Things just keep getting tougher in the NFL this year, which is becoming the season of the Haves (Cheaters, Colts, Steelers, Cowboys and the Surprising Packers) and the have nots-everyone else.
Here’s the thing. There isn’t one game this week we feel strong about. Our system, which is noticing trends the public does not (overrated or underrated teams especially) has not provided good matchups. The 49’ers did not look as good as we thought last week, so while we would normally say take them at home against the Seahawks, we think it is better to wait a week and see if they right themselves. Similarly, the Cardinals now have a QB controversy at the wrong time- with the visiting Steelers and their pressure defense. Stay away from that game.
The three games we like are visiting favorites. You will go broke quickly betting against home dogs on a regular basis. Thus, while we like the Eagles. The Pack, and the Jets, tread lightly here.
Here are our best guesses this week.
The Bears take their very tough Defense and start Brian Griese over Rex Grossman to Detroit. The Bears are banged up very bad, otherwise the play would be Bears -3. The over/under is 45 and that is intriguing. The Lions have an explosive offense. The Bears are banged up on defense. The play seems to be under, but with a Big Lion roaring on O, and a rejuvenated Bear offense psyched by behind Griese, over might just be the play here. The Lions are also one of our lesser trend teams in that they are better than people think. Lions +3, and Over 45.
The resurgent Philly Eagles take a quick bus ride to NJ to battle the NY Football Giants. The Giants are just hanging on with a gritty win over the Redskins last week, The line is Philly -3 and the over under is 47 ½. We like the Eagles who are the far superior team. The Giants are in reality ready to enter the Bill Cowher sweepstakes. Their Coach has lost this team, and nothing short of a super bowl victory will save his job. Take the Eagles -3 and the under.
The surprising Pack play division rival Vikings at Minneapolis. The Pack is -3 on the road, but the Vikes are starting their back-up QB. While the Vikes have rookie sensation Adrian Peterson, wouldn’t you go with Farve versus a backup. Take the Pack, but lightly as home dogs can bite.
The Dolphins (the Dolphins???) just about turned the corner last week. Is this the week they get off the schneid? Why not? There are lousy pickings this week. I really don’t feel strong about any picks, so take a couple of shots of Cuban coffee and call 52nd Street Irwin and say “give me the fins -4”. Stranger things have happened. The under is 41 and with the rain last night, it also might be a play here.
The Jets visit Buffalo as a 3 point favorite. The hapless Bills, bitten by the injury bug big time this year, start a rookie QB, and that always catches a bettor's eye. Give the 3 as the J E T S get a road win. The under is 37, which is low, but a 21-10 Jets win keeps it under.
SUICIDE POOL.
Another tough week.
For us its down to the Cowboys or the Eagles. Our heart says Philly, but our heads say take the home favourite.
Rumpole: Cowpokes.
Feet of Clay: Holding his nose and closing his eyes, and with a heavy heart, he picks the Lions over his beloved Bears.
David Markus: Chargers.
Miguel De La Over: Dallas.
By the way, the very best sports today is Baseball. Can the METS hang on? Will Philly take it on the final day? Will there be a one game playoff tomorrow? The Marlins are right in the middle of this, as they play the Mets at Shea Stadium. Meanwhile the CUBS are division winners this year with Sweet Lou as their first year Manager. We are looking forward to a great October classic.
See You Tomorrow, The First Monday in October, with our bumbershoot.
I have several a couple of comments on the conflict office debacle which I have not seen much about. 1. I, and I am sure numerous other criminal trial lawyers did not apply because the application had embarassing questions about the life of the applicant which would be public record. Any recovering alcoholic, drug addict or person who had been arrested or disciplined by the bar would not receive serious consideration or be appointed. You can get elected if you have those things in your past, i.e. the president or pd of broward, but NOT appointed by a governor. That eliminated from consideration probably 20% of the 500 wheel attorneys doing the dirty work for the judges of Miami, handling the worst cases that the pd conflicted off because brummer has a bunch of lazy 20 year veterans who are overpaid and no longer have the aggressiveness and enthusiasm of young attorneys out of law school. 2. If this system is not replaced I suggest that the 5 districts use this as an opportunity to purchase or build a small office building near the Miami courthouse where the conflict office can have its office AND where all criminal depos are done for dade, preferably within a half mile of the gerstein building. it is time to do away with depos at the sao and pd, a neutral site is necessary and the state can make up some of the money for these offices by eliminating depos in nonviolent felonies and felonies where there is no hfo status and the legislature should pass a law that victims of agg. assault, agg. battery and other offenses who file police reports and demand the arrest of people and then want the charges dropped should face a penalty for costs of initiating a prosecution and then failing to appear for prefiling conference etc. or come up with some other remedy for the thousands of cases a year that enter the system and then are nolle prossed several weeks later, you know all the boyfriend girlfriend bullshit like a burglary arrest when someone comes back to the apartment to pick their clothes. It is time to start doing away with depos in most felony cases, we are one of the only states that have them and they are such a pain in the ass and the witnesses show up 1/3rd of the time so we should have a motion and court order for depos in 2nd and 3rd degree felony cases. I would say that at best 25% of my cases yielded worthwhile info from the depos. 3.If the conflict offices are upheld I have a news flash for the approximately 1000 attorneys statewide who will no longer get felony cases on a regualar basis and the ones doing the most griping are the death penalty and life felony people: STEAL AND MARKET. that's right boys and girls, advertise and take the cases from the conflict office by letting the felons know how much they will be screwed by having their murder case handled by a man who drafted wills for 15 years. So you can either keep whining like little schoolgirls or you can roll up your sleeves and fight.Pick up a mirror- how many of you have tried to market yourselves to get cases or made your availability known that you will take cases for the same amount of money the wheel paid, how many advertisments are there where you say I will defend the armed robbery for 2000 with no money down, that's how the wheel worked. None. that's what I thought. stop your bitching and 10 of you should buy a small building and start your own sy gaer type of office and steal the conflict offices caseload. Oh , none of you thought of that, just bitch to each other. take the offices caseload you dummies.
