UPDATE- THINGS WILL START MOVING QUICKLY AT 7PM. WE WILL BE OUT OF TOUCH UNTIL 7:30- CHECK FOR FIRST UPDATE BY 8PM. THIS WILL ALL BE OVER QUICKLY.
Barak Obama will be the 44th President of the US, and he will be declared the winner sometime between 9:01 and 10:01 PM.
Our unscientific but extremely close look at over 6 national and 65 state polls leads us to state the following:
As of Monday evening there was a general convergence in national polls, with Obama averaging a 7 point national lead. These polls will be fairly accurate because oddly enough, of one mistake most of them have made: over stating the number of undecided voters. The undecided percentage throughout most of October was 3%, NOT the 7-10% reported in the media. As the undecideds broke in October, they broke 7-1 for Obama.
The short version: Obama will hold all states that voted for Kerry in 2004, AND GAIN Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada, North Dakota, North Carolina, Missouri, Colorado, Florida, Virginia and probably Ohio.
The prediction: 367 to 171.
McCain: Texas, Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, Arizona, Alaska, Oklahoma, Indiana, Kansas, Nebraska, Montana, South Dakota, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, South Carolina, Georgia(barely), Kentucky, West Virginia.= 171 Electoral Votes.
Obama: California, Oregon, Washington State, North Dakota, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, Missouri, Minnesota, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, Massachusetts, Illinois, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, New York, New Jersey, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii.
=367 Electoral Votes.
Election Night we will have our laptop up and running and will post your commentary as it comes in. Some local elections to watch including a Dade circuit judicial election and the ever entertaining Broward's " A Vote for Dijols=Obama/Levey-Cohen."
Who will win? Who cares?
See You Election Eve.
UPDATE: Election night Preview:
7PM: Polls close in Indiana and Virginia. nb: Government officials have the ability to keep polls open in Virginia another two hours if needed.
7:30: Polls close in North Carolina and Ohio.
8:00 Polls close in Florida, Missouri, and Pennsylvania.
9:00 Polls close in Colorado and New Mexico.
Why did McCain invest so much time in New Hampshire in the last weeks of the campaign? Two reasons. 1) He is genuinely fond of the State that gave him a start in 2000 and a comeback in 2008; 2) The road to 270. Fun fact: If McCain wins Colorado and New Hampshire and holds on to the Bush states of Ohio and Florida he squeeks into the Presidency. On the other hand, Obama can LOSE all the big states (Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida) and get to 270 by winning Colorado, New Mexico and Virginia. McCain's road to 270 is a whole lot narrower than Obama's. That's why the 7pm poll closings are significant. Obama is polling ahead in both states. If he wins Indiana OR Virginia, game over. See ya in 2012.
Check in around 7pm for our first big update.
WORD OF THE DAY GUYS (SPORTS EDITION)
ReplyDeleteREGINALD MARTINEZ JACKSON -BORN May 18, 1945. Nicknamed Mr. October for his clutch hitting in playoffs and world series (which are played in October). He played for the Oakland A's from 1967
( when they were the Kansas City Athletics) through 1976, during which he was part of a team that won 3 consecutive World Series beginning in 1973. Jackson signed a free agent contract with the NY Yankees in November 1976 and began his career in New York with the memorable 1977 baseball season during which he had sometimes violent feuds with manager Billy Martin.
The Yankees made the world series that year playing against the LA Dodgers. Jackson hit home runs in games 4 and 5. Then, on one memorable October evening in the Bronx, he hit three home runs on three first pitches, caping off the evening with a 475 foot blast off of Pitcher Charlie Hough.
Jackson played 21 seasons, was in the playoffs for 11 seasons, and he won 5 World Series.
He was elected to the Hall of Fame the first year he was eligible.
BREAKING BLOG NEWS. FROM A SOURCE DEEP WITHIN THE OBAMA CAMPAIGN: Soon to be President Elect Barak Obama intends to appoint our very own BRIAN TANNENBAUM as Assistant Secretary for Nudge.
ReplyDeleteAs the Assistant Secretary For Nudge, Tannenbaum will be responsible for bothering most of the population of the South Eastern and South Western United States, as well as the western territories of Canada and parts of Mexico and the Americas.
WELL DONE BRIAN!!!!!
So like I went to vote over the weekend and they were like "Dude you have to be registered" and I'm like "Dude I'm a registered attorney!!!" So they were like "wow" and then they told me about this new program called "late voting" and like you vote on Wednesday when there aren't any lines and like they still have to count your vote and all, and I'm like "Dude!!! No lines, I'm there" so like everyone should wait until tomorrow for "late voting" and as long as you're like a registered attorney and all they have to like let you do it and count your vote.
ReplyDeleteDo you think I've had too much caffeine already?
From the McCain campaign on Morning Joe MSNBC this morning:
ReplyDelete"This is a close race in many swing states. We are one point in Florida, Virginia, Missouri, and North Carolina, and within the margin of error in Ohio and Pennsylvania according to our internal polls. We expect to be up late and neither campaign will be calling it Shumie Time until well into Wednesday morning, if not later."
Speaking of which, I'm at the Starbucks at Ponce in the Gables, here on my blackberry and I ordered the ßhume Time as did two other people in line in front of me.
ReplyDeleteVanilla Frappucino with a shot of espresso on top (espresso floater as it were)
Rump, you should take down 7:27 AM. That position requires senate confirmation and I'm not sure he has the pull to make it through a hearing if the investigators get their hands on the infamous Justice Building "Birthday Cake Incident" in which BT was involved in Judge Milian's courtroom.
