo here we are at our national festival of gluttony, second only to Thanksgiving. Go to your super bowl parties and drink gallons of beer and diet coke and eat tons of chips and dip and friend wings and pizza and then of course you have to have dessert so load up on the cake and cookies because hey it's the super bowl and you're just doing your patriotic duty by stuffing yourself into a hypoglycemic coma.
ReplyDeleteEat up fat bodies. See you huffing and puffing in the gym with your bellies hanging over your shorts. I'm going for a run. Then some steamed veggies and six ounces of baked sea bass.
Carolina is toast. Rumpole has the right idea. Wish I was with him at per se in NYC (check his twitter feed).
ReplyDeleteSo here is what I do when I lay off bets. We charge ten percent if you lose. That's our cake. So ideally we want a million dollars bet on the broncos and a million dollars bet on the panthers at all the same line, half win, half lose, we take 200K for providing the service and everyone's happy.
ReplyDeleteIn the real world however, I am constantly moving the line to get bettors. We opened the line at Carolina -4 and at one point it was about 11-4 million on Carolina, so we needed Denver bettors so I kept moving the line up and giving Denver more points to get more Denver bettors. However, I have relationships with other sports book managers, so many times I will accept or give them bets to balance my books. This is called laying off bets.
My biggest exposure after Denver scored first was a first half under/over of 22 with a lot more money bet on over than under. So I solicited under bets from other casinos who may have been looking to balance their books as well. Its hard to do in games like this because the betting is so widespread, but i was able to limit our exposure to well under a million so I am happy.
Where we will always be exposed is to the professionals who middle us.
And I know this has occurred because I know my big players and there is nothing illegal about it and I will accept their action without shifting the line on them.
A guy could take Carolina -4 for a million and Denver +6 a few days later for a million and a Carolina win by five and he collects both bets. It happened once in a famous super bowl which we still call Black Sunday around here. Super Bowl 13, Steelers vs Cowboys. The Boys had won the year before, the Steelers were looking for win# 3 and opened at 4.5 favorites but the line went between 3.5 and 5. The Steelers won 35-31 in the first Super Bowl rematch and we were just creamed here by the pros. All the early money was Steeler money at 3.5. All the late money was cowboy money at 4.5 and 5. For reasons hard to explain here, 4 is a very key number for books and I remember working with my friend Jimmy Vaccaro -Jimmy V- in a new book he was running. V was a Pittsburgh guy and had a good handle on the game and was very nervous when we had our final numbers going into the game. Sure enough we got just destroyed by the pros who middled us and the regular money which flowed Steelers early and Cowboys late.
That could happen today, but in my next comment I will explain why it wont be a disaster.
ReplyDeleteI had braised beets in a sake sauce with NY stripped bass and a golden yukon mash with truffles and truffle oil at per se this summer. I also had the most amazing peach/gin souffle with marscapone cream and creme fresche for dessert. It was an amazing meal. Maybe the best ever. My GF just had a filet of beef in a porcini mushroom sauce and some fingerling potatoes and french grilled green beans. We had a cheese and meat plate for appetizer.
It was perhaps the meal of a lifetime. Cost enough.
Rump almost won his punt return bet and this is a good time to note Mr R won his deadlock Coin Toss prediction by correctly picking Tails.
ReplyDelete52
The reason why a middle won't hurt us as much as it did in 79 is that back then we didn't have the millions in soft money sucker bets on parlays and props and teasers like we do today. Back then almost all the money was on a team with a little on the over/under.
ReplyDeleteWe make upwards of 72% over the year on all our parlays, props and teasers. In the super bowl today we may squeeze that to 76% based on a lot of new easy and soft money and that makes us a lot of money and offsets any disaster.
BTW we would like a first half under 23 or we will take a small loss and that Denver just kicked a FG and didn't score really helped.
52
Rumpole may not like football anymore, but his analysis is the best by far. Wade Phillip's defense is out playing and shutting down Cam Newton's offense and I'm glad I took a geezel and put it on Denver on the money line. The 1750 will spend well.
ReplyDeleteLooking for a pick six here by cam.
ReplyDeleteJust sayin the food here at the venue I cannot mention is outrageous. The Bahn Mi is delicious. There's some caviar, some amazing chicharones, and some small batch local craft beers that are crisp and delicious and just right. There's some hotties here too and that makes it even nicer.
ReplyDeleteWe're exposed by over a million on first half over 23, so right now I'm rooting for Denver D to stop Cam. We would taking that extra million as creme on the cake, and our ten percent on another 1.5 first half of over/under bets and that would really make our night for our books. I made the decision to take the risk on the under. I liked what I saw in Denver's D and I never felt Peyton would make a big difference for more than a drive or too. Let's see if my experience pays off.
ReplyDelete52
Thank You Mr. Marcus Ware, you just put over a million in my clients' pockets and I will make a nice chunk of that.
ReplyDelete52
Hey Rumpole, I ate at Daniel last week and I will put his menu up against Per Se any day of the week. It was four of us, (I paid- ouch) and here is some of what we had:
ReplyDeleteGreat Scott! 28 Great King Street Scotch, Lemon Grass Syrup Smoked Earl Grey, Orange Oil as a drink.
Apps:
Long Island Fluke, Sea Urchin, Granny Smith Apple, Seaweed Crisp, White Sturgeon Caviar
and Slow Cooked Monkfish, British Columbia Honey Mussels Castelfranco, Red Tardivo
Piquillo Coulis, Sauce “Mouclade- just unbelievably good btw.
Dinner:
My GF and one our guests had Pan-Seared Venison Loin Farro Berkoukes, Spicebush Berries, Quince, Sauce Poivrade
I had High Plains Buffalo Rossini with Hudson Valley Foie Gras
Spinach,and Black Truffles
Her sister had Slow Baked Dover Sole with Boston Lettuce Chutney, Pinenuts, Golden Raisins
Green Peppercorn-Brown Butter Lettuce Couli.
For dessert we had a Paris Brest pastry and White Wine Poached Quince
Muscovado Sablé with Rose-cinnamon and espresso Ice Cream
We also had three bottles (at 350 per) of Billecart-Salmon Brut Rosé NV 39
Krug Brut Grande Cuvée
When you pay you get a mini-menu of your order printed out for you to take home a memento which is how I remember how the dishes were exactly made.
I was out for 2500 for dinner. But it was worth it if you saw my Gf.
That wasn't a half bad half time show.
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile I conferred with my books because we are exposed on our over 46 bet and I could lay it off now if I wanted to. We layed off about a million and left ourselves expose a million, basically playing with our customers'money for the second half.
52
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
ReplyDeleteVon Miller is your MVP
ReplyDeleteLoving our decision on under right now
52
Is anybody here troubled by the fact that Dr. Sleepy and the Donald couldn't figure their way onto the stage? Really folks: do we want either of these knuckleheads having the nuclear codes?
ReplyDelete