ReplyDeleteRump, be nice tomorrow when you see Blecher, Freedman, and Blake. Their fancy pants Gators and butt boy Teebow got their orange butts kicked, just blasted at home. Can you help them wave "bye bye" to their National Championship pipe dreams. Say Bye bye Teebow. Say bye bye top 20 rankings. Say OUCH. That hurt.
ReplyDeleteSomebody wrote this week "Dont playa hate the Mishk".
ReplyDeleteASA here and couldn't agree more. He is so old -he's new. He's retro- a throwback to an earlier date and time. He's the ring a ding ding Sammy, Dean and Jerry Klein of my generation. We love the Mishk.
Saw Mish this week, may be a good time for his critics to shut the hell up.
ReplyDeleteWOW what poison 12:16 its a shame your grades wern't good enough to get into Florida but your mommy and daddy had enough moola to get you into one of those nawtern public schools you know like Havard or UM !!! lighten up will you ,you GATOR phobes get a life !!!!!
ReplyDeleteLove Da Mishk. Hate da Gators.
ReplyDelete1:49- I'd venture to say that you are Rick, Blecher, or Stan. Hung over. Eyes red from crying and rolling on the floor in a fetal position moaning over and over again- "I can't believe he made that field goal.Nooooooo. I can't believe he made that field goal. Mama."
ReplyDeleteI'm blogging from the Game. In mu considered legal opinion...Trent Green sucks. 2 interceptions. No excuses. 7 lousy points and my phone is getting ruined with this rain.
ReplyDeleteI write in acknowledgement of the greatness of Vanilla Wade.
ReplyDeleteAre there any doubters (haters) left??
Finf crushed by Huggy Bear's kid. Yippee!
ReplyDeleteFear the Q
ReplyDeleteLove the Mishk
Hate the Gators
Blog sentiments to live by.
The Cowpokes beat the 0-3 now 0-4 Rams and you want props for Vanilla Wade? See me after they get crushed by any AFC team with a winning record.
ReplyDelete4-0 for Veedub. Stop being bitter, Rump. Dolphins suck and Steelers aer losing to Cards. AFC is overrated quite frankly. COlts and Pats are great teams, but who else?
ReplyDeleteDenver? Bengals? Ravens? Shit and more shit. You yourself said haves and nots and Dallas in haves. Why get bitter now? B/C of Dolphs?
Aren't you used to those feelings after games?
THE CAPTAIN REPORTS:
ReplyDelete25% of the season done. Rumpole goes 5-3 this week and is now
is 16-9-2 and $100 bets put you up $725 for the year.
Jump on the bandwagon and throw some dough to the bookie.
CAPTAIN OUT ......
It's past midnight on September 30th, and all campaign reports are now due for the 3rd quarter by Oct 10, 2007.
ReplyDeleteA service provided in association with a Captain wanna-be
Captain,
ReplyDeleteAs a devout believer in Rump, I have him at 5-4 for yesterday.
Won:
Lions plus 3
DET-CHI over 45
PHI-NYG under 47 1/2
Pack -3
NYJ-BUF under 37
Lost:
PHI -3
Mia-4
MIA-OAK under 41
NYJ-3
Rump is still the man, however. He declared no strong feelings on any games, but still came out ahead.
Last week, in the probably 25 weeks I have picked game, including last season, was I believe my worst week. I am not sure I have ever had a losing week. That is a fairly astouding statement for someone who publicly picks games to say.
ReplyDeleteHowever, defeat is the best teacher, and some introspective analysis is in order.
What were my mistakes: 1) I abandoned my trends- Did not go with Arizona over Steelers, and KC over San Diego. 2) Without a strong feeling I felt pressure to do something and made way too many picks. I had no business calling The Dolphins a winner, and picked against too many home dogs- Buffalo and the Giants. The real plays were the Lions and Over, and Giants/Philly Under and should have left it at that with maybe the Jets/Bills under as well. I have learned from this mistakes and they will not happen again.
So- Avoid home dogs and never pick more than 4 games or props. To go 5-4 is a sure way to lose money.
Hey Oldtimers-
ReplyDeleteIn 1982, was Judge Henderson in circuit court or county court?
Thanks
Newtimer