FRIDAY MORNING QUARTERBACKING

ANALYSIS

What an interesting night election night was! Word has it that Shelly Schwartz is now breathing normally and may be able to return to work in a few weeks. We can't help but feel very happy if not relieved that Judges Murphy and Leifman were rewarded with well deserved wins. Judge Leifman in particular has had his share of election night disappointments in the past. We send him a "WELL DONE SIR" and know he will continue being the judge we are all proud to appear before.

Lets look at a few races:

RUNOFF: JOE FERNANDEZ VS. ASA MICHAEL BIENSTOCK:

The totals from Tuesday night were:
Cecilia Armenteros-Chavez
25.47%
33,447
Michael A. Bienstock
32.86%
43,152
Jose L. 'Joe' Fernandez
41.67%
54,712

131,311

Joe Fernandez looks good in this race. He had a great endorsement by the Herald. He has a good political organization running, and if one “assumes” that Ms. Chavez took some votes away from Mr. Fernandez (assuming the voters vote along ethic lines in a majority of the votes cast) then Mr. Fernandez will get a well deserved win.

RUNOFF: MARISA TINKLER MENDEZ VS. CATHERINE PARKS:
(scchhhwing!)

The totals from Tuesday night were:
Marisa Tinkler Mendez
30.32%
40,624
Mario Garcia Jr.
28.77%
38,548
Catherine 'Cathy' Parks
40.90%
54,794

133,966

This is a bit tougher to call. What happened here?

Did Mendez and Parks split the “female vote”?
Or did Garcia take votes away from Mendez in the “Hispanic Vote?”

This is Ms. Parks second try at a judicial race, and her second run-off. We admire her tenacity. We think she has a good political organization set to go, but don’t count out Ms. Mendez, who has a great group of criminal defense attorneys behind her. The thinking here is that it will come down to how much support Ms. Parks will get from the civil community. That translates into money. A big media push by either candidate gets the win here.

RUNOFF: MANNO-SCHURR VS-SANCHEZ GRONLIER:
HYPHEN HEAVEN:

The totals from Tuesday night were:

Valerie R. Manno Schurr
41.13%
53,676
Jose R. Sanchez-Gronlier
33.01%
43,081
Rima Catherine Bardawil
25.86%
33,744

130,501

[Memo to Rima Bardawil: get a hypen. You were out-hyphenated.]

We sniff an upset here. We can’t pinpoint exactly why we feel it, but something inside of us says “Sanchez-Gronlier”. What a story that would be! From clerk to Judge. Mr. Sanchez-Gronlier has a lot to be proud of already, but he is clearly an underdog here, because we believe that Ms. Manno-Schurr has the money -or ability to raise the money needed- to win. But she should not rest on her laurels. Stranger things have happened.

FINAL RUN-OFF ANALYSIS:

The next election is the general election. In this past Gubernatorial primary election, the Republican turn out was weak, as they were confident Mr. Crist would get the nomination. The Democrats had a real fight, and turned out in large numbers to vote.

Republicans will be out in force the next time around. That should translate into a bigger Hispanic turnout. But as we have seen in general elections, Miami is still a Democratic party town. Who will benefit from the general election? Our thought is female candidates will benefit, and that spells advantage Manno-Schurr over Sanchez-Gronlier.

OCCAM'S RAZOR?

The totals for Tuesday night were:

Don S. Cohn
50.77%
63,271
Bonnie Lano Rippingille
49.23%
61,359

124,630

This is the race we cannot figure out. All election night long, Don Cohn clung to a slim lead. There is talk that the rain held back voters in Hispanic neighborhoods, allowing the North Dade block to push Shelly Schwartz, Larry Schwartz, and Dennis Murphy over the top against Hispanic opponents.

But what was going on here?

In the last 15 years, female candidates have been almost unbeatable when matched up against a male candidate. You can go as far back as Judge Martin Kahn losing to Mindy Glazer; Judge Phil Knight was also beaten by a female challenger;
Karen Mills-Francis beat Judge Goldstein 6 years ago and whipped Mr. Millan last night. Judge Pando beat Dave Alschuler six years ago, Challenger Myriam Lehr beat Judge Leifman previously. We could go on and on. And yet Don Cohn was able to beat an incumbent Female Judge who had lots of money and lots of endorsements.

Can anyone explain this one?

Perhaps Friar William of Ockham had it right: the simplest explanation is the best. People just didn't like Judge Rippingille.



Friar William of Ockham (not Don Cohn).

See you in court.