WHAT HAPPENED WEDNESDAY IN THE MARKETS

 The bond yield saved the day, the week, and the economy. 

As of Wednesday morning the idiot was holding firm on his 1930s tariffs plan. And how well did they work back then ? Don’t get depressed (hint) if you don’t know the answer.

 But then investors began fleeing the safety of the US by not buying the 10 year treasury bond. The price fell and the yield soared over 4%. There was no more faith in the US. The Treasury and Commerce Secretaries met with the idiot in the idiot’s office and explained it to him in simple terms. When investors lose faith in treasury bonds - traditionally the safest place in the word to store money - the game is over. We go from recession to depression and the economy is wrecked. 

Lo and behold within the hour the idiot reversed course and the markers rallied over 9%. Less than half  of what they have lost. But still a record breaking rally. Which leads us to this warning. The biggest rallies occur during bear markets. So be careful.  We are not out of the woods. 

In the final analysis we are in a scenario where the markets are reacting to political news and not economic issues. Unlike the credit collapse of 2007-08 there is no fundamental weakness in the economy other than the idiot trying to lead it. The economy is strong. Our president is weak. So we are hostage to his whims. 

But what will not go away is people need iPhones. And the AI revolution is here. Apple is a great stock. And an amazing buy under 200. Nvidia is an amazing company with a five year moat around its AI leading chips. It was the buy of a lifetime under 100 and it’s still great value under 120-130 as it’s a 200 plus stock at the end of the year if the idiot can stay out of the way. Amazon is the strongest retailer in the world. It can navigate the tariff issue better than any other retailer. It’s a great buy under 200.  

So there is our take. 

Bonds saved us. 

For now. 

SAO SPAM ALERT AND MARKET UPDATE

 Tuesday update: Markets are set to open higher. Rumpole advises caution for the short term but buying for the long term (meaning you do not need this money for the next 12-24 months )  Apple and Amazon below 200 are strong long term buys. Same for Nvidia under 100.  But remember the idiot is imposing more tariffs on China and 🇨🇳 cannot capitulate, so settle in for a long trade war.  What the idiot doesn’t get is China makes products integral to US products like cars and many electronics (including many for munitions) and some pharmaceuticals that cannot be made anywhere else right now.  All that will happen and is starting to happen right now  is that middlemen in Europe are buying the components to resell to the US at … wait for it- higher costs.  

If you need some money then use today to sell into the small strength to get out.  As we will see markets mostly lower tomorrow and the week on the China news - offset by some likely tariff deals with Japan, Korea, and that massive US trading partners Sri Lanka and Vatican City. He’s such an idiot.  

The SAO has had their email hacked. Lawyers are getting spam email about non existent zoom meetings and money owed. 

Do what we do. 

Don’t open their emails. Ever. Like on any day for any reason.  If it’s important enough they will call. Then don’t take their call. Because they can’t be trusted and it’s all nonsense anyway (“victim wants max blah blah blah “ like how the adults talk in the Charlie Brown cartoons. ). 

UPDATE  Now we learn some SAO misdemeanor supervisor is unhinged and ordering underlings to revoke bond on driving cases because they are feeling insignificant and don’t understand that we get people bond on murder cases and in only rare rare circumstances should anyone be held in jail on a misdemeanor pending trial. 

To put them in their place - if you decide to open their email and send it to us we will review the case and splash them all over the blog as a lawyer dumb and inexperienced enough to try and put people in jail pretrial for a driving case. And if they think it’s good enough for court then they should have no problem with the publicity we will bring them - until someone with experience steps in and shuts them down. 

MARKET UPDATE 

We are not at a bottom.  Don’t try and bottom fish yet. As Jim Cramer said on Friday. If you bottom fish Friday you sleep with the fishes Monday. 

What we have this week is the idiot threatening China with additional 50% tariffs Thursday unless they remove their tariffs and agree to fund more Jackie Chan movies. Or something equally as stupid.  

Just watch. Nvidia fell to 87 before rallying.  You’re not going to catch the bottom.  But buying it at 105 this week or next will make you a whole lot of money in late 2025-2030. So just be patient.  

Watch Vietnam. They are actively working to remove all tariffs on all trade between Vietnam and the US.  If they make a deal others will follow and the market will rebound  

What do you call a tyrannosaurus under stress? 

Nervous Rex. 

Trade wisely. And don’t open SAO emails. Your life will improve measurably. 

WHEN YOU'RE RIGHT YOU'RE RIGHT

 Feb 2015 When you are right you are right!

WE AGREE 

NO EXCUSES! 

And when you're right- you are right. "Tariffs are a sure road to doom and disaster." 

Well said Mitt. 

WHAT TO DO? 