ReplyDeleteHere's my prediction:
ReplyDeleteObama 371 (DC, ME, NH, VT, RI, MA, CT, NY, NJ, DE, PA, MD, VA, NC, FL, OH, MO, IL, IA, MN, MI, WI, NM, CO, NV, CA, OR, WA, HI and one of NE's electoral votes)
McCain 167 (WV, SC, KY, TN, AR, GA, MS, AL, LA, TX, OK, KS, NE (4 out of 5 electoral votes), SD, IN, WY, UT, AZ, ID, AK)
Popular vote--Obama 53%, McCain 46%, others 1%
Senate--59 Democrats (counting Lieberman and Sanders as Dems), 40 Republicans, runoff in Georgia, which Chambliss will probably narrowly win.
House--261 Dem, 174 GOP
I may post a comments later tonight and will post my analysis tomorrow. Then I will go back into hibernation until September 2010.
www.harveyruvin.com
ReplyDeletefour more years!
HARVEY RUVIN IS THE GREATEST CLERK SINCE MARSHALL ADER. AND THAT'S SAYING A LOT.
ReplyDeleteAnd I say this with all love and respect:How will Brian's new job will be different from what he does now?
ReplyDeleteAnswer- he currently doesn't have subpoena power- oh wait he does. He does not have a big office- oh wait, he does. Um, somehow it will be different. I just know it.
ReplyDeleteTHE CAPTAIN PREDICTS:
ReplyDeleteHorace, you're not the only one in the business of calling elections. It's smackdown time and I'm throwing down the challenge:
United States Senate:
Democrats - 57
Republicans - 41
Other - 2
House of Reps:
Democrats - 260
Republicans - 175
Presidential Election - Popular Vote:
Obama - 52%
McCain - 47%
Presidential Election - Electoral College
Obama - 343
McCain - 195
TIEBREAKER:
Colodny upsets Millan
Captain Out ....
I didn't censor your comment about Jewish people. I refused to publish it. But here is the great thing about our country- you are free to start your own blog and publish your moronic ramblings about the Jews. But you will have two problems: 1) You are two too stupid to figure out how to set up a blog; 2) Unlike my blog, no one will be interested in reading your swill.
ReplyDeleteSo on this great day for Americans, I leave you sir, to stew in your own hatefully little decaying world
boy rumpole, the comment must have really hit a nerve, or is it rumpoles: lurvey, moldovan, saul, grey, catalano, hersch, altschuler, the secret unmagnificent 7.
ReplyDeleteAll the talk about the Clerk race and here we are on Nov 4, and no mention about CPS.
ReplyDeleteElection results will post at 7PM in real at the above link or just go here:
ReplyDeletehttp://results.enr.clarityelections.com/FL/Dade/8930/11784/en/summary.html
Captain? Colodny winning is an upset? She has the money, the pretty face and the help of political juggernauts Mills Francis and Pando.
ReplyDeleteRump
ReplyDeleteThanks for that send-off: "see ya in 2012." Our response is:
"Gotcha, you betcha [wink]"
Sign off as SNL re-dux
1) EXIT POLLS ARE VERY VERY UNRELIABLE - REMEMBER THE EARLY EXIT POLLS FOR KERRY AND OHIO IN 2004- THEY WERE WRONG.
ReplyDelete2) INTERNAL EXIT POLLS FROM MCCAIN CAMPAIGN PAINT BLEAK PICTURE FOR OHIO, VIRGINIA, FLORIDA, COLORADO.
FYI
to 4:27 pm
ReplyDeleteUpset in this regard:
Group 19:
Stephen Millan - 40%
Yvonne Colodny - 32%
Patricia Kopco - 27%
Millan was ahead by 8 points in the Primary. Theat would make him the prohibitive favorite in the general election.
But with the heavy democrat vote going on today in Dade, I think that is certainly an equalizer for Colodny.
Cap Out
Captain remember Tinkler Mendez and Parks when Parks was far ahead in the primary and Judge Tinkler took the race in the General in 2006.
ReplyDeleteSo what ...?
You are dead wrong El Capitan. I have studied this issue and written on it extensively in the 1980's. In a three party race that is then narrowed down to two, by a margin of over 70%, the candidate who finishes second in the first election will win. It has to do with the fact that generally the second and third party candidates split their support, and that support will then gather around the second place finisher.
ReplyDeletePut another way- in a three person race, a minority candidate (not in the sense of race, but support) will win the plurality of votes.
The solution to this is something called "approval voting" which allows individuals to rank their candidates in a three person or plus race.
Simply put, your observation is not correct from the standpoint of electoral history. Sorry- but as I have hinted before- I used to do this professionally in the 1980's.
Yvonne Colodny 64.78% 234,973
ReplyDeleteStephen T. Millan 35.22% 127,764
Harvey Ruvin 75.55% 311,344
ReplyDeleteAlfredo 'Al' Perez 15.44% 63,631
Julio Valido 4.15% 17,084
Darrin E. McGillis 4.87% 20,071
Rumpole
ReplyDeleteHi. I read the Hearld Local Article on Lee Weisenborn and the 1972 Congressional Race. I was 16 and worked for Lee going door to door in what is now Miami Gardens ( Norward) . Lee was a true LIBERAL; in the mid-60s as a State Senator he opposed segragation and the N. Florida good old boys choke hold on Tallahassee.
D.Sisselman
In the primary only informed people voted for the Judges; the random voter did not turn out based off signs. Now, Millan did not advertise as much as Colodny. Because this presidential election is so heavily contested, most people will just vote for the name they have seen the most - Colodny.
ReplyDelete