VERDICT WATCH

NOT GUILTY. 
Now go to sleep. Peace out. 

PRE VERDICT FALLOUT: 

THE CAPTAIN REPORTS:

Breaking. SA Angela Corey fires her IT DIRECTOR .....


State Attorney Angela Corey has fired her information technology director after he testified in a George Zimmerman trial hearing that he was concerned the state did not turn over information to Zimmerman's defense team.

According to Jacksonville.com, a state attorney investigator delivered a note to Ben Kruidbos' home at 7:30 a.m. Friday that said he “can never again be trusted to step foot in this office.”

Kruidbos, 42, was on paid administrative leave since May 28, according to the report.

Kruidbos told his attorney in April that he was concerned assistant state attorney Bernie de la Rionda had not turned over his report to the defense, which included photos of a person holding a gun, a photo of a marijuana plant and a text message about a gun transaction.

The report said Kruidbos initially received a pay raise for his work in the case.

CAP OUT .....



Saturday Morning Question: Will the jury reach a verdict today? We think yes. We rarely see a six member jury deliberate beyond ten or twelve hours. Twelve member juries are a different kettle of fish. The possible permutations for jurors to align with each other (expressed as 12! or 12 factorial or 6! is 6x5x4x3x2x1) is the multiple of the numbers within the set.  6! yields 720 possible juror alliances (not juror decisions, which is set as "Guilty", "Not Guilty" or "no decision") while 12! = 479,001,600 possible juror alliances.   The mathematics of this is a bit difficult for this blog, as the number of possible permutations is merely the starting point. That number is actually reduced (trust us) since their possible positions are limited to three: G, NG, undecided. We've done the math and the outcome is below. 

Juror alliances are what form verdicts. Juror #6 and juror#5 agree on a set of facts of a case. They form an alliance which may or may not lead to a decision. The more jurors that form an alliance towards a particular verdict, the more likely that verdict occurs. This is expressed as "The Rumpole Verdict Probability Factor (RVPF)"
RVPF=100% when Juror alliance (JA)=6 (or 12 for 12 person juries).  

2JA= RVPF 25%; 3JA= RVPF 65%; 4JA=RVPF 90%; 
5JA=RVPF 98%; 6JA= RVPF 100%.
The tipping point is when half the jury agrees. When 3 of six jurors form a unified opinion then the chance that opinion becomes the final verdict is 65%: more then just half the jury (50%). When a fourth juror joins the alliance, 9 out of ten times their opinion becomes the final verdict, and when a fifth juror joins the alliance, the possibility of a hung jury goes down to 2% or less. 

So the key analysis is where are the six jurors when they start? Have any formed an alliance, and if so, how many? 

We shall see. 


Friday night update: Jurors concluded deliberations for the evening. Will begin tomorrow at 9am. They are sequestered. 

It really galls us to even acknowledge that some simple second degree murder case is worthy of all this media attention/hysteria. But then again, no one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the general public. 

So here is your verdict watch post. Comment all you want on the case, the attorneys, the closings, etc. Just please, no one ask - as we overheard some commentator do- why the prosecution didn't call the defendant to the stand to admit or deny it was his voice on the 911 tape. Please. We just can't take it. 

Rainy weekend. Try and enjoy it. 
See you in court on Monday.