We do not love giving investment advice on this platform. But here's a few things to keep in mind. The greatest stock investor of our generation- Warren Buffet said this: "When people are fearful be greedy. When people are greedy be fearful."  The VIX- known as the "fear index" went from mid-teens during the bull market last month to over 30 on Friday. People are fearful.  So do with Warren Buffet said to do. Be greedy. 

Amazon is, after Friday, trading at 15 times cash flow- the lowest in its entire history. Free cash flow is expected to grow 33% a year for the next five years. Its forward PE is similar to 2009. They are building their own chips. They currently deploy 750,000 robots. They have the 3rd largest digital ad business. $amzn is a Rumpole buy. 

So is Nvidia. It is the leader in AI chips and its moat is at least five years wide. There are 300 Billion with a B commitments to new data center spending for FY 2026 and that is firm. and 95% of that spending will include putting Nvidia's new generation of chips in those data centers. Nvidia is the only AI chip game in town for the next five years. If you have ANY worries (and Nvidia has literally doubled our own considerable wealth in the last 18 months) then Taiwan Semi Conductor is a solid second choice. Semiconductors are exempt from the tariffs and $TSM has committed to investing 100 Billion with B dollars in US manufacturing plants over the next four years. #TSM is playing the game and the current administration the way it needs to be played. 

Final thought. The 20 worst days in stock market history since 1970 have been followed by ten of the best days over the next month. 

Look at it another way. There is not one time- NOT ONE- that a stock market correction has not been followed by a larger rally, Not one time. True- the 2007 downturn took five years to recover. But that was an anomaly. Usually a large downturn is followed by a larger rally within six months. Think of what happened during Covid. The shutdown caused a massive selloff (we began our third serious accumulation of Amazon at that point- our first was 1999) which was followed by a sustained rally. If you do not need the money today, tomorrow, or next week, the time to buy is coming up. 

The market has not hit a bottom. The bottom occurs when everyone who is afraid has sold all they have. There are technical indicators we use to find a bottom- and it is near. But if you do not care to time the market, and have a 1-5 year horizon on investing, then just start buying. 10 share of Amazon and Nvidia every day until you've spent your nest egg. Then relax, have a beer and watch some baseball.  

If you have ANY concerns- just reread what Warren Buffet said to do- then do it. 

NO FOOLIN

 From DOM's blog: 

The Henry Latimer Center for Professionalism and the Standing Committee on Professionalism have named Chief Judge Cecilia M. Altonaga of the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Florida and Judge Miguel de la O of the 11th Judicial Circuit as co-winners of the 2025 William M. Hoeveler Judicial Professionalism Award.

The annual award recognizes active judges who exemplify strength of character, service, and competence as a jurist, lawyer, and public servant.

Chief Judge Altonaga and Judge de la O “demonstrate the ideals of professionalism and justice while inspiring others to do the same,” according to the Center for Professionalism.

Rumpole says: Well done to both judges. As to our milieu, Judge De La O has now long been known as the go-to judge for fairness and decency in the REGJB. No DeSantis drone he. 

As to our post on April 1, the sad thing is that some readers thought the press release from the SAO no longer cowering to the victim's wishes was true. Would that it were so. But we do not live in a time of heroes. We live in a time of cowards. 

Which brings us to the president's tariffs. 

You will be glad to know that Bangladesh won't be pushing the US around anymore. The President has slapped that economic powerhouse with double digit tariffs. And the good news for South Floridians is that if you want to make a reservation for a weekend at a beach motel in Dania, you can now do so, as Canadians are staying away from the US in droves. 

Can you blame them? 

And on and on it goes, because we live in a time of cowards and not heroes, as large law firms and universities are demonstrating in droves. 

A NEW DAY

 Some positive news from the SAO today in a news release: 

“As of today the Miami Dade State attorney’s office will no longer make plea offers based on the victim wanting the max.  We will now evaluate a case based on principles of justice and individual facts and not let the understandable emotions of a victim dictate how we proceed.” 

Rumpole says : long overdue. 

Did you know ? Apple 🍎was founded today on April 1 1976? 

Rumors of a state of Florida Doge- like committee are circulating.  Things being considered - 1) eliminating bathrooms for judicial chambers; 2) eliminating diversity training for all state employees; 3) implementing minimum mandatory prison sentences for being homeless ; 4) eliminating drug court and veterans court as wasteful efforts that embrace DEI ; 5) criminalizing the use of transgender pronouns; 6)criminalizing the existence of charitable food banks in communities; 7) mandating all state employees receive two hours of training in the science that there is no such thing as global warming; 8) requiring all state agencies to begin every meeting with a prayer recognizing that Jesus Christ is the lord and savior. 9) Any state employee with a degree from Colombia University between 2010-2025 will be summarily dismissed  

Sounds good to us.